UFC 279 Betting Odds Analysis

Khamzat Chimaev has been one of the most hyped UFC fighters over the last two years in quite some time. Chimaev made his promotion debut in Abu Dhabi in July 2020 and proved that he was a special fighter by defeating another opponent just 10 days later, breaking the modern record for fastest turnaround between UFC wins. Everyone expects him to receive a title shot sometime next year, but first he must defeat the legendary Nate Diaz. Chimaev is one of the largest favorites we’ve ever seen in a UFC main event though, as the oddsmakers think that Diaz is well past his prime.

Sin City will be the site of UFC 279. This promotion will be held at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, September 10, 2022. The main event will get underway at 10 p.m. ET.




Many fans were expecting to see Khamzat Chimaev take on another top contender if not receive a title shot after his last win over Gilbert Burns at UFC 273. Chimaev is now 11-0 with 10 finishes in his professional MMA career, and he proved that he could go the distance if he needs to against Burns. He won the fight by unanimous decision, and he took real punishment for the first time in his MMA career.

Chimaev has earned a bonus in each of his five fights in the UFC. He earned Performance of the Night bonuses for his finishes against his first four opponents, and Chimaev and Burns shared a Fight of the Night bonus in April. His explosive finishes have already made him a fan favorite, and he will face one of the sport’s legends in Nate Diaz.

Nate Diaz has been in the UFC for 15 years at this point. Diaz has provided the promotion with some of its most memorable finishes, and that led to him taking on Jorge Masvidal for the BMF Championship in November 2019. Unfortunately for Diaz, he lost that fight, and he has now dropped three of his last four bouts.

While Diaz is beloved, he has not challenged for a real title since December 2012. He has lost six of his last 10 fights, and he has only fought three times in the last six-plus years. His ability to take punishment and go the distance has been commended repeatedly, and that seems to be the real challenge here. No one is really expecting Diaz to beat Chimaev, they are just waiting to see if Chimaev can become just the fourth fighter to earn a finish of Diaz.

Method of Victory: Khamzat Chimaev by Knockout

(Getty Images)


Khamzat Chimaev UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5 Fights)

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
(WIN) Khamzat Chimaev (-500) vs. Gilbert Burns

UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
(WIN) Khamzat Chimaev (-420) vs. Li Jingliang

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
(WIN) Khamzat Chimaev (-485) vs. Gerald Meerschaert

UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till
(WIN) Khamzat Chimaev (-1050) vs. Rhys McKee

UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige
(WIN) Khamzat Chimaev (-500) vs. John Phillips

Nate Diaz UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5 Fights)

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
(LOSS) Nate Diaz (+385) vs. Leon Edwards

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
(LOSS) Nate Diaz (+135) vs. Jorge Masvidal

UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
(WIN) Nate Diaz (+110) vs. Anthony Pettis

UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
(LOSS) Nate Diaz (+122) vs. Conor McGregor

UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz
(WIN) Nate Diaz (+375) vs. Conor McGregor




After winning 12 straight fights in an eight-year stretch, Tony Ferguson is in the middle of the worst losing streak of his career. Ferguson was one of the top lightweights for years and claimed the interim UFC Lightweight Championship at UFC 216, but he has not been the same fighter since he was rocked by Justin Gaethje a little over two years ago at UFC 249. Gaethje seems to have shown the blueprint for beating Ferguson, as Ferguson has now lost four straight fights and was knocked out cold in the second round by Michael Chandler at UFC 274 this spring.

This could be the last time that Ferguson is a ranked fighter. He is currently ranked No. 11 in the UFC Welterweight Rankings, but he will turn 39 in February and has not looked sharp in any of his previous four fights.

Li Jingliang is no spring chicken at the age of 34, but he has the type of skillset needed to beat Ferguson in this fight. Although Jingliang has been a frustrating fighter for oddsmakers to figure out, there’s a reason he is a sizeable favorite by the UFC betting odds in this one. He has the lower-body power needed to keep Ferguson from getting too close, and that will mitigate Ferguson’s reach advantage.

It may be tempting to bet Ferguson here given his track record and the juicy odds, but the one-time champ is a shadow of his former self. He seems to have lost a step or two, and he no longer has the same stamina he did during his winning streak.

Prediction: Li Jingliang by Decision


Li Jingliang UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5 Fights)

UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
(WIN) Li Jingliang (+136) vs. Muslim Salikhov

UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
(LOSS) Li Jingliang (+400) vs. Khamzat Chimaev

UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar
(WIN) Li Jingliang (+285) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio

UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
(LOSS) Li Jingliang (-172) vs. Neil Magny

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang
(WIN) Li Jingliang (+225) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Tony Ferguson UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5 Fights)

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
(LOSS) Tony Ferguson (+310) vs. Michael Chandler

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
(LOSS) Tony Ferguson (+130) vs. Beneil Dariush

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
(LOSS) Tony Ferguson (-161) vs. Charles Oliveira

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
(LOSS) Tony Ferguson (-230) vs. Justin Gaethje

UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
(WIN) Tony Ferguson (-210) vs. Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone