CFL Betting Notes - Week 16
September 24, 2019
By David Schwab
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This past weekend of betting action in the CFL got underway with pair of inter-division matchups. Calgary got things started by squeezing past Toronto 23-16 in a tight cover as a 6 ½-point road favorite. Hamilton kept the trend going as a slight 1 ½-point favorite on the road with a 30-27 victory over Edmonton.
Saturday’s doubleheader of inter-division games saw Montreal sneak past Winnipeg 38-37 closing as a slight 2 ½-point home favorite. In another West Division victory as a 3 ½-point road favorite, British Columbia clobbered Ottawa 40-7 to close out Week 15.
Friday, Sept. 27
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (10-3 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -4
The Tiger-Cats are firmly in control of the East Division title race with five SU victories in their last six games. They have gone 3-2-1 against the spread in that same span with the total staying UNDER in three of their last five contests. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of Hamilton’s 13 games this season. After posting 21 unanswered points in the first quarter against Edmonton, the Tiger-Cats needed a last-second field goal to secure the win. Dane Evans put the ball up 30 times and he completed 22 passes for 336 yards and three touchdowns.
With the Blue Bombers’ loss to Montreal, their lead in the West Division title race has quickly disappeared. They have lost two of their last three games SU and Saturday was the first time they failed to cover ATS in their last five games. The total has stayed UNDER in three of Winnipeg’s las four home games. Quarterback Matt Nichols remains out with a shoulder injury. In his place, Chris Streveler ended Saturday’s game with 180 yards passing with one touchdown throw and one interception. The Blue Bombers blew a 20-point fourth quarter lead in that stunning loss.
-- Hamilton has a 3-1-1 edge ATS in its last five games against the Blue Bombers and it is 11-5 SU in the last 16 meetings in this inter-division clash. The total has stayed UNDER in the last five meetings overall.
Saturday, Sept. 28
Edmonton Eskimos (6-7 SU, 4-9 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (3-10 SU, 4-9 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -7
The Eskimos slipped below .500 with Friday’s loss but they are still in position for a crossover spot in the playoffs out of the West. They have now lost their last four games both straight-up and against the spread with the total going OVER in four of their last five contests. Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in six pervious road games and it failed to cover as a 10-point home favorite in a tight 16-12 victory against Ottawa on Aug. 9. Logan Kilgore got the start at quarterback on Friday night and he threw for 223 yards and a score while also tossing three interceptions.
Ottawa extended its current SU losing streak to six games with this latest blowout loss. It has also failed to cover in its last five contests while averaging just 10.8 points per game. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the RedBlacks’ last six outings. This loss also completed a home-and-home sweep by the Lions by a combined score of 69-12. It is hard to see Ottawa playing any worse, but it is a distinct possibility given the poor play on either side of the ball.
-- Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last five games against the RedBlacks and the total stayed UNDER in all five meetings. The total has also stayed UNDER in six of the last seven meetings in Ottawa.
Saskatchewan Roughriders (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) at Toronto Argonauts (2-10 SU, 5-5-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -6
Coming off a bye week, the Roughriders are 7-1 SU in their last eight games, but they have failed to cover in their last three outings. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six games. They started the season series against Toronto with a 32-7 victory at home on July 1 to easily cover as heavy 11 ½-point favorites. Saskatchewan is 3-2 ATS on the road this season and 5-3 ATS when closing as a favorite. Cody Fajardo is ranked fourth in the CFL in total passing yards (2,862) and he has tossed 10 touchdowns against seven interceptions.
Toronto’s loss to Calgary was its fourth SU setback in its last five games with a 2-1-2 record ATS. The total stayed UNDER the closing 53-point spread in that game after going OVER in four of its previous five outings. The Argonauts are 3-2-1 ATS in six home games this season and they are an even 5-5-2 ATS in 12 games closing as underdogs. James Franklin replaced McLeod Bethel-Thompson at quarterback in the second half. He completed 12-of-16 passes for 147 yards and a score.
-- Saskatchewan has won six of the last seven meetings SU with a 5-2 edge ATS. The total stayed UNDER 52 points in the first meeting this season.
Montreal Alouettes (7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS) at British Columbia (3-10 SU, 6-7 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -3
Total: 49 ½
Montreal is still 2 ½ games in back of Hamilton in the East Standings, but maintaining pressure with four SU victories in its last five games. Betting on the Alouettes remains a mixed bag at 3-4 ATS in their last seven outings. The total went way OVER 47 points in Saturday’s wild win after staying UNDER in three of their previous five games. Vernon Adams Jr. continues to be the big story in Montreal this season. He helped engineer the three-touchdown comeback on Saturday as part of his 488 passing yards on the day. He threw four touchdowns against one interception while completing 27 of his 43 passing attempts. Unfortunately, he is out of this game due to a one-game league suspension.
BC has very few losses to give at 3-10 overall to stay in playoff contention. The sweep against Ottawa followed a SU seven-game losing streak. The Lions are a profitable 5-1 ATS over their last six games with the total staying UNDER in their last five games. Mike Reilly successfully followed up a solid performance against Ottawa in the series opener. He completed 77.8 percent of his 27 passing attempts in the rematch for 353 yards and two scores verse one interception. BC added 144 yards on ground in that win.
-- BC has covered ATS in nine of its last 10 home games against the Alouettes and it is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings at BC Place. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings overall.