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Last Updated Sep 29, 2021, 03:00 AM

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Miami-Florida Hurricanes Predictions, Odds, Picks

Sept. 30, 2021
Eytan Shander
VI College Football Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Virginia Cavaliers travel to Miami Gardens, Florida to take on the Miami-Florida Hurricanes in an ACC battle. Both teams will try to get their seasons back on track Thursday night, as the 'must-win' game will air on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET from the Hard Rock Stadium.

Score Prediction: Virginia 38, Miami(FL) 33

Best Bet: Over 61.5

Best Bet: Virginia +3 1H

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Miami-Florida Hurricanes Predictions

One of these teams is going to dictate the tempo and pacing of this football game in Miami. The Canes are struggling, mightily this season, but have found success on the ground. Their pass defense is far from good, taking on a UVA team that throws, throws, and throws some more. The game will come down to which team has their way, be it Miami comfortably running the football or Virginia throwing for 500+ yards in a win.

Virginia throws for days, their QB Brennan Armstrong has torched defenses in the air to the tune of back-to-back 400-yard games in the air. Miami can’t stop anyone in the air and will have a ridiculous time trying to slow down Armstrong. The Canes can run. As bad as the offense looked so far, they are successful when going over 100-yards on the ground.

The Cavs are almost as bad defending the rush as the Canes are stopping the pass. While the Canes will look improved against this bad Cavs defense, Armstrong will prove too much for Miami. Virginia will get the outright road victory only because they will have the ball last.

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Virginia Cavaliers vs. Miami-Florida Hurricanes Betting Odds

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Miami is a 5-point home favorite against visiting Virginia. The Canes are 1-3 ATS this season while the Cavs are 2-2 ATS.



The total for this game is 62. Both teams enter the game with the U 3-1 so far for each team.



Virginia Cavaliers vs. Miami-Florida Hurricanes Betting Resources

  • Matchup: ACC
  • Date: Thursday, September 30, 2021
  • Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
  • Location: Miami Gardens, Florida
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 7:30 p.m. ET



Virginia Cavaliers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-2
  • ATS: 2-2
  • O/U: 1-3
  • ATS - Home: 2-1
  • ATS - Away: 0-1

Virginia may have a tough time protecting Armstrong against Miami’s front, but make no mistake, this won’t be the determining factor in the game. The Cavs offense will adjust ahead of time, allowing for Armstrong to get the ball out a little faster. Both teams can get some deep gains in the air, but Virginia’s offense is far less prone to turn over the ball. That’s a huge difference maker come Thursday night in Miami, how fast the home team will hand over the football to UVA.

Miami-Florida Hurricanes Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-2
  • ATS: 1-3
  • O/U: 1-3
  • ATS - Home: 1-3
  • ATS - Away: 0-0

Miami’s passing offense isn’t as bad as we’ve seen, but they are so susceptible to giving up big plays in the air. It’s just the worst matchup right now for Miami as they try and stabilize their season. The problem with the Canes rushing attack is it just isn’t consistent enough. While they crushed teams on the ground in their two wins, they gave up too much in their losses. The imbalance on Miami’s offense will ultimately mean their demise against Virginia.

Inside the Stats - Virginia Cavaliers

  • Record: 2-2
  • VI Ranking: 56
  • Points Scored: 141
  • Points Allowed: 110
  • PS/G: 35.2 (39th)
  • PA/G: 27.5 (87th)

Inside the Stats - Miami-Florida Hurricanes

  • Record: 2-2
  • VI Ranking: 36
  • Points Scored: 124
  • Points Allowed: 105
  • PS/G: 31 (59th)
  • PA/G: 26.2 (83rd)

Key Players to Watch

  • UVA: Brennan Armstrong - QB (120/180, 1,705 yards, 13 TD, 3 INT)
  • UVA: Dontayvion Wicks - WR (22 catches, 460 yards, 4 TD)
  • MIAF: D'Eriq King - QB (81/122, 767 yards, 3 TD, 4 INT)
  • MIAF: Cam'ron Harris (51 carries, 272 yards, 3 TD)

Injuries

  • UVA: Lavel Davis - WR (Knee-Out)
  • UVA: Nathaniel Beal III - WR (ACL-Out)
  • UVA: Jelani Woods - FB (Leg-Questionable)
  • UVA: Wayne Taulapapa - RB (Concussion-Probable)
  • MIAF: D'Eriq King - QB (Shoulder-Questionable)
  • MIAF: Donald Chaney, Jr. - RB (Knee-Out)
  • MIAF: Jalen Rivers - OL (Knee-Out)
  • MIAF: Jaylan Knighton - RB (Suspension-Probable)
  • MIAF: Kai-Leon Herbert - OL (Left Team-Out)
  • MIAF: Amari Carter - S (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • MIAF: Gurvan Hall, Jr. - S (Suspension-Probable
  • MIAF: Keontra Smith S (Lower Body-Out)
  • MIAF: Corey Gaynor - OL (Undisclosed-Questionable)

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Miami-Florida Hurricanes Betting Conclusion

UVA didn’t exactly pull their own weight last weekend against Wake Forest, and people may jump off the total as a result, or at least go under. The mistake here is that Miami has some playmakers and shouldn’t be sold short on their means of breaking a couple of runs. The U is 3-1 ATS for both teams but mainly because of high numbers to hit. The relaxed total here at 62 is more than gettable for a high-powered Virginia passing attack, with a little help from Miami.

Virginia Cavaliers vs. Miami-Florida Hurricanes Betting Trends

  • Miami-Florida has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven home games.
  • Miami-Florida has lost four of its last six home games.
  • Miami-Florida has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six home games when facing Virginia.
  • Virginia has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games.
  • Virginia has gone UNDER the point total in four of its last five games.


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