Palmeiras vs Botafogo Club World Cup Predictions, Odds and Pick

Joseph Beguiristain Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

Palmeiras will face Botafogo on Saturday at noon ET in the knockout stage of the Club World Cup at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA.

The first matchup between teams from the same nation in the competition is set for an exciting Brazilian showdown in Philly.

Palmeiras and Botafogo, two of the most intriguing teams from the group stage, will face off in the opening match of the Round of 16.

With just four points separating them in the Brazilian Série A prior to this tournament, both Verdão and Estrela Solitária have claimed the Copa Libertadores title in the last four seasons.

This match is expected to be tightly contested and highly intense, with bookmakers slightly favoring Abel Ferreira’s Palmeiras, giving them a 48% chance of victory (+108 on the moneyline) in the Palmeiras vs. Botafogo 1X2 market.

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Analysis of the Match

In the round of 16, it's an all-Brazilian matchup as Palmeiras faces Botafogo. Abel Ferreira's Palmeiras is the favorite, as they are expected to compete for titles in South America. However, this tournament has shown that Renato Paiva's Botafogo is a team to be taken very seriously.

After defeating the Seattle Sounders on Matchday 1, Botafogo was expected to exit the tournament against strong teams like PSG and Atlético Madrid. To everyone's surprise, they managed to beat PSG 1-0, nearly securing their place in the next round.

Based in Rio de Janeiro, Botafogo needed to avoid a 3-0 defeat against the European giants. For 87 minutes, they held control of the game. However, a late goal from Antoine Griezmann meant they conceded for the first time at the Club World Cup. This lapse in concentration cost them the chance to keep two clean sheets against two of Europe's top teams.

On the other hand, Palmeiras remains undefeated but is likely disappointed with their performances in what was perceived as a weaker group. Their only victory came against Al Ahly, who were missing their best striker. After scoring an own goal, the Egyptians were caught off guard while trying to equalize. Palmeiras also struggled to score against Porto and defended unusually poorly against Inter Miami.

Both teams will believe they can progress, and rightly so. However, Botafogo has the edge based on their performances thus far, making it a risky decision to bet against them.

Palmeiras Analysis and Form

Abel Ferreira's team may not always play the most attractive football, but they know how to win. Palmeiras is a tough opponent for any side.

However, after keeping two clean sheets against Porto and Al Ahly, Inter Miami managed to score twice against them. This will be a concern for Verdão fans as they prepare to face their old Brazilian rivals.

The good news for Palmeiras is that they have a wealth of attacking options. Flaco Lopez, Paulinho, Facundo Torres, Estevão, and Allan have all stepped up and have been reliable for the team. However, their big-money signing, Vitor Roque, needs to improve his performance or risk losing his spot in the lineup.

The only criticism of Palmeiras is that they have not yet performed to their full potential. Ferreira's main priority is to keep the team competitive, and they have a genuine chance of reaching the quarter-finals.

Botafogo Analysis and Form

Botafogo's victory over PSG made headlines during the group stage. Luis Enrique remarked that Botafogo possessed the best defensive unit his team has faced all season—a significant compliment from the Spaniard.

He may not be wrong; Jair Cunha has emerged as one of the standout players at the Club World Cup, solidly anchoring the defense. Flanking him are Alex Telles and Vitinho, both of whom provide strong support.

Igor Jesus contributed two goals and earned two Player of the Match awards for his performances against Seattle Sounders and PSG. The Brazilian forward is putting in maximum effort for his current club before his upcoming transfer to Nottingham Forest.

Club captains Marlon Freitas and Gregore effectively provide a strong layer of protection in front of the defense. Under Renato Paiva's management, the team has evolved into one that is extremely difficult to break down. They could frustrate Palmeiras and capitalize on counterattacks.

Head-to-Head Analysis 

Botafogo has established itself as a formidable opponent for Palmeiras, remaining unbeaten in their last five encounters.

Their most recent match in March 2025 ended in a goalless draw. However, in November 2024, Botafogo secured a 3-1 victory away from home, with goals from Gregore and a brace by Savarino. The two clubs also faced off in last season's Copa Libertadores, where Botafogo triumphed, advancing 4-3 on aggregate.

Palmeiras last defeated Botafogo in November 2023 in a thrilling match that ended 4-3. In that game, Palmeiras made an incredible comeback from a 3-0 deficit, winning with a dramatic goal from Murillo in the 99th minute.

Matches between these teams are typically exciting and high-scoring, as both sides have found the net in five of their last eight meetings.

Tension often accompanies these encounters, evident in the three red cards issued during their past eight contests since October 2022.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Palmeiras Possible Starting Lineup:
Weverton; Piquerez, Murilo, Gomez, Giay, Mayke, Mauricio, Rios, Veiga, Estevao, Paulinho.

Botafogo Possible Starting Lineup:
John; Telles, Barboza, Jair, Vitinho, Freitas, Gregore, Allan, Savarino, Artur, Jesus.

After their impressive performances against Inter Miami, it would be surprising if either Mauricio or Paulinho were not in the starting lineup for Palmeiras. Both players scored goals and demonstrated their ability to be significant threats on the wings, often cutting inside to create scoring opportunities.

Richard Rios and Raphael Veiga are expected to start in central midfield. They will be aggressive and aim to control possession.

Botafogo’s front three has proven to be incredibly dangerous at the Club World Cup. Palmeiras will need to monitor Igor Jesus, Jefferson Savarino, and Artur closely. These three players are energetic and work well together, making them challenging opponents to defend against.

Odds Discussion

Two months ago, when Palmeiras faced Botafogo in the Brasileiro, Palmeiras was the favorite, with odds of 1.70 (-143 moneyline) against their Round of 16 opponents, while Botafogo's odds were 5.75 (+475 moneyline), implying a 17.4% chance of victory. Despite being favorites in seven of their last ten matches against Botafogo, Palmeiras has only managed to win two of them.

Now, as they prepare for another all-Brazilian Round of 16 clash, Palmeiras again enters as the favorite. However, their winning odds have drifted since the last encounter in March, which ended in a 0-0 draw despite both teams registering 13 shots each.

Palmeiras can be backed on the -0.25 Asian Handicap line, meaning that a draw would return half of the punters' stakes. This option might provide some security, especially if one believes that Botafogo will manage to keep Palmeiras from scoring again, resulting in another low-scoring match.

Bookmakers also anticipate a low-scoring game, with Palmeiras vs. Botafogo starting with one of the smallest Asian goal lines in the Round of 16. The 2.0 Asian goal line means that if there are just two goals in the match, the stakes will be returned in full, while three goals will yield full profits.

Despite the last match ending in a 0-0 draw, six of the last ten head-to-head contests between these teams have seen three or more goals.

PICK: Both Teams To Score - Yes (+105)

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Joseph Beguiristain

Joseph Beguiristain is a South Florida native with 10-plus years of sports media experience. Before joining VegasInsider in July 2021, he wrote for the Sun-Sentinel and Miami Heat. More from Joseph Beguiristain