UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan Picks, Predictions, Odds

Mackenzie Dern (12-2-0) and Yan “Nine” Xiaonan (15-3-0) will be the main event at the UFC APEX Saturday night with the winner hoping to put themselves in contention for a world title.  

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Yan is scheduled for Saturday, October 1st, 2022, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Prelims are scheduled to start at 4:00 PM ET, the main event will kick off at 7:00 PM ET, and the entire broadcast can be viewed on ESPN+.  

Updated on 04/28/2024

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MACKENZIE DERN vs. YAN XIAONAN PREDICTION

The main event between Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan is a huge fight for the strawweight division as Dern is currently ranked fifth and Yan ranked sixth. The winner of this fight will be creeping their way to the top of the division. This should be interesting fight as Dern likes to focus on her jiu-jitsu and play the ground game while Yan is very powerful and sharp on the feet.  

Most sportsbooks have Mackenzie Dern listed as a moderate favorite, right around (–230). Dern has won four of her last five fights with her most recent victory over Tecia Torres coming as a split decision. Torres found ways to counter Dern and stuff her takedowns and at the end of the fight many fans were not happy with the judge's decisions. Regardless, Dern’s best chance of winning this fight is taking it to the mat. If she can do that, there is a good chance Dern can end this thing with a submission rather quickly.  

Yan Xiaonan is the slight underdog headed into this fight at (+182). Yan has lost her last two fights, most recently a split decision against Marina Rodriguez. The key to this fight for Yan will be to keep it standing as she struggles on the ground as shown in her fight against Carla Esparza. Realistically, she should have a similar gameplan to what Tecia Torres had headed into her fight against Mackenzie Dern. If she can manage to not get taken down, Yan has a solid shot at winning this fight.  

If this fight stays off the mat, I think Yan pulls off the upset while if the fight ends up on the mat, I like Dern to take this fight. With that being said, I think Dern is able to land her takedowns and end this one with a submission victory. There is definitely value in Yan here, but I don’t think she’ll be able to keep this fight standing.  

Best Bet: Mackenzie Dern To Win By Submission (-110)

RANDY BROWN vs. FRANCISCO TRINALDO PREDICTION

The co-main event for Saturday features a Welterweight showdown between Randy “RudeBoy” Brown (15-4-0) and Francisco "Massaranduba" Trinaldo (28-8-0). Brown is the favorite in this fight at (–300) while Trinaldo is the slight underdog in this one at (+250).  

At 32 years of age, Randy Brown is not necessarily used to being the young man in the ring. However, that is exactly what he will be going against a 44-year-old Francisco Trinaldo. In addition to his youth, Brown also has an eight-inch reach advantage over Trinaldo which could turn out to be huge for Browns outside striking game. Speaking of the striking game, Brown lands 4.42 strikes per minute compared to Trinaldo’s 3.32 strikes per minute. Brown has won three straight fights with the last two coming by decision.  

If you thought Tom Brady was impressive playing in the NFL at the age of 45, wait until you find out that 44-year-old Franisco Trinaldo still steps into the octagon. While Trinaldo is the underdog in this fight, he has what it takes to win with his southpaw stance that gives a lot of guys problems on their feet. He’s won five of his last six fights, with his only loss coming by unanimous decision to Muslim Salikhov. Trinaldo has not been finished since 2017 and eight of his last 10 fights have gone the distance.  

I expect this fight to go the full three rounds with Randy Brown winning by decision as I think he has more going for him in this fight. Also, Trinaldo has shown to be a very sturdy fighter throughout his career and has rarely lost by submission or TKO. I would not add this bet to a parlay because Trinaldo could very well pull the upset off, but the best bet here is to back Randy Brown to win by decision.  

Best Bet: Randy Brown To Win By Decision (+120)

RAONI BARCELOS vs. TREVIN JONES PREDICTION  

Another fight featured on Saturday’s main card is Bantamweight bout between Raoni Barcelos (16-3-0) and Trevin “5 Star” Jones (13-8-0). Barcelos comes into this fight as the moderate favorite (-225) while Trevin Jones is a slight underdog at (+190).  

Jones will enter the octagon having loss his past two fights. The first coming by submission to  Saidyokub Kakhramonov and most recently losing by unanimous decision to Javid Basharat. While it's not ideal to lose back-to-back fights, both of those fighters are absolute animals in the ring. Kakhramanov is making his way to the title belt and Basharat has yet to lose a fight. My point being that these are exceptionally talented fighters he lost to. Jones carries some serious power and if he can counter some of Barcelos takedowns and make him work, do not be surprised to see him win this fight.  
Raoni Barcelos has also lost his past two fights, the first to Timur Valiev by majority decision and most recently to UFC newcomer at the time Victor Henry who Barcelos was expected to dominate. In both of those fights Barcelos looks like he has slowed down a bit compared to past fights. With that being said, when Barcelos is in the zone, he is a dangerous man and extremely well-rounded fighter. Expect him to focus on his wrestling and try and to use his speed when striking on his feet in this fight.  

I like the underdog Trevin Jones to win this fight. Barcelos has not looked good in his past two fights and Jones may not be getting enough respect here. Not to say that Jones is a lock by any means, but there is much more value in backing Jones in this fight. If Barcelos looks like his old self again, he gets the edge in this fight, but if not look out for Jones to wear Barcelos down and win the fight.  

Best Bet: Trevin Jones Moneyline (+195) 

SODIQ YUSUFF vs. DON SHAINIS PREDICTION 

A featherweight matchup between Sodiq “Super” Yusuff (12-2-0) and Don “Shameless” Shainis (12-3-0) is set for the main card at the UFC Apex on Saturday. Yusuff is the heavy favorite at (-900) while Shainis is the underdog at (+625).  

This will be Don Shainis UFC debut on a main card slot. A victory here would skyrocket his value within the UFC. Shainis is a tough fighter but has some flaws in his defense. He will have a huge task in front of him on Saturday going up against Yusuff. If Shainis wants to win this fight he’ll have to catch Yusuff off guard as Yusuff has proven himself to be a very polished fighter.  

Sodiq Yusuff has won four of his last fights with his only loss coming by unanimous decision to Arnold Allen. Yusuff should be able to stuff Shanis takedowns and has a four-and-a-half-inch reach advantage over Shanis. As long as he stays calm and does not try to do too much, Yusuff should be able to dominate this fight.  

I honestly don’t expect this to be much of a fight. Yusuff is an extremely tough opponent for someone making his UFC main card debut. Unless you are adding Yusuff monelyine to a parlay there is not much value there. Instead, the best play here is to back Yusuff to win by KO as Shanis has shown weakness in his defense.  

Best Bet: Sodiq Yusuff to win by KO/TKO/DQ (-150)

JOHN CASTANEDA vs. DANIEL SANTOS PREDICTION  

John “Sexi Mexi” Castaneda (19-5-0) and Daniel “Willycat” Santos (10-2-0) will be featured on Saturday’s main card in a Catchweight bout. Castaneda is the slight favorite in this fight at (-190) while Santos is the underdog at (+160).

Daniel Santos made his UFC debut in his most recent fight against Julio Arce and lost by unanimous decision. To be honest, it was not a great fight for Santos as Arce had total command from start to finish. Santos is an inch taller than Castenda but loses two inches in reach. Santos likes to be aggressive and push the pace, but in his debut he eventually slowed down and absorbed 8.47 strikes per minute which could be dangerous considering Castaneda lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute.  

John Castaneda is coming off back-to-back stoppage wins over Miles Johns and Eddie Wineland giving him an overall 2-1 record in the UFC. His only loss comes against Nathainel Wood by unanimous decision in Castaneda’s UFC debut. It may not seem like a huge advantage, but the fact that Castaneda has two more UFC fights than Santos is a big deal. He should be the better fighter in this matchup with a bit more power behind his shots.  

Santos just does not have enough UFC experience to judge at this point. In his first fight he did not look great, but he is a young fighter so who knows what we can expect from him on Saturday. To be honest, I do not think there is any value in backing Santos here. Castaneda moneyline is the best play here, but if you are looking for a more juice, Castaneda to win by submission (+600) is not a bad bet either.  

Best Bet: John Castaneda Moneyline (-190)  

MIKE DAVIS vs. VIACHESLAV BORSHCEV PREDICTION

A lightweight bout between Mike “Beast Boy” Davis (9-2-0) and Viacheslav “Slava Claus” Borshcev (6-2-0) is featured on Saturday’s main card. Davis will enter the octagon as the favorite at (-180) while Borshcev is listed as the underdog at (+155).  

Mike Davis is a well-rounded fighter that likes to strike and grapple and has a lot of natural fighting abilities. He has a few advantages over Slava Claus in this fight including a three-inch reach advantage, three more professional fights, and is also a year younger than Borshcev. Expect Davis to go head-head with Borshcev and try and win this fight via the ground game. If he can win this fight and continue to win, he has potential to challenge for the lightweight title.  

Viacheslav Borshcev is coming off an extremely poor performance against Marc Diakiese. Borshcev’s wrestling and grappling were exposed during that fight, showing that those skills are lacking big time. This could be a huge problem for Slava Claus if Davis focuses on taking this fight to the ground. Borshcev has been training with team Alpha Male who focuses on wrestling, but it takes time to see major improvements so it could be a while before his wrestling/grappling is up to par.  

I like Mike Davis to win this fight. His best plan of attack in this fight will be to take this one to the ground as Borshcev looked miserable wrestling in his last fight. If he chooses to turn this into a boxing match, there is a chance Borshcev could land a big shot and catch Davis off-guard. Not bad value in backing Mike Davis moneyline, but I’ll take the extra juice and back Mike Davis to win by decision (+200).  

Best Bet: Mike Davis To Win By Decision (+200)