Boise State vs. Memphis Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 25, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert

Boise State vs. Memphis Predictions

Memphis has the edge in this NIT quarterfinal matchup as a four-point favorite. The total line for Thursday’s 9 p.m. (ET) tip has been set at 143 points.

The Tigers made a strong case for a NCAA Tournament bid as the third-best team in the AAC. Their only two straight-up losses over their last 10 games came against Houston. While Boise State played a tough schedule as well in the Mountain West, I am taking Memphis and laying the four points in this matchup.

The top play on the total line is the UNDER on the 143 points. Look for each team to lean on its defense a bit heavier this Thursday night.

  • Score Prediction: Memphis 73 Boise State 67
  • Best Bets - Side: Memphis -4
  • Best Bets - Total: UNDER 143

NIT Quarterfinals - Predictions

Thursday's Preview - Mar. 25, 2021

Boise State vs. Memphis Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Memphis -4
  • Total: 143
  • Money-Line: Memphis -200 Boise State +175

Odds Subject to Change

Handicapping Boise State vs. Memphis

Memphis has shown some solid consistency in its playing form going back to late-February after an extended pause that month. The Tigers also got a strong effort from their best players in Saturday’s double-digit victory against Dayton in their NIT opener.

This is the type of momentum that could carry this team all the way to the NIT title. The Broncos had their hands full with SMU in their opening round matchup after closing out the season on a SU four-game losing streak.

The close one-point call against the Mustangs does not instill all that much confidence in Thursday’s tilt against a much stronger AAC team.

  • Matchup: 1 vs. 2
  • Venue: UNT Coliseum
  • Location: Denton, Texas
  • Date: Mar. 25, 2021
  • Time-TV: 9:00 p.m. (ET) - ESPN

Betting Stats & Analysis - Boise State Broncos

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

Boise State is 2-3 ATS in its last five games. It was 2-3 SU in five games this season closing as an underdog. It did go 3-1 ATS in four neutral-site contests and 5-2 ATS in its last seven Thursday games.

The total has gone OVER in eight of the Broncos’ last 12 games. It has gone OVER in four of its last six games played in March.

Seed: 2
Conference: Mountain West

  • SU: 19-8
  • ATS: 15-10-1
  • O/U: 15-11
  • Current Form (Last 5): 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U
  • Notable Wins: SMU, Utah State, Colorado State, BYU
  • PS/G: 76.5 (58th)
  • PA/G: 67 (83rd)
  • Off Rtg: 108.5 (57th)
  • Def Rtg: 95 (54th)

The Memphis Tigers are arguably the most talented team remaining in the NIT and they're favored in Thursday's quarterfinal matchup. (AP)

Popular March Madness Tools

Betting Stats & Analysis - Memphis Tigers

Memphis has been able to cover against the spread in its last seven games. It went 17-5 SU this season closing as a favorite. It was 4-3 ATS in seven previous neutral-site games this season.

The total has stayed UNDER in four of the Tigers’ last five games. It has also stayed UNDER in five of their last six games played on a Thursday. The total stayed UNDER in six of their last seven games at a neutral site.

Seed: 1
Conference: AAC

  • SU: 17-8
  • ATS: 15-10
  • O/U: 5-19-1
  • Current Form (Last 5): 3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS, 1-4 O/U
  • Notable Wins: Wichita State, SMU
  • PS/G: 72 (152nd)
  • PA/G: 62.8 (21st)
  • Off Rtg: 99.7 (219th)
  • Def Rtg: 86.8 (3rd)

Key Players to Watch

Guard Landers Nolley II has led the Tigers in scoring all season long with 12.9 points per game. He stepped up the effort in his first NIT game with 21 points along with six rebounds and five assist. Lester Quinones was also instrumental in that win with 15 second-half points.

With all five Broncos’ starters scoring in double figures in their NIT opener, forward Mladen Armus had the hottest hand with 18 points. He completed the double-double with 10 rebounds. Guard Emmanuel Akot went 5-for-8 from three-point range to fuel his 17 points in that game.

  • BSU - Derrick Alston (17.3 PPG)
  • BSU - Abu Kigab (11.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG)
  • MEM - Landers Nolley (12.9 PPG, 4 RPG)
  • MEM - Boogie Ellis (9.9 PPG)

2021 NIT Tournament Team Results

Memphis closed as a 5.5-point favorite in Saturday’s 71-60 victory against Dayton. The total in that game stayed UNDER 137.5 points. The Broncos outgunned SMU 85-84 as slight one-point underdogs in the opening round. That total easily went OVER the closing 145-point line.