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Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers Predictions, Odds, Picks

 
Oct. 14, 2021
Stuart Durst
VI American Football Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Navy Midshipmen head to Memphis, Tennessee to take on the hosting Tigers this week. The AAC action will take place on Thursday, October 14th at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN from Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium.

Score Prediction: Memphis 38, Navy 20

Best Bet: Over

Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers Predictions

While Memphis opened as a 8-point favorite on most sportsbooks, the number has already been pushed to -10.5. Navy has started this season with a disappointing 1-4 record, but is looking to turn things around this week. Memphis was off to a fairly good start, but a surprising comeback loss to Temple really slowed down the momentum.

Memphis has gone over the game total in every game so far this season, and Navy has done it in three of five. Navy’s misses were in the Armed Service Game against Air Force, which is always low scoring, and against a fairly tough Houston offense. Navy doesn't have the most explosive offense in the world, but I expect them to be able to take advantage of a Memphis defense that allowed Temple to score 35 points just two weeks ago.

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Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers Betting Odds

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Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AAC
  • Date: Thursday, October 14, 2021
  • Venue: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
  • Location: Memphis, Tennessee
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 7:30 p.m. ET


Navy Midshipmen Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 1-4
  • ATS: 3-2
  • O/U: 3-2
  • ATS - Home: 2-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-0

It's been a pretty interesting season for Navy. If you told me they were 1-4 coming into this season but their one win was over UCF I would probably call you crazy. While context for the UCF injuries is important, it's hard to ignore what Navy has done the last couple weeks. They lost a game game to a good Houston team, beat UCF, then narrowly lost to a ranked SMU team.

So far this season, Navy has had three separate QB’s attempt a pass for a total of 313 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. They have also had four different players have at least 45 rushing attempts, with a strong group of backs including Isacc Ruoss and James Harris II. Like I said before, everyone in the world knows this Navy team is run first. Run first may even be an understatement, they are run or bust.

Memphis Tigers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-3
  • ATS: 2-4
  • O/U: 3-3
  • ATS - Home: 2-1
  • ATS - Away: 0-3

It has truly been an up-and-down season for the Memphis Tigers. They started the season 2-0 with good wins against Nicholls State and Arkansas State. They followed that up with a huge non-conference win against Mississippi State, something that should have lit a spark in this program.

Unfortunately, they followed that up with a close loss to UTSA. After that loss they are sitting at 3-1 and should be able to make quick work of a team like Temple ,but instead got off to a great start before allowing a comeback and lost the game. After that, they were unable to turn things around and faced another loss to Tusla - which is three straight losses. Navy is coming into this game looking pretty solid against some tough teams, it will be interesting to see how Memphis responds.

A key to this game will be limiting points and winning the turnover battle. In their losses this season, Memphis has allowed 31, 34, and 35 points and that's a hard total to match. Everybody in the country knows how Navy wants to play this game and if they can just stay out in front and not turn over the ball, they should be able to take care of business. I wanted to bet them on the spread, but 10.5 just feels a little too large considering they are 2-4 against the spread this season.


The Memphis Tigers have failed to cover the spread in four straight games when playing in October. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Navy Midshipmen

  • Record: 1-4
  • VI Ranking: 103
  • Points Scored: 88
  • Points Allowed: 161
  • PS/G: 17.6 (121st)
  • PA/G: 32.2 (106th)

Inside the Stats - Memphis Tigers

  • Record: 3-3
  • VI Ranking: 81
  • Points Scored: 200
  • Points Allowed: 81
  • PS/G: 40 (11th)
  • PA/G: 16.2 (16th)

Key Players to Watch

  • NAVY: Isaac Ruoss - RB (61 carries, 233 yards, 2 TD)
  • NAVY: Tai Lavatai - QB (61 carries, 233 yards, 2 TD)
  • MEM: Seth Henigan - QB (130/215, 1,938 yards, 14 TD, 3 INT)
  • MEM: Calvin Austin III - WR (48 catches, 837 yards, 8 TD)

Injuries

  • MEM: Kylan Watkins - RB (Leg-Questionable)
  • MEM: Grant Gunnell - QB (Leg-Out)
  • MEM: CamRon Jackson - DL (Undisclosed-Questionable)
  • NAVY: Mitchell West - S (Leg-Questionable)
  • NAVY: Jake Cossavella - OL (Undisclosed-Questionable)

Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers Betting Conclusion

Overall, I'm impressed with their recent performance but worried this game script might get out of hand. They aren't a great team at coming from behind, and Memphis is known for getting out to hot starts this season. There is a very real possibility that Navy is better than people are giving them credit for, but I think OVER is the value bet in this game.

Navy Midshipmen vs. Memphis Tigers Betting Trends

  • Memphis has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
  • Memphis has won 17 of its last 18 home games.
  • Memphis has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last 10 games.
  • Navy has covered the spread in 10 of its last 15 road games.
  • Navy has won five of its last six games when facing Memphis.

  
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