Real Madrid vs Al Hilal Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Joseph Beguiristain Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Real Madrid will face Al Hilal on Wednesday at 3:00 PM EDT in Club World Cup Match Day 1 action from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.

The tournament favorites are set to make their debut in Miami against a club that has recently appointed Champions League finalist Simone Inzaghi as their manager, making him the highest-paid coach in the world.

There will also be significant interest in Xabi Alonso, who will take charge of Real Madrid for the first time since his move from Bayer Leverkusen.

The club is undergoing a squad rebuilding phase and will feature new right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold, fresh from his Premier League success with Liverpool.

In contrast, Inzaghi will be tasked with guiding the Saudi Arabian club to the next round. This comes after a season in which they finished as league runners-up and were eliminated in the AFC Champions League quarterfinals.

Bookmakers heavily favor Real Madrid, with an implied 81% probability of victory (-526 on the moneyline) in the 1X2 market for the match between Real Madrid and Hilal against a star-studded yet inexperienced side facing European opposition.

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Updated on 6/19/25

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Analysis of the Match

Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium serves as an ideal venue for Real Madrid’s Club World Cup debut under new manager Xabi Alonso. After a trophyless season, the tournament’s most successful club enters as a favorite with a point to prove.

Although Alonso faces pressure to deliver immediate results, he has limited time to change the team’s approach. Therefore, Madrid is likely to rely on its familiar, star-studded formula. Fans can expect a patient, possession-based strategy, looking for moments of individual brilliance to penetrate Al Hilal’s disciplined defense.

Real Madrid is expected to dominate possession and meticulously work through midfield, while Al Hilal will aim to challenge them with quick counterattacks. Key matchups include the speed and creativity of Kylian Mbappé against Al Hilal’s compact defense, which has been further strengthened under manager Simone Inzaghi.

Despite having one of the most expensive squads outside of Europe, Al Hilal’s continental campaign has been disappointing, with a 3-1 semi-final defeat to Al Ahly extending their drought without an AFC Champions League title since 2021.

Now guided by Inzaghi, a recent Champions League finalist, the Saudi giants are entering a new era under a tactically astute, European-minded coach. While many view them as underdogs against Real Madrid, their combination of elite talent and Inzaghi’s strategic approach could offer more resistance than anticipated.

This match also serves as a testing ground for both coaches. For Alonso, it presents an opportunity to evaluate squad dynamics and start integrating younger talent, as a long-term rebuild is already underway in Madrid. For Al Hilal, it’s a chance to prove that their project can compete with Europe’s elite, not just outspend them.

Real Madrid Analysis and Form

Real Madrid concluded the 2024–25 La Liga season with a strong record of 26 wins, six draws, and six losses, earning a total of 84 points (2.21 points per game) to finish in second place. They recorded a total expected goals (xG) of 75.3 and an expected goals against (xGA) of 42.8 across all competitions, resulting in an expected goal difference (xGD) of +32.5, compared to their actual goal difference of +40.

Possession of the ball remains central to their strategy, as they controlled approximately 60% of possession per match, consistently dictating the tempo through midfield. In the Champions League, Real Madrid averaged 2.08 goals per match while maintaining a possession rate of 51.4% and an impressive pass accuracy of 90%. This highlights their clinical efficiency at the highest level of competition.

Although their season concluded without winning a major trophy, the underlying statistics suggest that the team is well-equipped to compete with Europe’s elite under coach Alonso’s guidance.

Jude Bellingham, who previously scored at a rate of 0.74 goals per 90 minutes, has seen his scoring drop to just 0.35 goals per 90. However, he has shifted his focus to playmaking, contributing 0.30 assists per 90 minutes. Meanwhile, Rodrygo, who was once a reliable contributor, has scored only one goal since February and appears to be out of form as he approaches the Club World Cup, especially after missing the last five matches.

Vinícius Junior has raised concerns regarding disciplinary issues, having received significant cautions for outbursts and bookings that have disrupted team dynamics. This is an aspect worth considering.

Kylian Mbappé has met expectations by scoring 43 goals, but his contributions off the ball and in defense have come under scrutiny. In summary, while Real Madrid possesses elite statistics and attacking capabilities, Alonso must address form dips, disciplinary challenges, and a thinner squad as he aims to lead them back to winning silverware.

Al Hilal Analysis and Form

Al Hilal finished the 2024–25 Saudi Pro League in 2nd place, ending the season with a record of 23 wins, six draws, and five losses (75 points), falling short behind champions Al Ittihad. The club showcased an impressive offensive performance, scoring a total of 95 goals, averaging 2.79 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per match. However, defensive lapses ultimately prevented them from clinching the title.

Statistically, Al Hilal generated a strong expected goals (xG) average of 2.13 per game while holding opponents to just 1.07 expected goals against (xGA). The team averaged nearly 17 shots per match, displaying a high shot-on-target frequency and achieving clean sheets in approximately one-third of their games.

In their final five league matches, Al Hilal recorded a promising 4-1-0 record, averaging about 2.6 points per game. This strong late-season performance highlighted their attacking sharpness and defensive solidity, particularly at home, where they maintained a scoring streak and proved difficult to break down.

In the AFC Champions League, Al Hilal exited in the quarterfinals after a closely contested match. Following this, coach Jorge Jesus departed, but the arrival of Inzaghi is expected to bring new momentum to the team.

Head to Head Analysis

Real Madrid and Al-Hilal have faced each other once before, notably in the Club World Cup finals, which had a greater significance than their current matchup. That encounter produced a total of eight goals, with both teams scoring and Real Madrid achieving a 5-3 victory.

In addition to that fixture, Real Madrid has had few encounters with Saudi teams, yet their historical record remains perfect, as they have won both matches. In their latest clash against Al-Hilal, Los Blancos dominated much of the game, although the Blue Waves were able to counterattack effectively.

According to the statistics, Real Madrid maintained 66% possession throughout the match, taking a total of 17 shots, with 11 of them on target. In contrast, Al-Hilal managed only nine shots, of which three were on target. Notably, while Real earned seven corner kicks, Al-Hilal had none.

When examining seasonal trends, Al-Hilal's matches have featured over 2.5 goals in 65% of cases, with approximately 22 matches seeing both teams score at least 2.5 goals. On the other hand, Real Madrid averages 1.93 expected goals (xG) and concedes 1.24 expected goals against (xGA) per game, with over 2.5 goals scored in about 58% of their matches and both teams scoring in roughly 55% of fixtures.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid's possible starting lineup:

Courtois; Asencio, Huijsen, Rüdiger; Alexander-Arnold, Valverde, Bellingham, Fran Garcia; Rodrygo, Mbappé, Vinícius Jr.

Al Hilal's possible starting lineup:

Bouno; Cancelo, Al-Bulaihi, Koulibaly, Lod; Neves, Kanno, Milinkovic-Savic; Malcom, Leonardo, Al-Dawsari.

Disappointing results this season have led to significant changes at Los Blancos. Real Madrid arrives at the Club World Cup with a revamped squad under Xabi Alonso, who is eager to test his options during this transitional phase.

The former Leverkusen manager has recruited notable talent, bringing in Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dean Huijsen. Both players will make their international debuts alongside an already superstar-rich squad.

Alexander-Arnold, a high-profile early signing from Liverpool, is expected to play in midfield or wing-back roles. Meanwhile, Huijsen, who was signed from Bournemouth for £50 million, is anticipated to get plenty of game time in Alonso’s back three. Both players will be vital as Alonso aims to restore balance to a backline that struggled last season.

Veterans Luka Modrić and Lucas Vázquez are available for this tournament before their expected summer departures. Dani Carvajal has sufficiently recovered from his ACL injury to be included, although he may play only a limited role.

On the attacking front, the team is confident and boasts several options with a focus on midfield control. Marcos Leonardo has been a standout performer, scoring over 20 goals during Aleksandar Mitrović’s absence due to injury.

Mitrović is now back in contention, providing another dangerous option who could play alongside or replace Leonardo. Defensively, Kalidou Koulibaly and João Cancelo (if fit following his injury) will be tasked with containing Madrid’s pace. Yassine Bounou remains a reliable presence in goal, while young Kaio César could be introduced if Hilal needs a spark, as he brings energy to the final third.

BEST BET: Real Madrid to Win & Both Teams to Score (+162)

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Joseph Beguiristain

Joseph Beguiristain is a South Florida native with 10-plus years of sports media experience. Before joining VegasInsider in July 2021, he wrote for the Sun-Sentinel and Miami Heat. More from Joseph Beguiristain