Inter Miami vs Porto Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Joseph Beguiristain Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

Inter Miami will face Porto on Thursday at 3:00 PM EDT in Club World Cup Match Day 2 action from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA.

Inter Miami and Javier Mascherano are optimistic that their lackluster first-half performance is behind them as they prepare to face Porto. Like Inter Miami, Porto also drew their opening match of the tournament 0-0 and comes into this game as -163 favorites.

With Lionel Messi and Luis Suárez leading the attack against a Porto team eager to score, this matchup promises to be an exciting encounter. Messi took five shots on goal against Al Ahly in Match Day 1. Porto will be well aware that Lionel Messi typically doesn’t require many chances before he finds the back of the net.

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Analysis of the Match

After both matches in Group A ended in goalless draws, both teams are now under pressure to secure vital points and break the deadlock.

For Inter Miami, finding their footing in this competition and achieving a win would be crucial, although it is considered unexpected. Playing at 'home' didn't help them in their first match against Al Ahly, where, despite having more opportunities, they lost in expected goals (xG) by a score of 1.28.

For Porto, a victory would solidify their position as group favorites and set them on course for the knockout stages. The balance of power currently tilts in favor of the Dragões, who are rated by BETSiE, our in-house model, with an 80.7% chance of progressing from Group A, compared to Miami's 28.3%.

Inter Miami enters the match buoyed by its star quality, although their tournament start has been underwhelming. Lionel Messi took five shots and hit the post against Al Ahly, generating only 0.17 xG.

Throughout the season, Inter Miami has averaged 11.3 shots per match in MLS, with a high shots-on-target rate of 5.6 per game and a conversion rate of 20%, resulting in 1.41 xG per match. The hosts will need to be more precise in the final third, especially from Messi and Suarez, to pose a genuine threat.

Porto will undoubtedly aim to neutralize these two key players by focusing on their midfield and cutting off the supply lines to Messi and Suarez.

A win for either side in this match will dramatically alter the dynamics, making it far more than just a second-round fixture.

Inter Miami Analysis and Form

The Herons may have been more active in the first game in terms of volume, but their quality of play left much to be desired. They took 13 shots, with only four hitting the target, resulting in a relatively low expected goals (xG) of 0.87.

Lionel Messi was at the forefront, attempting five shots, including a trademark free-kick that hit the post and a dramatic stoppage-time effort that grazed the bar. However, despite these attempts, they could not find the back of the net.

Remarkably, this was only the third goalless draw since Messi joined the team in 2023 and was in the starting lineup. In fact, there have only been five such matches in the club's relatively short history.

The statistics highlight a concerning trend: while Miami can create opportunities, they need to improve their finishing if they want to challenge Porto's defense. The big question is whether Messi's brilliance and the team's offensive efforts can finally convert chances into goals.

Overall, Mascherano's team has impressive statistics, even as the underdogs. On average, they take 11.3 shots and have 5.6 shots on target per game. They demonstrate the ability to control possession and generate scoring chances. This success can largely be attributed to Messi, who leads the team with 67 progressive carries and 130 progressive passes this season.

Porto Analysis and Form

Porto enters this match as the clear favorite, a position in which they have excelled throughout their recent campaign. In the 2024/25 Primeira Liga season, the Dragons achieved consistent results, winning 65% of their games.

Their capacity to handle the pressure of expectations has been a hallmark of their performances both domestically and in Europe, setting the stage as they face the MLS side.

The Portuguese giants combine clinical attacking play with strong defensive resilience. They average just under two goals per match (1.9) while conceding fewer than one goal (0.88), showcasing a team that knows how to control both ends of the pitch.

Porto’s conversion rate hovers around 14%, supported by solid underlying statistics, with an average of 1.69 expected goals per game. They take approximately 13.74 shots per game, which means they score roughly once in almost 14 attempts.

Head to Head Analysis

This will be the first-ever competitive meeting between Inter Miami and Porto. Previously, Porto has only faced U.S.-based teams in friendly matches. For instance, during pre-season, they played against North American clubs for warm-up games, but there is no official competitive record of them facing MLS opponents.

Both clubs are entering uncharted competitive territory, which adds an element of intrigue. Porto brings a wealth of European experience; however, it has yet to officially compete against teams outside of UEFA or South America.

Inter Miami will rely on its limited international match experience, primarily consisting of friendlies, to navigate Porto’s tactical consistency. This match presents a proper intercontinental debut, with few precedents to guide them and a fresh narrative unfolding on the pitch.

According to our internal prediction model, BETSiE, Inter Miami has approximately a 20.7% chance of winning, compared to Porto’s 58.6% chance. In terms of goals, the expected total is 2.85, with an estimated 1.01 goals for Inter Miami.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Inter Miami Possible Starting Lineup:
Ustari; Fray, Aviles, Falcon Piccart, Allen; Busquets, Redondo, Solari, Allende; Segovia, Messi; Suarez.

Porto Possible Starting Lineup:
Claudio-Ramos; Fernandes, Pedro, Marcano; Joao Mario, Varela, Veiga, Moura; Vieira, Mora; Samu.

The lineups we witnessed in the first round of this competition are unlikely to change much, even after both matches ended in goalless draws. While some individuals performed well, we are still looking for quality team play to set the teams apart.

In Inter Miami's match against Al Ahly, Óscar Ustari emerged as a vital player. He was praised as the match MVP with a Sofascore rating of 9.6, recording seven saves, including a crucial penalty stop, and completing 87% of his passes despite facing sustained pressure.

That level of composure will be crucial against Porto, who are likely to put Miami's defense under frequent pressure.

Further up the pitch, Lionel Messi often dropped back into midfield to influence play. He registered five shots, one of which hit the woodwork and created multiple opportunities, although he struggled to convert from central positions.

On the opposite side, Samu Aghehowa, who scored 25 goals across all competitions, remains Porto's primary attacking outlet. Claudio Ramos, the goalkeeper, also played a significant role in securing a point for his team by making four saves in their clash against Palmeiras.

While it's expected that Inter Miami will rely heavily on their goalkeeper and Messi in attack, Porto poses threats across the field. Everyone on Miami will need to be at their best to counter the challenges presented by the Portuguese side.

BEST BET: Rodrigo Mora to Score or Assist (-120)

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Joseph Beguiristain

Joseph Beguiristain is a South Florida native with 10-plus years of sports media experience. Before joining VegasInsider in July 2021, he wrote for the Sun-Sentinel and Miami Heat. More from Joseph Beguiristain