Last Updated Mar 13, 2023, 2:20 PM
Bayern Munich vs. PSG Champions League Picks, Predictions, Odds
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
2022-23 UEFA Champions League
Matchups & Odds
Knockout: Round of 16 | Quarterfinals | Semifinals | Final
It’s the crucial second leg of the biggest tie in the Champions League Round of 16 as the champions of France and Germany prepare to face off. A one-goal margin separates Bayern Munich from PSG as the Bundesliga side look to close out the tie in front of their home fans.
Will the "Parisians" rebound on the road with a short-handed squad or will we see another win for the "Bavarian Giants?"
Let's handicap the second-leg!
Bayern Munich vs. PSG Picks & Score Predictions
The bookies are expecting a high-scoring match in Wednesday's second-leg from Germany.
It was the same for the first leg that eventually finished 1-0 in favor of Bayern. Despite the multitude of chances in that game, I’m seeing more value in the under than the over here.
A 1-0 or 2-0 win for the hosts could see them kill the tie in front of their home supporters.
Bayern Munich 1 Paris Saint-Germain 0 (+1100)
Bayern Munich 2 Paris Saint-Germain 0 (+1100)
Bayern Munich vs. PSG Best Bets
I went for the overs in the first leg and I don’t want to make the same mistake here. Still, it feels unwise to go big on a drab match after a first leg that saw xG of over 1.5 for both teams. One bet that caught the eye is a double on a home win and a low-scoring affair.
Bayern to win the match and under 3.5 goals is available at +225. That opens up plenty of score lines that would see Bayern secure the tie by killing the match.
Game Best Bets:
Bayern Munich Win + Under 3.5 (+225)
Bayern Munich vs. PSG Odds
The German side is the favorite to win it in 90 minutes. It’s -125 for Julian Nagelsmann’s side to secure the result in normal time. The away side is out at +280 with a draw at +350.
With a one-goal aggregate lead, a Bayern double-chance would see them go through in normal time. It’s as low as -600 for the hosts to progress from this tie and +400 for the Parisians to cause an upset and reach the quarters.
Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain
Three-Way Match Odds
Bayern Munich -125
Paris Saint-Germain +280
Over 2.5 (-200)
Under 2.5 (+162)
Odds to win Champions League
Bayern Munich +350
Paris Saint-Germain +1800
Odds to Advance to Quarterfinals
Bayern Munich -600
Odds Subject to Change - per bet365
Bayern Munich Betting Outlook & Players to Watch
Bayern picked PSG apart at the Parc Des Princes thanks in part to some quick passing to the wide areas that stretched a static PSG defence. Bayern has the quality out wide to hurt any side and they showed that in Paris. Jamal Musiala and Kingsley Coman threatened throughout. The latter grabbed the only goal of the game against his former club. He’s +260 to score anytime here which looks like value.
But I’m looking at the full-back positions here too. Manchester City loanee Joao Cancelo has had a strong start to life in Bavaria. He played well in the first leg but only lasted 45 minutes before being replaced by the Canadian Alphonso Davies.
Whether the substitution was a flex about Bayern’s squad depth or a desire for defensive solidity, the threat is devastating. Expect Davies to get the nod here. He’s at +800 to score anytime which looks good considering how regularly he bombs forward. Look at the Canadian to bag an assist if available.
Player Prop Bet:
Anytime Goal Scorer - Kingsley Coman +260
Anytime Goal Scorer - Alphonso Davies +800
Paris Saint-Germain Betting Outlook & Players to Watch
With one-third of the fabled front three out of action, the onus is on the remaining two to star. Neymar will not play in this match. It’s a blow given the player’s pedigree results have improved in the Brazilian’s absence. PSG have won three in a row in all competitions for the first time since the World Cup. Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe have scored seven goals between them in the 230-or-so Ligue Un minutes since Neymar’s injury.
Both players impressed in that first leg - despite the scoreline. Mbappe’s pace devastated down the left and +160 for him to score anytime shouldn’t be ignored. However, with a goal in five of his last six domestic appearances, Messi any time looks good at +210.
With PSG likely shifting to a 3-5-2 formation, the onus will be on the wing-backs to provide an attacking threat out wide. That’s music to the ears of Nuno Mendes.
The Energetic Portuguese will burst forward for 90 minutes down PSG’s left. He was a threat in the first leg and will be the same here. +600 for Nuno Mendes to grab an assist looks awfully long.
Player Prop Best Bet:
Anytime Goal Scorer - Lionel Messi +210
Anytime Goal Scorer - Kylian Mbappe +160
Anytime Goal Scorer - Nuno Mendes +600
Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain Betting Resources
Date: Wednesday, Mar. 8, 2023
Matchup: Round of 16
Stadium: Allianz Arena
Location: Munchen, Germany
TV-Time: Paramount +, 3:00 p.m. ET
Be sure to follow Dan Jenkins on Twitter at DanJenkins at @DanJenkins_BE