Palmeiras vs. Chelsea Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

You don’t have to go back far to find bad blood here. Palmeiras haven’t forgotten 2021, when Chelsea snatched the Club World Cup title from them in extra time. The scars from that 2-1 loss still sting the Verdão. 

Fast forward to 2025, and the Brazilians are back for a shot at revenge, battle-tested and fearless after surviving Botafogo in extra time. 

Chelsea has had its struggles, but the depth and quality of its bench made it slightly easier to compete against already tired teams.

The Blues are well-deserved favorites here, with the odds sitting just above even and an implied probability of around 48.8%. The Premier League side was priced just about the same against Benfica. 

Does that imply a similar outcome, or will the Verdão find a way past this obstacle?

Looking to get in on the action? Be sure to check out our bet365 bonus code!

(Featured Image Credit:  Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo)

Updated on 7/4/25

bet365

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!

Bonus Code

VIBONUS

Claim $150

New customers only, 21+ (18+ in KY). Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in AZ, CO, NJ, IA, IL, KY, IN, LA, NC, VA, PA, TN, OH only. Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets at bet365. Registration required. A deposit (minimum $10) is required to participate in this offer. You must claim the offer via the bet365 app, within 30 days of registering your account. Once released, your Bonus Bets will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable.T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.

Analysis of the Match

Palmeiras and Chelsea are set to lock horns on Saturday, each having successfully navigated demanding Round of 16 encounters. 

Verdão edged out Brazilian rivals Botafogo with a crucial 100th-minute goal from substitute Paulinho, underscoring coach Abel Ferreira's skillful squad rotation. 

Despite his heroics, Paulinho is expected to start on the bench due to a leg injury that requires surgery after the tournament. 

Palmeiras will also be without suspended defenders Uruguayan Joaquin Piquerez and Gustavo Gomez, though Estevao, soon to join Chelsea, is available.

Palmeiras have leaned on their robust defense throughout the competition, conceding just two shots on target in their extra-time win over Botafogo, and have effectively controlled the tempo of matches. 

Meanwhile, Chelsea overcame Benfica 4-1 in a grueling battle that extended into extra time, with goals from Christopher Nkunku, Pedro Neto, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall securing the victory. 

Reece James also scored during regular time. The Blues will welcome back striker Nicolas Jackson from suspension, though Moises Caicedo will miss out due to the same reason.

Both teams have displayed resilience and quality, setting the stage for a closely contested quarter-final. 

Palmeiras holds a slight edge, having already played the Round of 16 match in Philadelphia and benefiting from strong fan support. 

Chelsea, who defeated the Brazilians in the 2021 Intercontinental Cup final, face pressure as they are considered the second favorites for the title, behind PSG, with a 25.47% chance of victory, according to our in-house projections model.

Palmeiras Analysis and Form

Known for a defense-first approach under manager Abel Ferreira, Palmeiras focuses on stifling opponents before establishing their rhythm. 

This strategy can frustrate supporters but has proven effective. Despite an encouraging start to the tournament with a draw against Porto, the result lost some shine after Porto's subsequent performances, which included a loss to Inter Miami and a wild 4-4 draw with Al Ahly. 

Nevertheless, Palmeiras' preference for disciplined defense and quick counter-attacks remains central to their success, both in the Club World Cup and Brazilian Serie A.

Verdaõ have been prolific in taking shots during the tournament, leading with 69, yet they've only managed to find the net five times. 

Their accuracy has been a concern, with just 26% of their attempts hitting the target, a figure only four other teams fall below. 

In seven of their last ten competitive matches, only one team has found the back of the net, with those games averaging just 2.3 goals.

Palmeiras might be depleted in defense and fatigued, but it’s unlikely they’ll change their style of play in a game of this magnitude.

Chelsea Analysis and Form

Chelsea have comfortably won all their games except a defeat to Flamengo and a late penalty that forced extra time against Benfica in the Round of 16. 

Even then, the Blues prevailed decisively in the added period. 

They have consistently displayed a preference for possession, dictating the game's tempo during the competition. And they seem in fine form in front of the goal, too. 

Chelsea have scored in 15 of their last 16 matches, the sole exception being a 2-0 loss at Newcastle. Impressively, they have opened the scoring in 11 of these games, including all four of their Club World Cup fixtures.

Pedro Neto has been a standout performer, leading Chelsea's scoring chart in the tournament with three goals from seven attempts and boasting an impressive average match rating of 8.27—the second-highest in the competition. 

Despite not always converting their chances early, as seen in the match against Benfica, Enzo Maresca's men have shown resilience and control, restricting their opponents and maintaining dominance throughout matches. 

However, with Moises Caicedo absent for the next game, the Conference League winners might face a more formidable challenge in Philadelphia. 

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Palmeiras possible starting lineup:

Weverton; Giay, Micael, Fuchs; Maykes; Rios, Martinez, Vanderlan; Allan, Estêvão, Vitor Roque

Chelsea possible starting lineup:

Sanchez; James, Colwill, Badiashile, Cucurella; Lavia, Fernandez, Palmer; Neto, Madueke, Delap

Piquerez is suspended, so Vanderlan could be deployed as the left wing-back in this formation. 

Estêvão and Vitor Roque are the main attacking outlets for Palmeiras. The latter is looking to regain his best form after an unsuccessful stint in Europe. Estêvão, on the other hand, is gearing up to make a move to Chelsea, so this could be his last game for the club.

Palmeiras also have goals on the bench. Four of their five goals at the Club World Cup have been scored by substitutes. Paulinho scored the decisive goal against Botafogo. He is one to keep an eye on here. 

Chelsea needed extra time to beat Benfica in the last round. The two-hour weather delay seemingly had an impact, but they have the depth to contend with the rigours of the Club World Cup.

Caicedo will miss the quarter-final against Palmeiras after picking up a second booking of the tournament against Benfica. Enzo Maresca could opt to play Fernandez deeper and use Palmer behind the striker to fill that gap. 

Liam Delap has now played four matches for Chelsea, starting three and scoring one. It’s safe to say the former Ipswich striker didn’t have the best of games in the round of 16, but he is still likely to lead the Chelsea attack here. 

James and Cucurella performed well against Benfica, so they should be the starting full-backs who are tasked with taming Palmeiras’ pacey wide players.

Odds Discussion & Best Bet

At a shade of odds-against, just above Evens, Chelsea commands a 2.05/+105 favorites price as they waltz into their quarter-final match-up. Palmeiras of Brazil will line up in the other corner of the ring, ready and waiting to nullify whatever the Premier League giants pull out of their arsenal. 

The victory over Botafogo, which headed into Extra Time and saw four yellow cards, a sending-off, and a cultured Palmeiras finish into the bottom corner, ensured the Sao Paulo-based club kept marching on.

Verdão claims a +0.5 Asian Handicap to overcome. If they manage to hold Chelsea to a draw or better come the end of 90 minutes, this selection will return punters their full profits. 

Considering they're yet to lose a game of football in the United States, it's a handicap that plenty will find palatable. However, Porto (0-0), Al Ahly (2-0), Inter Miami (2-2), and Botafogo (1-0) don't quite stack up to the embarrassment of riches littered throughout Chelsea's squad. 

The Blues also toiled their way through an additional 30 minutes against Benfica. The 4-1 scoreline tells the story of a game that got away from the Portuguese after a 95th-minute Angel Di Maria penalty kept them involved in a potential quarter-final showdown. 

Malo Gusto, Trevor Chalobah, and Christopher Nkunku all came on in the closing ten minutes of the game against Benfica, a nod towards the depth in their squad and why the minus Asian Handicap line exists. That's five consecutive Club World Cup fixtures where Chelsea will kick off as favorites.

The 2.10/+110 price against Benfica last time out and the 2.15/+115 odds in Chelsea's defeat to Flamengo (1-3) both share similarities in terms of pricing ahead of the quarter-final. 

Elsewhere, 'Under 2.5 Goals' is the market favorite, preferred to the 'Overs.' Both Teams To Score - No has won in seven of Palmeiras' last ten competitive matches, witnessing an average of just 2.3 goals. This selection has also won in six of Chelsea's last ten outings across all competitions.

BEST BET: Highest Scoring Half: Second Half (+110)

Check out the latest Club World Cup betting promos and Club World Cup odds to get in on all of the soccer action!