CFL Betting Notes - Week 19
October 14, 2019
By David Schwab
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Friday’s betting action in the CFL kicked things off in Week 18 of the regular season with Toronto getting past Ottawa 28-21 to cover as a 2 ½-point home favorite. Later that night, Calgary outlasted Saskatchewan 30-28 but the Stampeders failed to cover as 3 ½-point favorites at home.
In the second half of games on Saturday, Winnipeg upended Montreal 35 to 24 as a four-point home favorite and Edmonton secured the final CFL playoff spot with its 19-6 victory at home against British Columbia closing as a 2 ½-point underdog.
Friday, Oct. 18
Toronto Argonauts (3-12 SU, 6-7-2 ATS) at Montreal Alouettes (8-7 SU, 9-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Montreal -10 ½
Toronto’s tight victory against Ottawa snapped a straight-up three-game losing streak. The Argonauts are an even 2-2-2 against the spread in their last six games. The total went OVER 48 points in Friday’s win and it has gone OVER in seven of their last nine contests. They are 2-4-1 ATS this season in seven previous road games. McLeod Bethel-Thompson connected with SJ Green 12 times in Friday’s win for 170 yards and he tossed two touchdown throws to Armanti Edwards in the winning effort.
The Alouettes beat Toronto on the road 28-22 in late August, but they could not cover as seven-point favorites. Saturday’s loss to Winnipeg dropped Montreal to 2-3 SU in its last five games but it is 4-1 ATS during that same span. The total has gone OVER in three of the five games. This weekend’s highlights include Mario Alford’s punt return for a touchdown but quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. had one of his errant passes returned for a score. He ended the day with two touchdown throws and four interceptions.
-- The Alouettes have won five of their last six games against Toronto at home both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in 18 of the last 23 meetings in this East Division rivalry and it has stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 13 meetings in Montreal.
Saskatchewan Roughriders (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS) at British Columbia (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -2
Friday’s loss dropped Saskatchewan into a tie for first in the West Division standings. This was just its second SU loss in its last 11 games. The Roughriders have been able to cover in their last three games and the total has gone OVER in three of their last four outings. They have a 5-2 record ATS on the road their season. Cody Fajardo went 20-for-32 with 209 yards passing and one touchdown but he was burned on an interception for a score in Friday’s crucial loss. He also led the team in rushing with 67 yards on 10 carries.
The Lions will be trying to avoid the season sweep after losing a home-and-home series against Saskatchewan both SU and ATS in late July. The total went OVER in each of those games. BC was eliminated from the postseason with Saturday’s lost and adding injury to insult is the loss of quarterback Mike Reilly with an apparent broken wrist. Danny O’Brien took his place and completed just 12 of his 23 passes for 103 yards and an interception. John White rushed for 84 yards on 11 carries in the losing effort.
-- The Roughriders bring a five-game winning streak over the Lions both SU and ATS into Friday’s matchup. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings at BC Place but overall it has stayed UNDER in 17 of the last 25 matchups.
Saturday, Oct. 19
Ottawa RedBlacks (3-12 SU, 5-10 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (12-3 SU, 10-4-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -17
The season continues to spiral downward for the RedBlacks in the midst of a SU eight-game losing streak while going 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. The total went OVER 48 points in the loss to Toronto after staying UNDER the closing line in five of Ottawa’s previous seven outings. Will Arndt got the start in Friday’s loss at quarterback and he completed 28 of his 42 passing attempts for 288 yards. He tossed two touchdown throws but he was also picked off three times. The RedBlacks gained just 59 yards running the ball on 12 rushing attempts.
The Tiger-Cats come off a bye week with seven SU wins in their past eight games. They have covered the spread in their last four games as part of a 5-2-1 record ATS in that same span. Hamilton is 7-3-1 closing as a favorite this season and it has a 5-1-1 record ATS in seven previous home games this year. Dane Evans has started 11 games at quarterback and he has 2,923 passing yards while completing 70.5 percent of his 336 passing attempts. He has thrown 16 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.
-- Hamilton snapped a SU five game losing streak to Ottawa earlier this season but it is 0-5 both SU and ATS in its last five home games against the RedBlacks. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings at Tim Hortons Field.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (10-5 SU, 5-9-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -7
Total: 50 ½
The Blue Bombers are just a half game off the pace in the West with a game in hand after Saturday’s win. This was just their second SU win in the last six games while going an even 3-3 ATS. The total went OVER 46 ½ points against Montreal after staying UNDER in four of their previous five games. Winnipeg got a big effort from Andrew Harris running the ball in that win with 166 yards rushing and one score on 24 carries. Quarterback Chris Streveler added another 64 yards on nine rushing attempts to go with his 174 yards passing.
With five SU victories in their last six games, the Stampeders are closing in on another West Division title. They remain a tough team to bet on with a 2-4-1 record ATS over their last seven games. Calgary is 2-6 ATS at home this season and 1-8-1 ATS closing as a favorite. Bo Levi Mitchell completed 23 of his 29 passes Friday night for 298 yards and two scores. He completed passes to seven different players led by Reginald Begelton with six receptions for 90 yards. Two of Hergy Mayala’s five catches went for scores.
-- Calgary has won 19 of the last 23 games against Winnipeg SU, but it lost to the Blue Bombers on the road earlier this season. The Stampeders are 16-2 SU in their last 18 home games against their division rivals. Overall, the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings.