CFL Betting Notes - Week 21
October 29, 2019
By David Schwab
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Heading into the final round of games in the CFL regular season, Winnipeg was able to close out its 18-game schedule with an impressive 29-28 upset over Calgary last Friday night as a three-point home underdog. The Blue Bombers have a Week 21 bye.
In the first of three Saturday games in Week 20, Hamilton kept rolling along with a 38-26 road victory against Montreal as a 2 ½-point favorite. Toronto hammered Ottawa 39-9 as a six-point favorite at home and Saskatchewan is one step closer to the West Division title with a 27-24 road win against Edmonton to cover as a 2 ½-point favorite.
Friday, Nov. 1
Montreal Alouettes (9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (3-14 SU, 5-13 ATS)
Point-spread: Montreal -9 ½
Montreal is locked into a first-round playoff matchup against Edmonton as a crossover team from the West regardless of this week’s results. The Alouettes split the first two games against Ottawa both straight-up and against the spread with the road team getting the win. The total went OVER in each contest. With Saturday’s loss, they are 2-3 (SU and ATS) over their last five games with the total staying UNDER in three of the five outings. Montreal gave up close to 400 yards passing and four touchdown throws in the loss to Hamilton.
The RedBlacks have been riding out the string for quite some time in the midst of a SU 10-game losing streak. They have also failed to remain competitive in most of those losses with a 2-8 record ATS. Ottawa is 2-6 ATS at home and 5-8 ATS when closing as an underdog. The RedBlacks were held to 261 yards of total offense in Saturday’s loss. Will Arndt got the start at quarterback and he completed 21-of-32 passing attempts for 194 yards and a score.
-- With the 1-1 split against Montreal in the season series, Ottawa has gone 11-3 SU in the last 14 meetings with a 10-4 record ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last nine games between the two East Division rivals.
Saturday, Nov. 2
Edmonton Eskimos (8-9 SU, 5-12 ATS) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (12-5 SU, 12-5 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -7 ½
Total: 47 ½
With the loss (SU and ATS) in the frontend of this home-and-home series, Edmonton is 2-6 SU over its last eight outings with a costly 1-7 record ATS. The total went OVER 47 points in Saturday’s loss and it has gone OVER in six of the Eskimos’ last nine games. They are 2-6 ATS in eight previous road games this season. Edmonton lost the first game against Saskatchewan on a 43-yard field goal in the closing seconds. Trevor Harris returned to action at quarterback and threw for 321 yards on 27 completions. He tossed one touchdown and two interceptions.
The Roughriders are one win away from clinching the West Division and a first round bye in the playoffs. This was their fifth SU win in their last six games while covering the closing spread in their last five outings. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six games. Edmonton had no answer for stopping Cody Fajardo in Saturday’s loss. He completed 25 of his 35 passing attempts for 429 yards and two scores. Saskatchewan added 100 more yards on the ground on 14 rushing attempts.
-- The Roughriders have won four of their last six games against the Eskimos SU and they have a 6-2 edge ATS in the last eight matchups in this West Division clash. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings.
Toronto Argonauts (4-13 SU, 8-7-2 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (14-3 SU, 12-4-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -13 ½
Total: 53 ½
Toronto started this season with a 64-14 loss to the Tiger-Cats as a four-point home underdog. It also lost an early September road game against its East Division rivals as an 11-point underdog in a game that ended as a PUSH. The total went OVER in each meeting. The Argonauts have a 3-4-1 record ATS on the road this year. Three different quarterbacks saw action in Saturday’s win. Dakota Prukop got a chance to start the third quarter and he threw a pair of touchdowns to blow the game wide open.
The Tiger-Cats are set as the top seed in the East, so it is hard to say how they will approach this game. They have won nine of their last 10 games SU with a 6-0-1 record ATS over their last seven outings. The total went OVER 52 ½ points in the win against Montreal and it has gone OVER in three of their last five games. Hamilton is 6-1-1 ATS at home and it has a 9-3-1 record ATS when closing as favorites. Dane Evans completed 80.6% of his 36 passing attempts in Saturday’s win for 379 yards and four scores.
-- Hamilton has won nine of its last 10 home games against Toronto SU with a 6-1-1 record ATS in the last eight meetings at Tim Hortons Field. The total has gone OVER in the last five games between these two East Division rivals.
Calgary Stampeders (11-6 SU, 5-11-1 ATS) at British Columbia Lions (5-12 SU, 7-10 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -6 ½
Calgary did not do itself any favors with Friday’s loss in its quest to repeat as West Division champs. Now, it needs a win this game and get some help to secure the title. The Stampeders have really been tough to bet on lately with a 0-5-1 record ATS over their past six games. The total has gone OVER in their last three outings. They blew a 10-point lead heading into the fourth quarter of last Friday’s game. You cannot blame Bo Levi Mitchell for that setback. He finished the game with 350 passing yards and four touchdown throws.
The Lions come off last week’s bye with a 1-3 record ATS in their last four games while going 2-2 SU. Going back to a loss to Winnipeg on the road in mid-August, the total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last nine games. BC is 3-5 ATS at home this season and the total has stayed UNDER in four of its last five home games. Quarterback Mike Reilly is done for the season due to injury. In his place, Danny O’Brien was under center in the Lions’ 27-19 loss to Saskatchewan on Oct. 18. He threw for 171 yards with one touchdown throw and one interception.
-- With a win at home earlier in the season, Calgary is 8-1 SU in its last nine games against BC. The Stampeders are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games against the Lions and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings overall.