2026 Big-12 Football Betting Preview: Winners, Losers, and the Bet You Need to Know

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

Updated on 8/21/26

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The Big-12 remains as wide open and unpredictable as ever, but a few storylines stand out above the rest heading into 2026 — a proven quarterback chasing a title, a trendy pick due for a reality check, and a breakout candidate flying completely under the radar. Here's the full breakdown.

Be sure to check out our Big Ten Preview as well as our ACC Preview.

The Conference Champion: Houston over Texas Tech

Connor Weigman is back, and that alone makes Houston the team to beat in the Big-12. A year ago, Weigman threw for 25 touchdowns and added 11 more on the ground, and he's not walking into a rebuild — Houston returns 12 total starters from that squad. The transfer portal class isn't going to turn heads, but it doesn't need to when this much production and continuity is already in the building.

The schedule sets up well too. Houston's toughest tests on paper are Texas Tech and Utah, meaning there's a clear path to entering the Big-12 Championship as one of the favorites — and with Weigman under center, that's exactly where they land.

Texas Tech will make it a fight. After the Brendan Sorsby situation didn't pan out the way they hoped, the Red Raiders have turned to Will Hammond as the new starting quarterback. Defensively, they went back to the transfer portal to replace their entire defensive line while keeping their secondary intact — an aggressive approach that should keep this defense competitive. Texas Tech has the pieces to be one of the best teams in the conference, but in a rematch with Houston for the title, they come up just short.

The Underrated Team: Oklahoma State

Think back to what North Texas looked like in 2025, then picture that same identity dropped into the Big 12 — that's Oklahoma State this season. Drew Mestemaker is the headliner, and had he been playing for a Power 4 program a year ago, he likely would have found himself in the Heisman conversation. Now he gets that stage, and he has a chance to take the league by storm.

The roster around him backs up the hype. Oklahoma State brings in the second-best transfer class in the entire Big 12, trailing only Texas Tech. The schedule won't be easy, but with this level of quarterback play and roster investment, this is a team with more than enough talent to punch its way into a bowl game — and potentially do a lot more than that.

The Overrated Team: BYU

BYU's 2025 season looked a lot better on paper than it did on the field. Their only two real losses came against Texas Tech, and outside of that, they were arguably the luckiest team in college football — narrow wins over Utah and Arizona in games they had no business winning by any reasonable measure.

The problems compound from here. BYU loses its defensive coordinator to Michigan, a significant blow to a unit that will need to replace both scheme continuity and leadership. The wide receiver room doesn't inspire much confidence either. Put it all together, and it's hard to justify BYU being talked about as one of the favorites to win the conference this season.

Best Bet: Colorado Under 4.5 Wins

The Deion Sanders era in Boulder feels like it's running out of steam. Colorado is staring down the fifth-most difficult schedule in the Big-12 this season, and there isn't much reason for confidence in Julian Lewis taking the reins under center. Nothing from Sanders' tenure so far suggests this defense is about to take a leap forward, and the offensive line remains a legitimate liability.

Tough schedule, shaky quarterback situation, unproven defense, and known trench issues — it's a combination that points toward Colorado struggling to find four wins, let alone clear the number. The under on 4.5 wins is this season's best value play in the Big-12.

Houston looks like the class of the Big 12 with Weigman leading the way, but Oklahoma State's breakout potential, BYU's shaky foundation, and Colorado's rough outlook make this a conference worth watching closely all season.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson