CFL Betting Notes - Div Finals
November 5, 2019
By David Schwab
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The final weekend of CFL regular season games kicked things off with Montreal posting its 10th straight-up victory of the year by beating Ottawa 42-32 as a seven-point road favorite on Friday night.
In the first of three Saturday games, Saskatchewan clinched the West Division title with a 23-13 victory against Edmonton in a PUSH as a 10-point home favorite. Hamilton closed out its season with a tight 21-18 win at home against Toronto, but the Tiger-Cats came nowhere close to covering the 13 ½-point spread. Calgary closed as a 6 ½-point road favorite against British Columbia and the Stampeders failed to cover in a 21-16 decision.
Sunday, Nov. 10
Edmonton Eskimos (8-10 SU, 5-12-1 ATS) at Montreal Alouettes (10-8 SU, 10-8 ATS)
Point-spread: Montreal -1 ½
Edmonton enters the playoffs as a crossover team from the West Division. The Eskimos split the season series against Montreal SU with the home team winning each meeting. They were 0-2 ATS with the total staying UNDER 54 points in a 20-10 loss to the Alouettes as 5 ½-point road favorites. Edmonton has just two straight-up wins over its last nine games with a 1-7-1 record against the spread. The total has stayed UNDER in three of its last five contests. It has gone 2-6-1 ATS on the road this season.
Logan Kilgore took the majority of the snaps at quarterback in the season finale. He completed 12-of-22 passes for 88 yards with two touchdown throws against one interception. Taking over for the injured Trevor Harris over final six games of the season, he has thrown for 1,199 yards while completing 65.5 percent of his 174 attempts. Kilgore has six touchdown passes against nine interceptions.
This will be Montreal’s first postseason appearance since the 2014 CFL season. The Alouettes followed a SU win with a SU loss in each of their past nine outings. They went 5-4 ATS during this same span with the total going OVER in three of their final four games. Montreal failed to cover the closing spread in five of its final seven home games.
Vernon Adams Jr. completed 13-of-16 passing attempts in limited action Friday night for 126 yards and two touchdowns before giving way to Matt Shiltz. Adams finished the regular season with 3,942 total passing yards while completing 65.7 percent of his 431 passing attempts. He tossed 24 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. William Stanback was the Alouettes’ leading rusher with 1,048 yards and five scores on 170 carries. He gained 45 yards on seven rushing attempts against Ottawa.
-- With the SU season split, Edmonton has won 11 of its last 12 games against Montreal. It also has an 8-4 edge in these meetings ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five games in this inter-division clash.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-7 SU, 12-6 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (12-6 SU, 5-12-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -6
Total: 49 ½
The Blue Bombers have the benefit of a Week 21 bye heading into their third game against Calgary over the past four weeks. This will be the fourth meeting between these West Division rivals this season with the home team winning each game SU. Winnipeg has the 2-1 edge ATS with the total going OVER in all three games. The Blue Bombers are 5-1 ATS this season when closing as underdogs and they have covered in three of their last five road games.
In the season-ending 29-28 home win against Calgary, Zach Collaros was under center at quarterback in his only start this season due to injury. He completed 22-of-28 passes for 221 yards and two scores. He was also picked off once. Andrew Harris gained another 64 yards running the ball on 15 carries. He ended the regular season as the CFL’s leading rusher with 1,380 yards and four scores on 225 carries.
The Week 20 loss to Winnipeg cost Calgary the West Division title after opening that home-and-home series with a 37-33 victory as a 6 ½-point favorite at home. The Stampeders were 7-2 SU in their last nine games with a costly 2-6-1 record ATS after failing to cover in their last five games. The total stayed UNDER 47 points in Saturday’s win against BC after going OVER in six of their previous 10 outings. Calgary is 2-7 ATS at home this season and a dismal 1-11-1 ATS closing as a favorite.
Bo Levi Mitchell ended the season with 3,464 passing yards and 19 touchdown throws in 11 starts. He completed 66 percent of his 415 passing attempts. He threw for a combined 687 yards and seven touchdowns in those final two games against Winnipeg. Reginald Begelton has been his top target with 102 receptions in 17 games. His 1,444 receiving yards is ranked third in the CFL and his 10 touchdown catches are also tied for the third most in the CFL.
-- Calgary has the slight 6-4 SU edge in the last 10 meetings between these two division foes. This includes a 22-14 SU win in last year’s playoffs as a 7 ½-point home favorite. The series is tied 5-5 ATS with the total going OVER in six of the 10 games.