Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:44 AM
UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane Picks, Predictions, Odds
UFC 265 Betting Resources
- Date: Saturday, August 7, 2021
- TV-Time: ESPN/ESPN+ 10:00 p.m. ET, ESPN PPV 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Toyota Center
- Location: Houston, Texas, U.S.
- Betting Odds Analysis
- UFC 265 Best Bets & Trends
The UFC is back with another stacked event on August the 7th, 2021, when UFC 265 headlined by Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane takes place in the Houston Toyota Center. The two men involved in the main event will fight for the UFC Heavyweight Interim Championship
Here we go over the fights of UFC 265 and predict the winners while looking at some betting lines to find some valuable picks.
UFC 265 Best Bets
UFC 265 Main Card Predictions
- Heavyweight Interim Championship: Ciryl Gane (-350) vs. Derrick Lewis (+280)
- Bantamweight Bout: Jose Aldo (-115) vs. Pedro Munhoz (-105)
- Welterweight Bout: Vicente Luque (-110) vs. Michael Chiesa (-110)
- Women's Strawweight Bout: Tecia Torres (-140) vs. Angela HIll (+115)
- Bantamweight Bout: Casey Kenney (-125) vs. Song Yadong (+105)
UFC 265 Main Event Prediction
Heavyweight Interim Championship
Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane Prediction
The knockout versus the decision.
Derrick 'The Black Beast' Lewis
Derrick Lewis, renowned for his crazy knockouts, gets to fight for a title for the second time in his career. ‘The Black Beast’ got his first title fight against Daniel Comier back in 2018, a fight which would end unfavorably for Lewis. Now, he has the opportunity to wrap a belt around his waist, after a four-fight win streak would elevate him to the top of the division.
Lewis, 36, is a natural power striker, evident by his 20 wins by knockouts. He has won a single fight by submission, and four fights by decision.
'The Black Beast' wants to win by counter striking. He usually hangs back and waits for his opponent to throw something, which he can then counter with his legendary power.
DERRICK LEWIS HIGHLIGHT
Since Lewis has such incredible power, he usually doesn't throw many strikes in order to conserve energy. At the same time, his opponents are very cautious of engaging him due to the danger he possess in his hands. These tendencies are reflected in his striking stats. He averages 2.59 strikes every minute, and absorbs 2.16. He lands with an accuracy of 50%, and has a striking defense of 44%.
Grappling wise, Lewis mostly works defensively. He only shoots for 0.52 takedowns every 15 minutes, and rarely attempts submissions. One of his biggest chinks in the armor is his takedown defense of 54%, yet in recent outings his anti-wrestling has held up. Against Curtis Blaydes, the best grappler in the 265-pound division, Lewis stopped all of Curtis' takedown attempts.
Lewis is 4-1 in his last five.
Ciryl 'Bon Gamin' Gane
Ciryl Gane, 31, is the most technical 245 lb man you’re ever going to see. The guy moves like someone half his size, and has a large toolbox to work with on the feet. He uses kicks, elbows, knees and every other strike you can think of to outstrike his opponents, and he prefers getting the job done by decision.
Gane is an extremely technical striker. The volume he throws makes him a rarity in the heavyweight division and he has an uncanny ability to dance around big power guys and take them to the scorecards.
CIRYL GANE HIGHLIGHT
Ciryl lands 5.13 strikes per minute while absorbing 2.60 strikes per minute on average. He lands with a 54% accuracy, and is well-versed defensively with a 63% striking defense.
Gane is very well-rounded, and can handle himself on the ground. He averages 0.82 takedowns per 15 minutes, and has a 21% takedown accuracy. Defensively, Gane has never been taken to the mat, and has a perfect takedown defense of 100%. He attempts 0.3 submission every three rounds, and has two 'sub wins in the UFC.
Gane is 5-0 in his last five, and has yet to taste defeat as a mixed martial artist.
So who wins? Lewis is obviously at a disadvantage in a point fight. However, he has shown before that he can lose 90% of a fight and win via last-second knockout. But can he do that against Gane?
It depends on how much space Gane will give Lewis. If he fights too cautiously, he might run into something big off Lewis at some point. That’s because giving Lewis space and giving him the center of the octagon allows him to fight in his preferred positions. Gane was perhaps too cautious in his last fight, which is why he got touched up a little bit by Volkov, at least more than we’re used to seeing Gane get hit.
Gane needs to establish himself as an authority in the octagon, and put Lewis on the back foot. Go back and watch Volkov completely dismantle Lewis for three rounds, and proceed to throw it all away in the end when giving Lewis some space to work with.
I know the narrative is that Lewis has a chance as an underdog, but Lewis actually does have a chance here as an underdog, and not just because of a lucky punch. Gane has some defensive tendencies that might cause him trouble against big punchers such as Lewis.
All in all, this fight being in the heavyweight division means everything for Lewis. In any other division, I’d pick Gane without a moment’s hesitation, but because of Gane’s overly defensive tendencies I think Lewis has a good shot here.
On the ground, Lewis has shown great defensive improvements in recent outings. His strength makes him very hard to keep down, and most heavyweight grapplers tend to gas out if they try to chain wrestle. I don't see Gane attempting more than a few takedowns.
Gane's reach advantage of two inches is statistically insignificant. His best chance of winning is to pressure Lewis and look for a finish with body kicks. I just don't think he wants to throw himself into range. He's too cautious, which is unfortunate for him because it might cost him the fight against Lewis.
Prediction: Derrick Lewis (+280) def. Ciryl Gane
Since I'm already leaning toward Lewis who is the underdog, it makes sense to go with him for the pick. He has a ton of historical betting upside as the 'dog in his UFC career - and of course he gets it done with a signature knockout.
UFC 265 Main Event Pick: Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO or DQ (+400)
UFC 265 Co-Main Event Prediction
Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz Prediction
After coming up short in a 135 lb fight for the title against Petr Yan, Aldo recently got back in the win column with a unanimous decision over Marlon Vera. Now it’s time for the Featherweight GOAT to show if he still has what it takes to compete at the highest level of MMA.
Jose 'Junior' Aldo
34-year old Jose Aldo has done it all. He conquered the UFC 145-pound division in his early twenties where an 18-fight win streak would leave him at G.O.A.T status. He has eight title wins under the UFC mantle.
The 5' 7'' Brazilian is renowned for his striking skills, and his leg kicks are out of this world. Furthermore, Aldo possess impeccable anti-wrestling abilities with a 91% takedown defense over 25 pro fights against the best of the best. He has only been taken down nine times.
JOSE ALDO HIGHLIGHT
Jose lands 3.45 strikes and absorbs 3.52 per minute. He strikes with a 45% accuracy and has a striking defense of 61%.
It's rare that we see Aldo willingly engaging in grappling exchanges, as he averages 0.57 takedowns and 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes.
Aldo has a reach of 70'' and fights in the orthodox stance.
Pedro 'The Young Punisher' Munhoz
Pedro Munhoz was your run-of-the-mill Bantamweight contender until a KO win over former champion Cody Garbrandt put him among the top contenders. After beating Garbrandt, Munhoz would lose two in a row, firstly dropping a unanimous decision to current Bantamweight Champion Aljamain Sterling and most recently being on the receiving end of a controversial loss to Frankie Edgar. However, in February of 2021 Munhoz bested former rival Jimmie Rivera and got back in the win column. Now it's his time to prove he can hang with the best of the best.
Munhoz, 34, is a high-volume striker averaging 5.60 strikes per minute while absorbing 5.87. He tends to throw himself into close range because he knows his chin can take whatever his opponent throws at him. It has held up so far as Munhoz has yet to taste defeat inside the distance in his 25 pro-fight career.
PEDRO MUNHOZ HIGHLIGHT
'The Young Punisher' strikes with a 43% accuracy, and does quite well defensively with a 58% striking defense.
The 5'6'' Brazilian has a reach of 65''. Like his opponent in this fight, Pedro rarely shoots for takedowns, but actually has a dangerous submission game. The 'sub is his main path to victory, and he has eight pro wins on his resume by way of submission.
Both fighters predominantly fight standing, yet Aldo made some interesting adjustments in his most recent bout that makes me favor the veteran over a guy like Pedro Munhoz. After two rounds judges had Aldo and Marlon Vera at 1-1. Round three saw a composed Aldo stick to Vera like a backpack for the majority of the round. Offensive grappling skills aren’t something we’ve seen a lot of from Aldo, so it’s interesting to see what he can do if he chooses to make grappling a part of his arsenal from here on out.
Munhoz is a power striker who prefers winning with a knockout. However, on the rare occasion that he somehow gets his opponent to the ground, he has a killer guillotine to work with. Dragging opponents down isn’t something he actively works to do though.
Given that Munhoz doesn’t go for takedowns (he has gotten four takedowns in his last 10 bouts), I think this matchup favors Aldo. He has a wealth of experience trading with some of the best strikers at 145 and 135-pounds. Jose also has a nice reach advantage of five inches which will do him very good against the more aggressive fighter. He can calmly stay at range and be the matador on Saturday.
The head movement of Aldo is very good, so Munhoz might have a bad time trying to find the target with a reach disadvantage.
All in all, Aldo is the more technical fighter, and his range and toolbox is bigger than Munhoz’ granted he uses his body shots and legendary leg kicks.
Prediction: Jose Aldo (-115) def. Pedro Munhoz
I'm going with Aldo to get the win over Pedro Munhoz at UFC 265. His five-inch reach advantage over a higher strike differential makes him a great valuable play here. Munhoz is tough to finish however, so I think Aldo beats him on the cards.
UFC 265 Co-Main Event Pick: Jose Aldo by Decision (+175)
Vicente Luque vs. Michael Chiesa Prediction
This bout is the grappler versus the brawler.
A win for Vicente Luque would most likely leave him one win away from a title shot. A win for Chiesa could at the very least cement his spot among top-ranked 170-pound contenders, or leave him next in line for a title elimination bout.
Vicente 'The Silent Assassin' Luque
Vicente Luque is one of the most violent fighters on the roster. In his 20 pro wins, 18 have been finishes. At the same time, he has never finished with strikes. Luque is 20-7-1 in MMA, and 13-3 in the UFC.
Luque lands 5.74 strikes per minute and absorbs 5.87 on average. 'The Silent Assassin' lands with a 54% accuracy, and has a striking defense of 52%. He is 5'11'' tall with a reach of 75''
VICENTE LUQUE HIGHLIGHT
Grappling wise, Luque rarely shoots for takedowns, averaging 0.66 per 15 minutes, but is very dangerous on the ground with a 0.9 submission rate every three rounds.
The 29-year old Luque has a takedown defense of 65%, but is willing to give up takedowns in order to secure submissions. His most frequently utilized submission is the D'arce choke.
Michael 'Maverick' Chiesa
Chiesa is in many ways the exact opposite of Luque. A point fighter who prefers getting top position on his opponents to win going the distance. Chiesa rarely inflicts heavy amounts of damage on his opponents, and usually looks to turn his bouts into a grappling match.
The 33-year old American mixed martial artist stands 6'1'' tall with a reach of 75''. He is 18-4 in MMA and 11-4 in the UFC.
Striking is not Chiesa's preferred area of expertise evident by his low striking numbers. 'Maverick' averages only 1.89 strikes per minute and lands with a 40% accuracy. He absorbs 1.71 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 54%.
MICHAEL CHIESA HIGHLIGHT
On the mat, Chiesa averages 0.9 submissions per 15 minutes. He gets 3.60 takedowns every three rounds, and has a 52% accuracy on his takedowns. Defensively, he stops 68% of opponents' takedowns.
Chiesa fights in the southpaw stance and has an average fight time of 9:59.
How Luque’s UFC run through the welterweight division isn’t more talked about is beyond me. He is 13-3 with wins over former Welterweight Champion Tyron Woodley, Randy Brown, and Belal Muhammad. He is the real deal.
Luque is no slouch on the ground himself, as he has a renowned submission ability. However, the wrestling aspect of his game is lacking, and he has been outwrestled before, most notably in his UFC debut against Michael Graves. However, since that fight happened six years ago, I’m sure the Brazilian has made some improvements since.
Against Chiesa who averages almost four takedowns every three rounds, Luque needs to decide whether he wants to try and remain standing to get a knockout, or if he wants to go down with Chiesa and hunt for the submission. Chiesa has been susceptible to submissions before.
All in all, Luque brings an extremely violent game to the octagon when he fights, and I don’t think someone like Chiesa will be able to fight Vicente for three rounds without sustaining heavy damage. Luque’s violence gets him a late finish against a gassed Chiesa.
Prediction: Vicente Luque (-125) def. Michael Chiesa
Going with Luque, I think it's safe to assume he gets the 'dub inside the distance, in typical Luque fashion. The guy has a finish rate of almost 100%, and Chiesa does not have the offense to establish an effective authority in the octagon. He will get finished unless he neutralizes Luque himself.
Women's Strawweight Bout
Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill 2 Prediction
Tecia 'The Tiny Tornado' Torres
31-year old American mixed martial artist, Tecia Torres, is on a two-fight win streak. She is mainly a point-fighter, winning 10 of her 12 pro wins via decision. Torres is 12-5 in MMA and 8-5 in the UFC.
'The Tiny Tornado' stands 5'1'' tall with a reach of 60''. She lands 4.30 strikes per minute with a 47% accuracy. She absorbs 3.37 punches on average, and has a 62% striking defense.
Torres averages 0.68 takedowns and 0.1 submissions every three rounds. When she shoots for her opponents' legs, she secures the takedown 15% of the time, and when she is on the receiving end of offensive grappling exchanges, she defends takedowns 56% of the time.
Tecia is 2-3 in her last 5 and has an average fight time of 13:32.
Angela 'Overkill' Hill
13-9 MMA veteran (8-9 in the UFC) Angela Hill is an aggressive striker with high volume. She lands 5.66 punches and absorbs 4.98 per minute on average, and lands with a 50% accuracy. Defensively, she avoids 64% of her opponents' strikes.
Hill stands 5'3'' tall with a reach of 64''.
The 36-year old is best when standing. Grappling wise, she lands 0.45 takedowns with a 36% accuracy every 15 minutes. She stop 76% of opponents' takedowns and attempts 0.1 submissions every three rounds.
Hill fights in the orthodox stance with an average fight time of 13:44.
Hill and Torres face each other for the second time on the UFC 265 card. Torres won the first fight via unanimous decision back in 2015.
Torres is a good striker with a strong clinching game. She doesn’t go for many takedowns and instead looks to win with control time in the clinch. She has a fairly wide strike differential and lands one more strike than she absorbs on average per minute.
Angela Hill is predominantly a striker that wants to outstrike her opponents from a distance. She has a decent finishing ability, but like most other fighters in the 115-pound division she mostly wins on the scorecards. It’s a divisional trend.
Torres will always have the clinch advantage, and the grappling advantage over Hill, which is a big x-factor in this fight. The first fight took place six years ago, but both fighters haven’t really evolved a lot since. Torres still looks to clinch and Hill still looks to strike at range.
Hill is definitely better striking wise, but the grappling aspect of MMA has always been a chink in Hill’s armor. Torres should look to clinch and wrestle.
I never know what to make of Hill, because she’s looked good recently, but she still has a tendency to drop split-decisions. There’s something in her game that makes her inconsistent.
This tendency is evident in her 13-9 record.
All in all, Torres has the advantage in the clinch, and statistically fighters that won the first fight win the second around seven out of 10 times. My pick is Torres.
Prediction: Tecia Torres (-140) def. Angela Hill
Casey Kenney vs. Song Yadong Prediction
Striker versus striker.
Song 'Kung Fu Monkey' Yadong
Song Yadong, (5-1-1 in the UFC), looks to get back in the win column after losing his first UFC fight against fellow prospect Kyler Phillips.
Yadong strikes with a 42% accuracy and lands 4.35 punches on average, while absorbing 3.64. He has a 57% striking defense.
SONG YADONG HIGHLIGHT
In the grappling department, Yadong averages 0.59 takedowns per 15 minutes, and has a takedown defense of 56%. On the rare occasion that he shoots for a takedown, he lands with a 75% accuracy. Once on the ground, Yadong goes for 0.4 submissions every 15 minutes.
The 23-year old Chinese mixed martial artist is 5'8'' tall with a reach of 67''. He fights in the orthodox stance. He has won three of his last five.
30-year old Arizona native Casey Kenney is 5-2 in the UFC (16-3-1 in MMA). He has a reach of 68'' and is 5'7'' tall.
Kenney is a volume striker with good striking, as he averages 4.81 punches per minute and lands with a 42% accuracy. He has a striking defense of 59%, and absorbs 4.30 strikes per minute.
Kenney is well-rounded, and knows his way around the grappling area too, averaging 1.10 takedowns and 0.5 submissions per 15 minutes. He shoots with a 39% accuracy, and defends opponents' takedowns 59% of the time.
Kenney fights in the southpaw stance and has gone the distance in all but one of his seven UFC bouts.
Casey Kenney is coming off a loss to former UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz, a fight he lost via unanimous decision.
Yadong is the bigger power puncher of the two, while Kenney is more well-rounded when it comes to striking - he is good at switching up the targets with leg kicks and strikes.
I have an issue with Kenney because of his tendency to react instead of acting. He tends to only strike when his opponent is striking him first. It was quite evident in his last outing against Cruz. This tendency is also reflected in his narrow strike differential.
Despite of this chink in the armor, Kenney is the better wrestler of the two, and his takedowns could hand him key rounds in a three round fight against a striker such as Yadong.
The power Yadong throws with usually leaves his hips open to getting taken down, and that’s where Kenney can find success if he’s sneaky.
However since Casey usually doesn’t blow his opponents out of the water with control time on the mat, I find it hard to believe he will turn into a chain wrestler against Yadong at UFC 265. He has trouble keeping his opponents down, and Yadong is very strong for 135 lbs.
Kenney has only been able to finish one fight in seven UFC bouts, which tells me he doesn't possess a killer instinct. Some fighters, if good enough, can implement a point fighting style to great effect - such as Dominick Cruz. However, when you almost absorbs as many strikes as you land, you don't have point fighting abilities that will make you win on the cards consistently.
Yadong keeps it on the feet and does the most damage. The damage will be scored heavily in this bout, as Kenney's punches are mostly light attacks.
Prediction: Song Yadong (-105) def. Casey Kenney
UFC 265 Preliminary Card Predictions
- Lightweight Bout: Rafael Fiziev (-300) vs. Bobby Green (+240)
- Bantamweight Bout: Drako Rodriguez (-115) vs. Vince Morales (-105)
- Light Heavyweight Bout: Alonzo Menifield (-250) vs. Ed Herman (+200)
- Women's Flyweight Bout: Jessica Penne (+120) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-145)
UFC 265 Featured Preliminary Bout Prediction
Rafael Fiziev vs. Bobby Green Prediction
Hyped 155-pound prospect Rafael Fiziev gets to test himself against divisional veteran Bobby Green at UFC 265. Fiziev is fresh off a knockout win over Renato Moicano, while Green most recently dropped a controversial decision to Thiago Moises. Who will win?
Rafael ‘Ataman’ Fiziev
28-year old Rafael Fiziev flunked his UFC debut back in 2019, losing via first-round TKO to Magomed Mustafaev. He has bounced back since then, and has chained together three wins in a row. The 9-1, (3-1 in the UFC), Kyrgyz fighter is renowned for his striking ability, and has won six of his nine wins via knockout, one via submission, and two by decision.
Fiziev has a reach of 71 inches and stands 5' 8'' tall. He fights in the switch stance.
‘Ataman’ lands 4.67 strikes while absorbing 4.17 per minute on average. He is accurate for his high volume, with a 57% striking accuracy. Defensively, he avoids 55% of his opponents’ strikes.