RB Salzburg vs Real Madrid Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Joseph Beguiristain Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

RB Salzburg will face Real Madrid on Thursday at 9:00 PM ET in Club World Cup Matchday 3 action from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA.

While Pachuca's journey concludes here, the three remaining teams are competing for a spot in the playoffs. RB Salzburg has demonstrated resilience, but their performance in the final third remains unconvincing.

Real Madrid is currently favored at odds of -333 and is projected to score an average of 2.79 goals. This places significant pressure on the Austrian champions.

The implied probability of Thomas Letsch's team securing a win is only 11.4% (+777 on the moneyline), meaning their advancement to the Round of 16 will depend on the outcomes of other matches.

For Real Madrid, anything short of finishing in the top spot would be considered an underachievement. Given their 5-1 victory against RB Leipzig earlier in this season's Champions League, it isn't easy to envision a significantly different outcome this time around.

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Analysis of the Match

Real Madrid were expected to dominate Group H, but they now find themselves tied for the top position with RB Salzburg. With Al-Hilal likely to defeat CF Pachuca, this match in Philadelphia is crucial for both European teams.

Salzburg earned their three points with an opening victory against Pachuca, and like Madrid, they were held to a draw by Al-Hilal.

Traditionally viewed as underdogs, Salzburg's debut in this competition follows a challenging Champions League campaign, during which they suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat to Madrid and ended with the worst goal difference (-22) in the league phase.

Despite their youth, Salzburg remains in contention for qualification. However, given Real Madrid's impressive performance against Pachuca—where they secured a victory despite being reduced to ten men for over 80 minutes—Xabi Alonso's squad is expected to win comfortably.

A significant issue for Real Madrid has been defensive instability, as they have registered just two clean sheets in their last eight games. Additionally, they have received nine red cards this season, indicating a concerning lack of discipline at times.

Nevertheless, Salzburg's struggles in front of goal—having failed to score in five of eight Champions League matches this season—combined with Antonio Rudiger's return to Madrid's defense, should help the 15-time European champions secure the top spot.

RB Salzburg Analysis and Form

Red Bull Salzburg has had difficulty controlling both matches against Al Hilal and Pachuca, yet they are on the verge of securing a spot in the last 16 of the competition.

The Austrian team has shown resilience, losing only three of their last 18 matches across all competitions. Prior to their goalless draw with Al Hilal on Matchday 2, they had scored in 16 consecutive competitive fixtures. This scoring streak began after a scoreless match against Austria Klagenfurt in the Austrian Bundesliga on February 9.

Significantly, Salzburg has not gone two consecutive games without scoring since October 2024.

However, despite these encouraging statistics, Salzburg has not performed at its best recently. Last season was disappointing, with struggles in both the UEFA Champions League and their domestic Bundesliga.

In this Club World Cup, the Austrians have yet to demonstrate their full potential on American soil despite their opening victory over Pachuca.

Real Madrid Analysis and Form

Despite an unexpected early red card for Raúl Asencio in the seventh minute, Xabi Alonso's team adapted brilliantly. Goals from Jude Bellingham, Arda Güler, and Fede Valverde secured a victory over CF Pachuca.

Alonso demonstrated his tactical flexibility by adjusting formations throughout the match. After the red card, he shifted from an initial 4-3-3 setup to a 4-4-1 formation, showcasing his ability to rethink strategies. By the end of the game, he had opted for three central defenders and two wing-backs, reflecting his proactive coaching style.

While the victory was noteworthy, Real Madrid allowed numerous scoring opportunities for Pachuca, which required goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois to make several crucial saves.

Moving forward, Alonso will likely focus on solidifying the team's defense to ensure they remain disciplined as they aim to secure the Club World Cup, their first trophy of the season.

Head-to-Head Analysis 

It's an all-European showdown to conclude the group stage of the Club World Cup. Notably, this is a match we've seen earlier this season.

In January, Salzburg faced Real Madrid during the league phase of the Champions League, where Real Madrid dominated with a score of 5-1. Kylian Mbappe scored one goal, while Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo each netted two. Mads Bidstrup added a late consolation goal for Salzburg.

This was the first competitive match between these two clubs; their only previous encounter was a friendly in August 2019, which Madrid won 1-0.

Since that dominant 5-1 victory in January, Madrid has experienced some challenges during the early stages of Xabi Alonso's tenure. The team has been conceding numerous chances and struggling with their defense. This might be an opportune moment for Salzburg to secure their first positive result against the 15-time Champions League winners.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

RB Salzburg Possible Starting Lineup:
Zawieschitzky; Lainer, Gadou, Rasmussen, Krätzig; Dorgeles, Bidstrup, Diabate, Gloukh; Baidoo, Onisiwo.

Real Madrid Possible Starting Lineup:
Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, F. Garcia; Güler, Tchouameni, Bellingham; Valverde, Mbappé, Vinicius Jr.

There are no new injury concerns for Salzburg ahead of this match. The main question is where Jacob Rasmussen will play. He started in midfield against Pachuca but moved back to center defense for the game against Al-Ain.

The key storyline leading up to this match is whether Kylian Mbappé will return for Real Madrid. The French captain missed the first two group matches due to illness, but he could return to the starting lineup for this game. Gonzalo García has been leading the line for Los Blancos but would likely make way for Mbappé if he is fit to start.

In addition, for coach Xabi Alonso, defender Raul Asencio is unavailable after receiving a red card in the 3-1 win over Pachuca, which means Antonio Rudiger is expected to step in.

Odds Discussion

Ten-man Real Madrid managed to secure a 3-1 victory against Pachuca on Matchday 2, even after Raul Asencio received a red card in the 9th minute. This victory was crucial for their standings in the group, as they head into the final fixture against RB Salzburg tied on four points with their third-match opponents. As expected, Xabi Alonso's Galacticos have taken on the role of favorites.

RB Salzburg will be pleased with their four points from two matches in a challenging group, although their performances have been less than convincing. They lost the expected goals (xG) battle in both games, recording only 0.29 xG against Pachuca and 1.06 xG against Al Hilal. This raises concerns about how effectively they can challenge stronger opponents in their final group stage encounter.

As they face their toughest challenge yet, RB Salzburg must determine if they have the quality to keep Real Madrid at bay while also troubling their defense. A loss for Salzburg, coupled with an Al Hilal victory against Pachuca, would eliminate them from the competition despite their reasonable points tally.

Though both European teams are tied on points in Group H, Real Madrid is currently the strong favorite to win the group. BETSiE projects the goal total to favor Real Madrid significantly, with RB Salzburg expected to score 0.78 xG compared to Real Madrid's 2.89 xG.

The bookmakers have given RB Salzburg a +1.75 Asian Handicap. While this is a sizable handicap to face in any football match, Real Madrid, at their best, can erase such a margin quickly.

Fortunately for Thomas Letsch's team, this isn't the peak Madrid side. Alonso's innovative approach will require time to develop before Real Madrid reaches its full potential. Given this context, punters might consider betting on the underdogs, particularly with a significant handicap in play.

BEST BET: Under 3.5 Goals (-138)

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Joseph Beguiristain

Joseph Beguiristain is a South Florida native with 10-plus years of sports media experience. Before joining VegasInsider in July 2021, he wrote for the Sun-Sentinel and Miami Heat. More from Joseph Beguiristain