Mississippi State vs. Richmond Predictions, Odds, Preview

Mar. 23, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert

Thursday’s Quarterfinal Round of this year’s NIT opens with this matchup and on Wednesday morning, the Circa in Las Vegas sent out Mississippi State as a short favorite (-2) over Richmond.

Richmond could still be without its top two scorers in this game. Blake Francis is dealing with a back injury and Grant Golden has missed playing time with a broken finger. Each player is listed as questionable on the current injury report.

Even if they can go, you could make a strong case to take Mississippi State straight-up. The Bulldogs bring in a head of steam into this matchup with their big opening round upset over St. Louis, which was a top seed.

Recent betting trends for both teams favor the UNDER on the total line. These trends would be magnified if Richmond remains short-handed on offense. The opening total at the Circa was installed at 139.5 points.

Mississippi State vs. Richmond Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Mississippi State 65 Richmond 62
  • Best Bets - Side: Mississippi State
  • Best Bets - Total: Under

NIT Quarterfinals - Predictions

Thursday's Preview - Mar. 25, 2021

Mississippi State vs. Richmond Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Mississippi State -2
  • Total: Mississippi State -125 Richmond +105
  • Money-Line: 139.5

Handicapping Mississippi State vs. Richmond

The Spiders were able to get past Toledo in the opening round of the NIT and there is still enough talent on this roster to advance to the semifinals.

The fact remains that Richmond will still be stepping up in class with this quarterfinal matchup no matter which five players get the start.

The Bulldogs were able to cover against the spread playing Alabama as six-point home underdogs and they beat Kentucky straight-up as four-point underdogs over their final five SEC games.

This is the kind of experience that should serve them well in Thursday’s contest.

  • Matchup: 2 vs. 4
  • Venue: UNT Coliseum
  • Location: Denton, Texas
  • Date: Mar. 25, 2021
  • Time-TV: 6:00 p.m. (ET) - ESPN2

Betting Stats & Analysis - Mississippi State Bulldogs

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games with a SU 4-1 record in their last five games against the Atlantic 10.

They have an even 2-2 record ATS in their last four games played at a neutral site.

The total has stayed UNDER in eight of Mississippi State’s last 12 games. Yet, it has gone OVER in 12 of their last 14 games played on a Thursday.

Seed: 4
Conference: SEC

  • SU: 16-14
  • ATS: 17-13
  • O/U: 15-15
  • Current Form (Last 5): 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U
  • Notable Wins: Missouri, Florida, North Texas
  • PS/G: 69.4 (232)
  • PA/G: 65.7 (59)
  • Off Rtg: 106.3 (104)
  • Def Rtg: 94.7 (50)

Mississippi State, off a victory, has only won back-to-back games once in its last 18 matchups. (AP)

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Betting Stats & Analysis - Richmond Spiders

Richmond has failed to cover ATS in five of its last seven games. Yet, it is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games played in March. It is 2-4 ATS in its last six neutral-site games.

The total has stayed UNDER in the Spiders’ last five games. It has also stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games against a team from the SEC.

The total has gone OVER in four of those six games played at a neutral site.

Seed: 2
Conference: A-10

  • SU: 14-8
  • ATS: 10-10-1
  • O/U: 9-12
  • Current Form (Last 5): 2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, 0-5 O/U
  • Notable Wins: Loyola-Chicago, Kentucky
  • PS/G: 75.6 (71)
  • PA/G: 69.3 (148)
  • Off Rtg: 110.5 (47)
  • Def Rtg: 97.5 (93)

Key Players to Watch

Mississippi State

The duo of guards’ DJ Stewart Jr. and Iverson Molinar accounted for the bulk of Mississippi State’s scoring in the win against St. Louis with a combined 39 points.

They also combined for seven rebounds and eight assists. Stewart was 3-for-4 from three-point range.

  • MSST - DJ Stewart Jr. (16 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.0 APG)
  • MSST - Iverson Molinar (16.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG)


Guard Jacob Gilyard and forward Tyler Burton picked up the scoring slack against Toledo last Wednesday with 18 points each.

Burton posted the double-double with 11 rebounds. Forward Nathan Cayo added another 15 points to the winning cause.

  • RICH - Jacob Gilyard (11.9 PPG, 5.0 APG)
  • RICH - Tyler Burton (12.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG)

2021 NIT Tournament Team Results

Mississippi State stopped Saint Louis 74-68 as a 4.5-point underdog and a combined 83 points in the second-half helped 'over' (134) bettors connect.

Richmond defeated Toledo 76-66 as an underdog (+4.5) while the combined 142 points went well 'under' the closing total of 151.5.