Inter Milan vs River Plate Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Joseph Beguiristain Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Inter Milan will face River Plate on Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET in Club World Cup Matchday 3 action from Lumen Field in Seattle, WA.

After narrowly avoiding an upset against Urawa Red Diamonds, Inter Milan cannot afford to be complacent on Matchday 3.

While a draw could allow both teams to progress to the Round of 16 at Monterrey's expense, a scenario in which the Mexicans defeat the Japanese by a two-goal margin would eliminate the Italians if they fail to win by the same margin.

Expect a fierce and intense battle, which is typical when Argentina faces Italy. River Plate enters as the underdogs but may have a physical edge over Cristian Chivu's side, who still appear to be recovering from their Champions League final defeat.

Bookmakers view this as a closely contested match, with Inter Milan favored in the 1X2 market, but the odds suggest only a 52% likelihood (-108 on the moneyline) of them securing all three points.

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Analysis of the Match

Neither Inter Milan nor River Plate has yet qualified for the knockout stage of the tournament. While a draw would be sufficient for the Argentinians, Inter cannot afford to relax, as Monterrey is closely pursuing them.

Inter's last-minute victory against Urawa Red Diamonds may indicate that they have exhausted their luck earlier than anticipated. However, it might be the spark they needed to begin making progress in the tournament.

The Italians have not been particularly impressive so far. Still, with Lautaro Martinez in excellent form, having scored two goals in as many matches, they remain a significant threat to win games, even if their overall performances have not lived up to expectations.

River Plate left the field after their match against Monterrey feeling frustrated for not securing the three points, having dominated the game. River fans are accustomed to such disappointments this season, as their team has struggled to break down opponents when key players are unavailable. Unfortunately, several important players are missing for this match due to injuries or suspensions.

With Enzo Perez, Kevin Castano, and Giuliano Galoppo all suspended, that represents Marcelo Gallardo's entire preferred midfield. Without these key players, the substitutes lack quality. To make matters worse, their leading striker is also injured, leaving River Plate with a significant challenge ahead against Inter, who have been presented with an excellent opportunity to secure the top spot.

Inter Milan Analysis and Form

Inter Milan continues to depend on Lautaro Martinez in the Club World Cup. While he can't carry the team by himself throughout the tournament, the Argentine striker consistently demonstrates why he is considered one of the best in the world.

His finish against Urawa to equalize was impressive, and his movement against Monterrey was clever enough to help get his team back into the match. River Plate should take note of him.

However, as a team, Inter has yet to hit its full stride. They performed well to secure a victory over Urawa, but they cannot afford to fall behind against River Plate, who are a step above the Japanese side.

Inter boasts a talented squad that reached the Champions League final. While some players may be feeling fatigued, their recent match showed that there is still plenty of energy left to advance in this competition, especially against a heavily rotated River outfit.

River Plate Analysis and Form

River Plate might feel they should already be in the round of 16. However, Monterrey defended resiliently and limited River's chances in front of goal. With Sebastián Driussi out due to injury, Marcelo Gallardo could only rely on Miguel Borja, who failed to make an impact after coming off the bench in the second round.

The midfield is a significant concern for River Plate fans. The options available to replace their suspended players are mostly over 30 years old and have had limited playing time in 2025 due to injuries or simply not being good enough. This situation is proving to be a headache for Gallardo to resolve.

On the bright side, 17-year-old wunderkind Franco Mastantuono has the potential to create moments of magic. However, he has not played to his usual standard in this tournament so far. This could be his opportunity to step up and lead his team to the next round, where the midfield players will return from suspension.

Head-to-Head Analysis 

Inter Milan has a rich history against Argentine teams, having played five matches against Independiente in the Intercontinental Cups of 1964 and 1965, both of which the Nerazzurri won.

In the 1964 final, Inter lost the first leg 1-0 in Argentina but won the second leg 2-0 in Milan. This result led to a play-off held in Madrid, where Inter emerged victorious with a 1-0 win after extra time.

River Plate has faced only one Italian team in its history, losing to Juventus 1-0 in the 1996 Intercontinental Cup, with the only goal scored by Alessandro Del Piero.

A total of thirty-seven Argentine players have worn the Inter Milan shirt, with the most notable being Javier Zanetti. He holds the record for the most appearances in the club's history, having played 858 matches, and was part of the squad that won the 2010 Club World Cup, where he scored in the semi-final.

Ramón Díaz, a former River Plate player and manager, also played for Inter, winning the Scudetto in the 1988/89 season. Currently, River Plate player Facundo Colidio was part of Inter's youth setup from 2017 to 2019, but never made it to the senior team.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

River Plate's Possible Starting Lineup:

• Armani; Acuña, Quarta, Pezzella, Montiel; Kranevitter, Fernández, Martínez; Mastantuono, Colidio, Borja.

Inter Milan's Possible Starting Lineup:

• Sommer; Darmian, Bastoni, Acerbi; Dumfries, Zalewski, Asllani, Barella, Dimarco; Esposito, Martínez.

River Plate faces a significant setback as not only will Sebastián Driussi be unavailable, but Enzo Pérez, Kevin Castano, and Giuliano Galoppo will also miss the match. Instead, Nacho Fernández (35), Matías Kranevitter (32), and Pity Martínez (32) are expected to start, although none are fully match fit. Miguel Borja will likely lead the attack as the only recognized striker.

Christian Chivu is planning to make several changes from the squad that defeated Urawa 2-1 on Saturday. Denzel Dumfries has returned to full fitness and will start on the right flank.

Acerbi and Bastoni are expected to rejoin the starting defense, while Pavard remains unavailable due to a lingering ankle issue. Pio Esposito may make his first-team debut as a starter in attack alongside captain Lautaro Martínez. Last match's hero, Valentin Carboni, is likely to begin the game on the bench.

Thuram and Frattesi have been increasing their training intensity, but they are not yet ready to join the squad.

Odds Discussion

Once considered one of the top favorites to progress far in the competition, Inter has seen a significant drop in its standing. The Nerazzurri have not lived up to expectations, as reflected in the current match odds.

Initially, Inter opened this game at -167, but they have since drifted to -105, indicating growing concerns about their form and the complicated situation within their group. Similarly, the odds for a draw have also shortened considerably, now suggesting an implied probability of 32.3% (+210).

The adjustment in draw odds is primarily due to the fact that both teams could advance with just a single point from this match. However, this outcome hinges on the Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Monterrey clash—something the Italians would rather not leave to chance.

Despite the change in odds, Inter remains the stronger team and should be able to secure their position in the group. Nevertheless, their tendency to concede against weaker opponents has raised some questions regarding their defensive capabilities.

Current odds indicate a 61.3% probability (-158 on the moneyline) that both teams will score, a figure supported by statistical evidence and previous match results. Notably, the goal line is set at 2.5, with bookmakers slightly favoring the "under" option.

BETSiE's projection of 2.65 total match goals corresponds with this cautious perspective, indicating that a tactical battle, where fine margins decide the outcome, is likely.

BEST BET: Lautaro Martinez Goalscorer (+130)

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Joseph Beguiristain

Joseph Beguiristain is a South Florida native with 10-plus years of sports media experience. Before joining VegasInsider in July 2021, he wrote for the Sun-Sentinel and Miami Heat. More from Joseph Beguiristain