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May 04, 2022

UFC 274 Betting Odds Analysis

Next up on the UFC pay-per-view schedule is UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje. The event will take place on May 7, 2022 at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona, United States.

A UFC Lightweight Championship bout between current champion Charles Oliveira and former interim champion Justin Gaethje will headline the event, and a UFC Women's Strawweight Championship rematch between current two-time champion Rose Namajunas and former champion Carla Esparza will serve as the co-main event. Namajunas and Esparza have met previously seven and a half years ago at The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale for the inaugural championship where Esparza won via third-round submission.

Other notable appearances on the UFC 274 card include all-time fan favorite Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone, and Michael Chandler taking on Tony Ferguson.

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje Odds

The betting line for Charles Oliveira versus Justin Gaethje opened in late January with most books, and little action has been taken on either side so far. 

FighterJan. 31Apr. 25Apr. 28
Oliveira (c)-161-164-170

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje Odds Comparison

Bettors have plenty of options to bet Oliveira vs. Gaethje and you can compare the odds at three of the most popular betting operators in the United States.

Oliveira (c)-165-166-165

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje Odds Analysis

Despite being on a ten-fight win streak Oliveira has gotten no love from the sportsbooks throughout the majority of his career. Closing at an average -114 in his 29 total UFC outings, Oliveira is the definition of positive expected value. Oliveira has won 72% of his fights in the UFC, yet his average odds have him winning just 53% of the time.

In three of Oliveira’s last five fights he has cashed as a plus-money underdog, however it seems that bookies have now caught on to him, having him listed as the favorite in his upcoming title defense against Justin Gaethje.

Historically ten-fight win streaks are rare in the UFC, and only some of the best fighters of all time have been able to amass so many back to back wins. Oliveira’s reign could just be getting started.

Gaethje is more of a fan-favorite, appropriately nicknamed ‘The Highlight’. The guy has won a performance bonus in eight of his nine UFC outings. When he steps in the octagon you will see an entertaining fight - it’s a law of nature.

If we dive into the specifics of this matchup, Oliveira is the rightful favorite. Gaethje is a dangerous striker, but he does not have good grappling. The wrestling he has is very underutilized in general, but when he does use it it’s mostly for defensive purposes.

As a rule of thumb, expect sharp money early and casual money late. Risk averse sharp punters take advantage of errors in opening lines and look for arbitraging possibilities whereas casual bettors want to lay little to win a lot - usually on the guy they already know.

Gaethje is the fan-favorite in this matchup, and I do think money will start pouring in on him around the week of the fight. Before that, I think sharps will look to cap the champion here.

That being said, looking at how the line has moved in Oliveira’s last few fights might give us an indication of how the betting market values Charles. In three of Oliveira’s last five outings the steam has been coming in on the opposite side of him. I suspect it’s due to his eight career losses. People have a hard time looking past that stuff. I also think his outings against Chandler and Poirier could have an effect. People might think he will get knocked out against Gaethje since he was dropped in both of those outings.

Personally I think the value is on Oliveira. Gaethje is a brawler with little to offer on the ground. We’ve seen before that Oliveira doesn’t even need takedowns to win. He just backpacked Poirier and choked him out standing. 

Against Nurmagomedov, Gaethje showed a tendency to get on his hands and knees when taken down, allowing Khabib to easily get to his back. Oliveira will have those same opportunities in this fight.

Final verdict: The value is on Charles Oliveira.

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UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje In-Depth Preview

Charles Oliveira

The current lightweight champion, Charles Oliveira, is looking better every time he steps foot in the octagon. Currently riding on a 10-fight win streak, Oliveira has been nothing short of consistent ever since moving up from featherweight. The champion holds multiple records in the UFC, notably leading for most submission wins (15) in the organization's history. as well as for most finishes (18).

Oliveira currently occupies the fifth ranking on the UFC men's pound-for-pound list. His claim to fame is his grappling game, however the 32-year-old has shown a developed offensive striking game in recent fights too, knocking out esteemed power puncher Michael Chandler not too long ago and going head to head with Dustin Poirier in his most recent bout.

Oliveira's well rounded fighting style makes him an incredibly entertaining guy to watch. The win streak that he is on right now consists of nine finishes and just one decision. He is always one to watch in the octagon.

Biggest strength: Grappling

Oliveira's grappling is his bread and butter, but not simply due to his submission game - he is a very good wrestler too. On the ground he usually goes for submissions, but always stays in controlling positions. In the UFC he has averaged 2.50 takedowns every 15 minutes. When he shoots he secures a takedown 41% of the time and once on the ground he starts working for those submissions right away. He has averaged 2.8 submission attempts every 15 minutes in the UFC, which means he goes for submissions more often than he lands takedowns.

Oliveira has 20 submission wins career-wide with 15 of them coming inside the UFC octagon.

Biggest weakness: Striking defense

Leading up to Oliveira's fight with Dustin Poirier, 'The Diamond' was surprisingly vocal about the chinks he saw in Oliveira's armor. He specifically pointed to the champion's defensive striking capabilities as a reason he thought he might win, and although the fight ended up going Charles' way I think Poirier was right in his assessment in many ways.

As Poirier put it, the alarm bells aren't going off for Oliveira when they should be - he is hittable.

Oliveira has been cracked in both of his most recent fights. Against Poirier he recovered rather quickly after getting dropped in round one, however his fight against Chandler could easily have been stopped on another given night with another referee in there. Whether Charles has worked on fixing this hole in his game, time will tell, however I will say that if he hasn't, walking into shots from Gaethje, perhaps the hardest hitting lightweight on the roster right now, is going to cost him.

Oliveira’s UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
(W) Charles Oliveira (+120) vs. Dustin Poirier

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
(W) Charles Oliveira (-140) vs. Michael Chandler

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
(W) Charles Oliveira (+130) vs. Tony Ferguson

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
(W) Charles Oliveira (+120) vs. Kevin Lee

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacaré
(W) Charles Oliveira (-400) vs. Jared Gordon

Gaethje’s UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5)

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
W) Justin Gaethje (-225)
vs. Michael Chandler

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
(L) Justin Gaethje (+240) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
(W) Justin Gaethje (+200) vs. Tony Ferguson

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
(W) Justin Gaethje (-200) vs. Donald Cerrone

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
(W) Justin Gaethje (+100) vs. Edson Barboza

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