Los Angeles FC vs Espérance de Tunis Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Joseph Beguiristain Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

LAFC will face Espérance de Tunis on Friday night at 6:00 PM EDT in Club World Cup Match Day 2 action from GEODIS Park in Nashville, TN.

The race for the second spot in Group D of the Club World Cup is heating up. Results from Matchday 1 have made things more challenging for both LAFC and ES Tunis.

Both teams suffered 2-0 defeats—LAFC against Chelsea and ES Tunis against Flamengo. As a result, another loss in this match will eliminate any hopes they have of advancing to the knockout stage.

Bookmakers are anticipating that playing at home will give LAFC an advantage, making them the favorites for this match. This is a new position for the team. According to the odds for the LAFC vs. ES Tunis match, there is a 55% implied probability (-122 on the moneyline) that LAFC will win.

However, a victory for the North African side is not out of the question. There have been bigger mismatches in this competition before. Most bookmakers are giving ES Tunis about a 20% chance of winning (or +400 on the moneyline). A win would set them up for a crucial Matchday 3 showdown against Chelsea, potentially with three points on the board.

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Analysis of the Match

This match presents an intriguing scenario for LAFC, who enter the game as the favorites. Meanwhile, Espérance de Tunis recognizes this as their best chance to remain in the competition. In the first round, the Tunisians struggled significantly, being outperformed in various key metrics, including expected goals (xG), shots on goal, and possession.

In their initial match against Flamengo, Espérance managed only two shots on goal, resulting in a mere 0.24 xG. Four of their six shots came from outside the box, contributing to their low xG. They currently rank third in attempts from outside the box after the first round, trailing only Dortmund and Auckland, both of which registered 100% of their shots from that range.

If Espérance hopes to keep their chances alive, they will need to improve their performance on both offense and defense. They currently rank third in fouls committed and have received an equal number of yellow cards. Their lack of experience against stronger opponents is evident, leading to a more aggressive approach in attempting to stop opposing players.

Los Angeles FC Analysis and Form

Los Angeles faced a tough match against Chelsea, where they were clearly outmatched. However, statistics show some promising signs. Although Enzo Maresca's team was leading in several key areas, the outcome wasn't entirely one-sided.

Chelsea scored two goals from an expected goals (xG) value of 2.24, taking a total of 17 shots, with six on target. In contrast, the Black and Gold Falcons managed seven shots, with four on target, resulting in an xG of 0.85. Both goalkeepers, Robert Sanchez and LA's Hugo Lloris, each made four saves during the match.

One significant issue for LA is their transition from the midfield to the attacking third. They currently rank fifth in time spent in the final third, trailing behind teams like Auckland, Monterrey, Botafogo, and Al Ahly.

Despite the disappointing loss, LA still has opportunities to bounce back. Their upcoming match against Tunis is critical, as securing points is essential for remaining competitive in the league.

Hugo Lloris will likely continue to be their most vital player, but there are high expectations for Denis Bouanga as well. During the last match, he had three attempts that generated an xG of 0.69, indicating that a goal might soon be on the horizon for him.

Espérance de Tunis Analysis and Form

The Elder of Tunisian Clubs arrived in Philadelphia riding a strong wave of form with an impressive unbeaten streak of 11 games. However, they were caught off guard by the higher level of competition and saw their run come to an end with a 2-0 loss to Flamengo.

Despite winning two titles this season, facing some of the world's strongest teams proved to be a different challenge altogether. The Brazilian team, Flamengo, dominated possession with 69%, allowing Tunis only two shots on target and recording a minimal expected goals (xG) value of 0.24.

With only two shots on goal, Tunis found themselves ranking just above Auckland City and surprisingly alongside Atletico Madrid, who managed only one shot on target against PSG. They also shared the top spot with Porto for the most fouls per game, averaging 19.

These trends and statistics are common in mismatched games, with fouls being a frequent occurrence for underdog teams. In their next match, Tunis will again enter as the underdogs, though not as heavily as in their debut.

The standout player offensively was Youcef Belaïli, whose four shots accounted for the majority of the team's total xG of 0.24. He is likely to remain their primary offensive threat, and if Tunis is able to reach the opponent's goal, Youcef is expected to take the shot.

Head to Head Analysis

This will be the first-ever meeting between Los Angeles FC and Espérance de Tunis. While Tunis has some experience, albeit not a positive one, playing in the Club World Cup, LA is making its debut in this newly expanded format of the competition.

For LA, this will be their first match against an African team. Their previous international experience includes just one match against a non-American squad, which they lost. Although they have performed well domestically, winning several trophies since 2018, they have yet to establish themselves on the international stage.

On the other hand, Espérance are veterans of the Club World Cup, having appeared at this level multiple times. However, in their eight matches, they have only secured two wins, with no draws.

The Tunisian giants have often struggled to translate their domestic dominance into success on the global stage, typically being outclassed by teams from Europe, South America, or even Asia. It remains to be seen how they will perform against teams from the United States.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Los Angeles FC Possible Starting Lineup:

• Lloris; Palencia, Long, Segura, Hollingshead; Jesus, Tillman, Delgado; Martinez, Ordaz, Bouanga.

Espérance de Tunis Possible Starting Lineup:

• Ben Said; Ben Ali, Meriah, Tougai, Ben Hamida; Guenichi, Ogbelu; Yan Sasse, Jebali, Belaili; Rodrigo Rodrigues.

Both teams opened the tournament with defeats but are likely to stick with their lineups for the next match. Bookings may become a concern for Tunis in the long run, as they received four yellow cards in their first game.

LA FC will continue to rely on Hugo Lloris, whose four saves helped keep the score respectable against Chelsea. Alongside Eddie Segura, who stood out in defense, we can expect a solid backline from The Black and Gold.

Offensively, Denis Bouanga will remain LA's key attacking player after a strong expected goals (xG) performance in the first match. Although both luck and Chelsea's quality prevented him from scoring, he will undoubtedly keep pushing for a goal.

On the other hand, Tunis is expected to maintain a similar lineup to their opener. Youcef Belaili was their most dangerous player, contributing significantly to the team's xG with four shots, and he will continue to be their main offensive threat.

BEST BET: Los Angeles FC to Win (-125)

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Joseph Beguiristain

Joseph Beguiristain is a South Florida native with 10-plus years of sports media experience. Before joining VegasInsider in July 2021, he wrote for the Sun-Sentinel and Miami Heat. More from Joseph Beguiristain