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Featured Last Updated Nov 4 2025, 9:41 PM

MAMDANI WINS: New York Mayoral Election Betting Odds

Ben Mendelowitz
Ben Mendelowitz Sports Betting Expert
10 minute read
MAMDANI WINS: New York Mayoral Election Betting Odds

Image Credit: © Yannick Peterhans/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

November 4, 9:33 PM ET: MSNBC has called the New York City Mayoral Race for Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani.

Today is election day, and the New York City Mayoral Race is one that has sparked conversation on both sides of the aisle. Follow along with us today as voting takes place to elect the new mayor of New York City.

Polls close in 15 minutes, and Kalshi has Mamdani's odds at a startling 95% chance of victory. We will now shortly who the winner will be.

The polls are currently closed and we will know who won the New York City Mayoral Race shortly.

Update as of November 4th, 8:44 PM ET:

  • Mamdani's odds have remained stable, currently sitting at 95%.
  • Cuomo's odds now sit at 6%, lower than the 13% he was at this morning.
  • Silwa's implied probability of winning remains the same at 1%

The New York City mayoral race has officially moved from competitive to lopsided — and the betting markets are treating it as all but decided. While political polling suggests voter sentiment, betting odds show where money is actually being placed, giving insight into real-time sentiment among bettors, sportsbooks, and predictive markets.

Updated on 11/5/25

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Below, we break down the latest implied odds movement for the top candidates in the race: Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, and Curtis Sliwa.

New York Mayoral Odds — Market Movement

Odds shown as implied probability of winning (%)

Key Takeaways

  • Zohran Mamdani is now a prohibitive favorite, rising from a coin flip in June (54.5%) to a dominant 97.0% probability.
  • Andrew Cuomo’s odds collapsed, dropping from 47.6% to single-digit longshot (8.8%).
  • Curtis Sliwa remains a deep longshot, holding steady in the 1–3% range.

Despite high name recognition, Sliwa and Cuomo are not attracting betting momentum. Mamdani, however, has generated consistent inflows every month since June — a pattern sportsbooks typically equate with unavoidable inevitability.

You can place a wager on the upcoming NYC mayor race on platforms like Kalshi - check out this Kalshi referral code if you do!

How Accurate Are Betting Odds vs. Polls?

Odds vs. Polls – Presidential Elections (2008–2024)

We analyzed five past U.S. presidential races to compare which metric did a better job predicting the winner:

YearWinnerWinner OddsWinner Poll (%)Runner-upRunner-up OddsRunner-up Poll (%)Odds RightPolls RightBoth Right
2024Donald Trump-16049Kamala Harris14049✅ Yes➖ Tie❌ No
2020Joe Biden-17551Donald Trump15044✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
2016Donald Trump+37542Hillary Clinton-55046❌ No❌ No❌ No
2012Barack Obama-45049Mitt Romney36048✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
2008Barack Obama-90053John McCain80042✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
2004George W. Bush-14049John Kerry12049✅ Yes➖ Tie❌ No
2000George W. Bush-15048Al Gore11046✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
1996Bill Clinton-100052Bob Dole60041✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
1992Bill Clinton-80049George H. W. Bush50037✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
1988George H. W. Bush-70056Michael Dukakis40044✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
1984Ronald Reagan-70059Walter Mondale45041✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
1980Ronald Reagan-18047Jimmy Carter16044✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
1976Jimmy Carter+10048Gerald Ford-12049❌ No❌ No❌ No
1972Richard Nixon-10,00062George McGovern5,00038✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
1968Richard Nixon-22043Hubert Humphrey18042✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
1964Lyndon Johnson-3,30064Barry Goldwater2,00036✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
1960John Kennedy+11051Richard Nixon-13049❌ No✅ Yes❌ No
1956Dwight Eisenhower-60059Adlai Stevenson50040✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
1952Dwight Eisenhower-12051Adlai Stevenson-12049➖ Tie✅ Yes❌ No
1948Harry Truman+150045Thomas Dewey-180050❌ No❌ No❌ No
1944Franklin Roosevelt-34051Thomas Dewey30048✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
1940Franklin Roosevelt-20052Wendell Willkie20048✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes
1936Franklin Roosevelt-25056Alf Landon18044✅ Yes✅ Yes✅ Yes

Results (Over Last Five Election Cycles):

  • Odds correctly predicted 4 of the last 5 presidential winners (80%)
  • Polling accuracy lagged at 60%

Betting markets adjust instantly as new information emerges — polling does not. In tight races, bettors move first; pollsters follow.

Bettors are often better forecasters than polls — because they have skin in the game.

When we apply that logic to New York City’s mayoral race, the takeaway is clear:

Mamdani isn’t just leading — he’s already been priced in as the winner.

Final Outlook

With Mamdani sitting at 97% implied probability, the betting market views this race as essentially over. Polls may continue to fluctuate, but the money is speaking loudly.

Zohran Mamdani is the overwhelming betting favorite to become New York City's next mayor.

For a full breakdown of the odds vs polls analysis, along with methodology and sources, please see the dataset here. 

You can see where we have been tracking the NYC Mayoral Election betting odds here.

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Ben Mendelowitz

Ben Mendelowitz

Ben Mendelowitz is a Digital PR expert who has a keen interest in a variety of sports. His research has been featured in USA Today, Sports Illustrated, Patch and Fortune, amongst other media outlets. Ben is based in London, and is a big fan of Chelsea. More from Ben Mendelowitz
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