Last Updated Mar 19, 2022, 7:32 PM

Richmond Spiders vs. Providence Friars Picks, Predictions, Odds

Saturday’s first matchup in the Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament pits the Atlantic 10’s Richmond Spiders against the Big East’s Providence Friars. Tip-off on TNT is set for 6:10 p.m. (ET) at KeyBank Center in Buffalo.

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Score Prediction

Providence 64, Richmond 62

Best Bet

Under 134.5 (-110)

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MARCH MADNESS BETTING RESOURCES

RICHMOND SPIDERS vs. PROVIDENCE FRIARS PREDICTIONS

The Spiders were the first big bracket busters of this year’s Big Dance with a stunning four-point upset over No. 5 Iowa as 9.5-point underdogs. This followed an impressive four-game run to the A-10 Conference Tournament Championship. Richmond beat Davidson by two points as a 3.5-point underdog to claim that title.

Providence kept things interesting in its opening round victory against No. 13 South Dakota State with a nine-point win that was closer than the score indicated. The Friars closed as 2.5-point favorites in that game. Their run in the recent Big East Tournament came to a sudden end with a surprising 27-point loss to Creighton as three-point favorites.

Each of these teams have been grinding out wins behind elevated play on defense. Richmond has not allowed more than 64 points in any of its last five games. Providence put the clamps on the Jackrabbits when it needed to the most. I am not big on betting against Richmond in Saturday’s contest but I do like the betting value in the UNDER on the total line.

RICHMOND SPIDERS vs. PROVIDENCE FRIARS BETTING ODDS

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RICHMOND SPIDERS vs. PROVIDENCE FRIARS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Saturday, March 19, 2022
  • Matchup: No. 12 vs. No. 4
  • Region: Midwest
  • Venue: KeyBank Center
  • Location: Buffalo, New York
  • TV-Time: TNT - 6:10 p.m. ET

RICHMOND SPIDERS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 24-12
  • ATS: 17-18-1
  • O/U: 15-21

Richmond’s current straight-up winning streak stands at five games and it has covered against the spread in each of its last four outings closing as an underdog. The total stayed UNDER 150.5 points in the 67-63 win against Iowa and it has stayed UNDER in six of the Spiders’ last eight games.

With an overall SU record of 24-12, Richmond posted a mixed 17-18-1 record ATS. The Spiders went 6-5 ATS this season closing as underdogs and they posted a 5-4 mark against the closing number in nine games played at a neutral site. The total has stayed UNDER in 21 of the team’s 36 games this season.

Thursday’s game was tight from the start and Richmond took a slight 29-28 lead into halftime. Behind a stout defensive effort, the Spiders held Iowa to 35 points over the final 20 minutes of play. This is the same Iowa team that knocked off Purdue 75-66 to win the Big Ten Tournament less than a week ago.

The Spiders’ biggest strength is veteran leadership with nine seniors on the 20-player roster. Jacob Gilyard came up big against Iowa with 24 points and Tyler Burton posted a double-double with 18 points and 11 rebounds. Richmond shot 42.1% from the field and only hit five of its 17 attempts from three-point range. The team did go 87.5% from the free throw line.

PROVIDENCE FRIARS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 26-5
  • ATS: 18-13
  • O/U: 16-15

The Friars easily covered the 2.5 points in Thursday’s win but they came into that game with a 3-5 record ATS in their previous eight games. The total stayed UNDER 148 points in the 66-57 victory and it has stayed UNDER in three of their last five games. Providence has not scored more than 72 points in each of its last three SU wins.

With an overall SU record of 26-5, the Friars won the Big East regular season title by going 14-3 in conference play. They were 18-13 ATS overall and 10-11 ATS in 21 games closing as favorites. They are 2-3 ATS in neutral-site matchups this season.

Thursday’s win snapped South Dakota State’s SU 21-game winning streak on a team that was much better than its No. 13 seeding in the Midwest Region. Providence now has to face a No. 12 seed that much better than advertised. The key to moving on to the Sweet 16 could hinge on another strong effort by Al Durham. He posted 13 points with eight rebounds and six assists in his last outing.

The Friars shot 39.3% from the field and 36.4% from three-point range in the opening round. They converted on 10-of-12 attempts from the foul line. One key stat from that game was under the boards with the 41-32 edge in rebounds. Providence ended the game with 11 rebounds on offense.

Richmond has won 1H in 10 of its last 12 games when playing on a neutral court at night. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - RICHMOND SPIDERS

  • Record: 24-12
  • PS/G: 71.6 (159th)
  • PA/G: 68.1 (149th)

INSIDE THE STATS - PROVIDENCE FRIARS

  • Record: 26-5
  • PS/G: 71.6 (158th)
  • PA/G: 66.7 (104th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • RICH: Tyler Burton - F (16.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg)
  • RICH: Grant Golden - F (13.8 ppg, 6.1 rpg)
  • PROV: Nate Watson - C (13.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg)
  • PROV: Aljami Durham - G (13.3 ppg)

RICHMOND SPIDERS vs. PROVIDENCE FRIARS BETTING CONCLUSION

Providence should win this game SU but I am not convinced it will. Richmond is obviously playing with a high level of confidence and the proven ability to beat a quality team. I am banking on defense staying stout for both teams in a lower scoring affair than the current total line suggests.

MARCH MADNESS PICK RESOURCES

RICHMOND SPIDERS vs. PROVIDENCE FRIARS BETTING TRENDS

  • Richmond has won 1H in 10 of its last 12 games when playing on a neutral court at night.
  • Richmond has seen a total of 139 or more points scored in eight of its last nine games when playing on a neutral court at night.
  • Providence has won 10 straight games when playing on a Saturday.
  • Richmond has won five straight games.
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