College Football Predictions, Picks: Week 11 Best Bets for Texas vs. LSU, USC vs. Indiana, More
The race to the college football playoffs heats up in week 11 with major showdowns in the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12. Here are my predictions and best bets for this weeks' college football action.
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College Football Picks, Predictions
Below you will find picks from the biggest games that our expert Dylan Wilkerson has made for college football week 11. You can follow all of his wagers on the Action App by clicking here.
Updated on 11/13/26
Missouri vs. Georgia Pick
I really doubt Missouri's ability to move the ball down the field against this Georgia defense that ranks 21st in overall defensive success rate. The Missouri offense ranks 112th in offensive success rate, with a specific weakness in the run game.
On the other hand, Missouri's defense is pretty strong. They should be able to slow down a Georgia offense that has played slow, running 65.4 offensive snaps per game. This should be a low-scoring SEC affair.
Georgia vs. Missouri Prediction: Missouri Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs u47.5 (-115)
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Pick
Oklahoma State's offense is going to be too strong to handle in this matchup. I also think it says a lot that the 25th-ranked team in the country is favored against the 12th-ranked team.
Oklahoma State ranks 4th in offensive success rate, 7th in passing success rate, and 15th in rushing success rate. Texas Tech's defense has a weakness against the pass, ranking 67th in EPA per pass allowed.
Oklahoma State's efficient offense should lead them to a victory in this Big 12 showdown.
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Prediction: Oklahoma State Cowboys -3.5 (-105)
Texas vs. LSU Pick
There is a reason why LSU is favored. Offensively, LSU outclasses Texas in EPA/play, offensive success rate, and plenty of other offensive metrics.
You can argue that these defenses are strong and likely cancel each other out, but the difference on the offensive side of the ball is staggering. LSU should win this matchup handily.
Texas vs. LSU Prediction: LSU Tigers -3.5 (-120)
Utah vs. Arizona Pick
Utah's win against BYU last week solidified Utah's case as a top dog in the Big 12. This week, Utah will solidify themselves as a national title contender with a win against Arizona.
Utah ranks 13th in net adjusted EPA/play, which is a metric that adjusts for strength of schedule. Arizona ranks 30th in the same metric. Utah also has a stronger rush attack than Arizona, and there is a pronounced difference on the defensive side of the ball, which favors Utah.
Utah vs. Arizona Prediction: Utah Utes Moneyline (-133)
USC vs. Indiana Pick
Indiana's offense gets a bad rap, but they do rank 32nd in passing success rate and 16th in EPA per pass attempt. They will also be facing off against a pass defense that ranks 110th in EPA per pass attempt allowed and 100th in overall defensive success rate.
There is no need to question this Indiana defense, which has been a strong point of the team this season. Indiana should take care of USC and jump right back up in the College Football Playoff rankings.
USC vs. Indiana Prediction: Indiana Hoosiers -8.5 (-110)
Duke vs. Miami Pick
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You can make a lot of cases for Duke in this matchup. Miami's defense has holes that it did not have last season, namely against the pass, where they rank 113th in EPA per pass allowed.
Duke's offense also ranks in the 85th percentile for explosive-play rate, beating out Miami's 74th-percentile ranking for the same metric. Miami's defense is in the 36th percentile in overall EPA allowed and the 48th percentile in success rate allowed. Duke has a clear advantage defensively.
Miami is on upset watch against this ACC adversary.
Duke vs. Miami Prediction: Duke Blue Devils +13.5 (-108)
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Pick
Cincinnati has a clear advantage offensively, where they rank 34th in offensive success rate compared to ISU ranking 84th. Both of these defenses are extremely poor, but Cincinnati is better equipped to take advantage of the opposing defensive weakness.
Cincinnati's net adjusted EPA/play ranks 45th, whereas ISU ranks 64th, and yet Cincinnati is the underdog. I will take Cincinnati in this Big 12 matchup.
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Prediction: Cincinnati Bearcats +3 (-110)
Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina Pick
Arkansas State's offense is the strongest unit in this matchup. They rank 50th in EPA/pass, with a particular strength on early-down EPA/play, where they rank 32nd. Arkansas State does a great job staying ahead of the sticks, and they will face this 92nd-ranked Coastal Carolina defense.
Arkansas State's offensive success rate also ranks 31st, with a strength in the passing game, and this should be enough to take down Coastal Carolina.
Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolnia Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves Moneyline (+100)
Kansas State vs. TCU Pick
Both of these defenses rank in the top 50 in terms of defensive success rate. Kansas State ranks 115th in offensive success rate, and both teams have played at a normal to slow pace, with TCU averaging 70.3 average offensive snaps per game and Kansas State averaging 73.8 offensive snaps per game.
This is going to be a low-scoring affair.
Kansas State vs. TCU Prediction: Kansas State Wildcats @ TCU Horned Frogs u44.5 (-108)
FIU vs. Delaware Pick
I am not sure why Delaware is favored here. FIU ranks 88th in net adjusted EPA/play, whereas Delaware ranks 111th.
FIU has an extremely strong defense for a G6 team, ranking 45th in overall defensive success rate, with a particular strength against the rush. FIU's defense is also strong on late downs, ranking 28th in late-down success allowed.
This FIU defense should be able to stifle the Delaware offensive attack and keep this game within 4 points.
FIU vs. Delaware Prediction: Florida International Panthers +4 (-110)
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M Pick
Tennessee's defense is going to be too tough to handle in this one. They rank 9th in EPA per pass allowed and 10th in late-down success rate allowed. Offensively, they have a strong rush attack, ranking 3rd in EPA/rush.
Tennessee is also great at preventing explosive plays. They rank in the 98th percentile in explosives allowed and the 97th percentile in havoc created by their front 7. Jim Knowles has this defense rolling, and I do not expect that to stop this week.
Tennessee vs. Texas A&M Prediction: Tennessee Volunteers Moneyline (-135)
Baylor vs. BYU Pick
Baylor's defense should be able to keep them in this game. And If it weren't for a few trick plays from BYU last week, their game could have looked way worse.
Bear Bachmeier threw 4 INTs against Utah last week, and this Baylor defense is going to be even more daunting than the Utah defense.
Baylor ranks 30th in net adjusted EPA/play, whereas BYU ranks 17th, so the gap is not nearly as big as most people would think. Baylor should keep this game close.
Baylor vs. BYU Prediction: Baylor Bears +7.5 (-112)
Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma Pick
Both of these teams' seasons are effectively over, but Oklahoma has the makeup to take down Ole Miss. Their defense has been strong enough to take down teams such as Texas and Florida, and I think Ole Miss gets added to that list this week.
Oklahoma's defense ranks 3rd in defensive success rate allowed, 2nd in late-down success rate allowed, and 8th in rushing success rate allowed. Oklahoma can cause enough chaos with their defense to pull off the win.
Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss Prediction: Oklahoma Sooners Moneyline (-115)
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