Seattle Sounders vs Atlético Madrid Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Joseph Beguiristain Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

The Seattle Sounders will face Atlético Madrid on Thursday at 6:00 PM EDT in Club World Cup Match Day 2 action from Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.

A victory is crucial for Los Colchoneros, as anything less could lead to their elimination following a heavy 4-0 defeat to the European champions on matchday one. While the scoreline may not fully reflect Atlético's efforts, Diego Simeone's team must now showcase their superior experience and skill.

On the other hand, the MLS team displayed resilience but ultimately fell short in their attempt to come back against Botafogo, proving that they can compete with more vigorous opponents.

Playing at Lumen Field offers the Seattle Sounders a significant home advantage. However, Atlético Madrid remains the clear favorite, with bookmakers estimating nearly an 80% chance of success for the Spanish side in the 1X2 market (-370 on the moneyline).

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Analysis of the Match

The hosts face another tough battle as they take on Atlético Madrid in their second match of the Club World Cup.

After a narrow 2-1 loss to reigning Copa Libertadores champions Botafogo, the Sounders find themselves in a must-win situation to keep their hopes of advancing alive.

Despite the defeat, the MLS side displayed moments of brilliance, dominating possession and creating numerous chances, especially in the second half, which culminated in Cristian Roldan's goal in the 75th minute. However, defensive lapses proved costly, with two avoidable goals conceded in the first half, putting them on the back foot.

Playing at Lumen Field provides the Sounders with a significant home advantage, but they face an Atlético Madrid squad eager to rebound from a 4-0 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain. Diego Simeone's men are known for their defensive solidity but uncharacteristically conceded four goals in their opener. Despite their recent struggles, Atlético remains a formidable opponent, having had the third-best defensive record in Europe's top five leagues last season.

Statistically, Seattle's striker Albert Rusnak may be key, generating seven shots despite a modest 0.5 expected goals (xG) against Botafogo. On the other hand, Atlético, known for their resilience, has frequently been involved in matches where both teams score, as evidenced in their last eight encounters.

A win for Seattle could keep their hopes alive, while Atlético needs a positive result to avoid early elimination due to their poor goal difference. Expect an intense clash, with both teams acutely aware of the importance of this fixture in the tournament landscape.

Seattle Sounders Analysis and Form

The Seattle Sounders are currently facing a tough period, having lost their last three matches and managing only two clean sheets in their past ten games.

Despite this, they delivered an encouraging performance against Botafogo, which almost resulted in a significant upset against the Copa Libertadores champions.

While they struggled in the first half, Seattle came to life after the break, dominating much of the second half. They recorded 23 shots, marking only the third time they have surpassed 20 shots in their last 20 matches. However, they could not overcome a two-goal deficit.

The Sounders maintained sustained pressure and created several late opportunities, but the Brazilian team held firm, thanks in part to a critical save by their goalkeeper during added time.

As they prepare for Thursday's match, Seattle's success will heavily rely on the form of their playmaker, Albert Rusnak, whose creativity offered hope in their previous match. Nonetheless, defensive struggles continue, with eight goals conceded over their last three games and concerns about discipline, leaving the team feeling somewhat unsettled ahead of this must-win match.

Atlético Madrid Analysis and Form

Atlético Madrid's heavy defeat to PSG demands a strong response from Diego Simeone's team. The 4-0 loss in Pasadena marked just the fourth time this season that Atlético, known for having one of Europe's top three defenses, conceded four goals or more.

Struggling against the intensity of Luis Enrique's side, Atlético gifted PSG easy goals while failing to capitalize on key chances themselves. Antoine Griezmann, who has not scored in his last 17 matches, and Alexander Sorloth were among those who missed their opportunities. To make matters worse, a potential game-changing goal scored by Julian Alvarez was ruled out by VAR in the second half.

As PSG and Botafogo prepare to clash, Atlético finds itself in a must-win situation to avoid having to rely on goal difference.

Inspired by Argentina's World Cup triumph, where they rebounded after an early setback, Atlético must focus on their upcoming matches to stay in contention and progress in the tournament.

Head to Head Analysis

The Seattle Sounders have faced intercontinental opponents on two occasions, losing both encounters with an aggregate score of 3-1.

Atlético Madrid's only previous matches against non-European teams took place in 1974 against Independiente. In that Intercontinental Cup, Los Colchoneros lost the first leg 1-0 in Argentina but won the second leg 2-0 to secure the title.

Atlético's manager, Diego Simeone, played in five matches in the U.S. during the 1994 World Cup, achieving two wins and two losses.

Simeone also faced the United States national team twice, suffering a 3-0 defeat in the 1995 Copa America and a 1-0 loss in a friendly in 1999.

Among the Seattle Sounders is Argentine number 10 Pedro de la Vega, who is also Simeone's compatriot. De la Vega has made a notable impact in his career, with 103 appearances for Lanús.

Sounders manager Brian Schmetzer has been with the club since 1997 and has yet to manage outside of Major League Soccer (MLS), adding an intriguing dynamic as they prepare to face the Spanish giants.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:

Frei, Tolo, Roldán, Ragen, Kim Ki-hee, Roldan, Vargas, Rusnák, Kent, Ferreira; Musovski.

Atlético Madrid possible starting lineup:

Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Gimenez, Reinildo; Simeone, de Paul, Koke, Gallagher;  Griezmann, Alvarez.

Seattle Sounders manager Brian Schmetzer is expected to stick with the same starting lineup that suffered a 2-1 defeat to Botafogo on matchday one.

Upfront, Rusnak, Kent, and Ferreira will support center-forward Muskovski. Roldan, who recorded two shots on target in the opening game, will anchor the midfield alongside Vargas. Reed Baker-Whiting and Cameroonian Nouhou Tolo are competing for the left-back position, while Pedro de la Vega is likely to come off the bench in the second half.

Atlético Madrid will be without center-back Clément Lenglet, who was sent off against PSG. José María Giménez is expected to replace him in the center-back role, with Reinildo Mandava likely stepping in for Marcos Llorente at right-back. Samuel Lino may start on the bench, as Conor Gallagher could be included in the starting eleven. Griezmann and Álvarez will lead the attack.

BEST BET: Over 8.5 Shots for the Seattle Sounders (-111)

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Joseph Beguiristain

Joseph Beguiristain is a South Florida native with 10-plus years of sports media experience. Before joining VegasInsider in July 2021, he wrote for the Sun-Sentinel and Miami Heat. More from Joseph Beguiristain