Fluminense vs. Al Hilal Predictions, Odds and Pick

Fluminense and Al Hilal entered the tournament with modest odds of success. However, both teams now find themselves just two matches away from the final.

The Brazilian and Saudi clubs have proven to be the biggest surprises of the competition, achieving remarkable and well-deserved victories against the 2023 Champions League finalists, Inter Milan and Manchester City. Both teams remain unbeaten and have a solid track record against European rivals. Under the management of Renato Portaluppi and Simone Inzaghi, they will clash in Orlando in what can be considered the 'duel of the underdogs.

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Updated on 7/4/25

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Analysis of the Match

Fluminense and Al Hilal defied expectations in the round of 16, defeating European powerhouses that appeared poised for a deep run in the tournament. Now, one of these clubs stands on the brink of reaching the semifinals.

The Club World Cup has proven to be a rewarding opportunity for all participating teams. The Brazilian clubs have had a strong showing, with each successfully advancing past the group stage. However, for Fluminense, reaching the semifinals would serve as a significant boost.

After struggling against relegation in the Brazilian Serie A last season, the financial rewards from this tournament could help them close the gap on rivals like Palmeiras and Flamengo, who have been performing better in the domestic league. On the other hand, Al Hilal already possesses the financial clout to make substantial investments in the transfer market, making the prize money less crucial for them.

Their main objective is to enhance the reputation of the Saudi Pro League. Several clubs in the Gulf region are striving to attract top talent, even as some fans express concerns regarding the league's overall quality. Simone Inzaghi's squad took a significant step toward quelling skepticism about their capabilities by defeating Manchester City 4-3 in the previous round.

Now, they find themselves in the more advantageous half of the draw and are eager to secure a spot in the final. In the last match, both Al Hilal and Fluminense spent considerable time without possession, recording 31% and 32% possession rates, respectively.

This upcoming game promises to unfold differently for both teams. Given the difficulty bookmakers are facing in separating the two sides, we can expect an exciting back-and-forth encounter.

Fluminense Analysis and Form

Fluminense has been remarkable in this tournament. Initially aiming to advance beyond the group stage, they surpassed expectations by defeating the beaten Champions League finalists, Inter Milan, in the round of 16.

From their very first match at the Club World Cup, Fluzão has emerged as a formidable competitor. They earned a 0-0 draw against Dortmund, a result that belied their dominance, as they registered twice as many shots as the German team and created more significant scoring opportunities.

The victory over Inter stands out as the pinnacle of Renato Portaluppi's squad's campaign thus far. Fluminense started the match with intensity, pressing the Nerazzurri high up the pitch and quickly taking the lead. Their defensive efforts were equally impressive, as they successfully stifled Inter's attacks until Hercules sealed the win in stoppage time.

When facing Al Hilal, Fluminense will aim for another strong start. Under Portaluppi’s guidance, they are not shy about engaging physically, which suggests we can expect plenty of fouls and hard tackles during the encounter.

Fluzão has demonstrated their readiness for a tough contest in their recent performances. Jhon Arias, the dynamic attacker who was particularly lively against Inter, will be eager to enjoy more possession in this matchup.

Al Hilal Analysis and Form

Al Hilal initially appeared overwhelmed by Manchester City in the first half, with Pep Guardiola’s side moving the ball with notable intensity and forcing six saves from goalkeeper Bono as they ramped up the pressure. However, after halftime, Simone Inzaghi’s team quickly turned the tables, scoring two rapid goals to take a 2-1 lead.

Erling Haaland equalized just minutes later, keeping Bono busy in the Al Hilal goal throughout the match. City managed a staggering 30 shots during regulation and extra time, but Al Hilal proved to be a significant threat on the counterattack, creating seven big chances—one more than Manchester City.

Additionally, Al Hilal faced Real Madrid during the Club World Cup, where Inzaghi’s squad earned a respectable 1-1 draw, performing well in the first half against the Spanish giants. The impressive performances against both Real Madrid and Manchester City, the top two favorites in the tournament's betting markets, provide Al Hilal with a wealth of confidence as they advance deeper into the Club World Cup.

Malcolm played a crucial role in Al Hilal's win over City, utilizing his speed to help push the team forward and creating numerous problems for Guardiola’s defense with his skillful runs. Meanwhile, Marcos Leonardo will be eager to maintain his scoring streak, having already netted three goals in the competition.

Head-to-Head

Al Hilal is quite familiar with Brazilian teams, having faced Flamengo twice in the last six years. In the 2019 Club World Cup semi-final, the Saudi club initially took the lead with a goal from Salem Al-Dawsari, but ultimately lost 3-1, with goals coming from De Arrascaeta, Bruno Henrique, and an own goal by Ali Al-Bulayhi.

Four years later, Al Za’eem got their revenge in another semi-final match, pulling off a thrilling 3-2 win thanks to two goals from Al-Dawsari and one from Luciano Vietto. Despite this victory, Al Hilal went on to lose the final to Real Madrid, finishing 5-3 in that encounter.

This Round of 16 match against Fluminense will mark Al Hilal’s 14th game against teams outside the AFC, where they have claimed six victories. For Fluminense, this will be their seventh match against non-South American opponents and their first against a Saudi Arabian club.

The Tricolor has only lost one of their previous encounters, suffering a 4-0 defeat to Manchester City in the 2023 final.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Fluminense's possible starting lineup:

Fabio; Samuel Xavier, Thiago Silva, Freytes, Fuentes; Martinelli, Hercules; Arias, Nonato, Canobbio; Cano.

Al Hilal possible starting lineup:

Bounou; Joao Cancelo, Al-Harbi, Koulibaly, Renan Lodi; Nasser Al-Dawsari, Ruben Neves, Milinkovic-Savic; Malcom, Marcos Leonardo, Kanno.

Fluminense is feeling the strain of a lengthy tournament. Midfielder Martinelli was forced to leave the pitch after just over an hour of play against Inter due to injury, casting doubt on his availability for the quarter-finals.

Otavio has been out for an extended period, having been sidelined since March with an Achilles tendon injury. Additionally, they will be without suspended left-back Rene, who received a second yellow card during the match against Inter.

On the other hand, Al Hilal is managing well despite the absence of Aleksandar Mitrovic, who is still recovering from injury. Suhayb Al Zaid has been out since April due to a cruciate ligament injury, and Hassan Al Tambakti missed the win over Manchester City because of a knee issue, putting his status for the upcoming match in jeopardy.

Musab Al Juwayr has returned from a knee injury and made a late substitute appearance against City. Unfortunately, captain Salem Al Dawsari is expected to miss the remainder of the tournament due to a hamstring injury.

Odds Discussion & Pick

Al Hilal advanced after a thrilling seven-goal encounter against Manchester City, where Marcos Leonardo scored twice, including the decisive goal in the 112th minute that secured their place in the quarter-finals. They enter this matchup as minor favorites at +160.

Their opponents, Fluminense, also showcased an impressive performance in their Round of 16 clash against Inter Milan. A goal just three minutes into the match set the tone for the Brazilians, who ultimately won 2-0 thanks to Hercules's powerful finish past Yann Sommer in goal for Inter. There isn’t much discrepancy in the odds, as bookmakers are finding it difficult to identify a clear favorite, with Fluminense taking on the role of the underdog in the early betting markets.

The Asian handicap line is set at 0.0, effectively creating a 'draw no bet' scenario. If the match ends in a draw and goes to extra time, bettors will receive their stake back. Given how closely matched these teams are, this approach could be a clever way to back either side to progress within 90 minutes. For those uncertain about which way the game might tilt, opting for the draw in the 1X2 market could be the most prudent choice.

We've seen several knockout matches go into extra time so far, and this trend may continue into the upcoming quarters and semi-finals. Bookmakers are not only challenged in selecting a winner but also in predicting the number of goals.

Al-Hilal's advancement to the quarter-finals is well-deserved. They remain unbeaten and have delivered standout performances against top teams like Real Madrid and Manchester City, not experiencing a competitive defeat since late February 2024.

Despite their strong showing, bookmakers are cautious, offering odds of +150 for Simone Inzaghi’s side to win, which suggests only a 40% probability of victory in regulation time.

However, Al-Hilal ranks fifth in both expected goals (xG) and big chances created, and after competing well with Europe's elite, they should be well-prepared to face the challenge from the Brazilians.

PICK: Al Hilal Tie No Bet (-125)

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