UFC 277 Betting Odds Analysis

Amanda Nunes will look to reclaim the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship in the headline fight of UFC 277. Nunes was stunned by Julianna Pena at UFC 269 last December, putting a heavy dent in her aura of invincibility. Top flyweights Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France will square off in the co-main event of this promotion, and other top fighters like Derrick Lewis and Anthony Smith are on the card too.

UFC 277 will be held on Saturday, July 30, 2022, at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The main event will kick off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.


Updated on 10/04/2023
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Julianna Pena pulled off one of the biggest upsets in UFC history late last year. Pena was a humongous underdog against UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Amanda Nunes at UFC 269 with most sites listing Nunes at -1000 or more in this title fight. After all, Nunes hadn’t lost in over seven years, and she had dominated the women’s bantamweight and featherweight divisions. However, Pena showed that Nunes wasn’t invincible and pulled off a stunning upset by submitting the two-division title holder in the second round.

Although Nunes lost the last fight, she is a significant favorite heading into her rematch with Pena. Nunes is widely regarded as the best female fighter in the history of the UFC as she still holds the UFC Women’s Featherweight Championship and held both the bantamweight and featherweight titles for three years. She dominated the first round of her fight against Pena in December, but she was too overconfident in the second round. Nunes kept looking for the finish and absorbed a lot of blows, and Pena was eventually able to rock the champion and get the win.

That loss showed Nunes that she needed to respect her opponents. Her overconfidence was excusable given what she has done over the last seven years, but a little slice of humble pie should refocus her ahead of the rematch. Nunes is the superior fighter, and she has taken down opponents that are a lot more talented than Pena. The Lioness just needs to be more patient and not display the recklessness we saw in her first fight with Pena.

As long as Nunes is focused, it’s hard to see a way that Pena retains the belt. Pena does not have the same knockout power as Nunes, as she hasn’t scored a knockout victory in over seven years. Pena doesn’t have anything close to the same quality of victories as Nunes has under her belt, and she doesn’t have a way to really get inside on Nunes. All these factors should lead to a comfortable decision victory for a more disciplined Nunes. 

Prediction: Amanda Nunes by Unanimous Decision

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Julianna Pena UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5 Fights)

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
(WIN) Julianna Pena (+700) vs. Amanda Nunes

UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2
(WIN) Julianna Pena (-111) vs. Sara McMann

UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana
(LOSS) Julianna Pena (+140) vs. Germaine de Randamie

UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd
(WIN) Julianna Pena (-200) vs. Nicco Montano

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
(LOSS) Julianna Pena (+165) vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Amanda Nunes UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5 Fights)

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
(LOSS) Amanda Nunes (-1250) vs. Julianna Pena

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
(WIN) Amanda Nunes (-1000) vs. Megan Anderson

UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
(WIN) Amanda Nunes (-550) vs. Felicia Spencer

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
(WIN) Amanda Nunes (-410) vs. Germaine de Randamie

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
(WIN) Amanda Nunes (-360) vs. Holly Holm