Last Updated Sep 30, 2022, 7:26 PM

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos Picks, Predictions, Odds

Two offensively challenged teams will meet on Friday night when the Boise State Broncos host the San Diego State Aztecs. This game will be played on September 30, 2022, at 8 p.m. ET on FS1 from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho.

SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS vs. BOISE STATE BRONCOS BETTING PREDICTION

It’s pretty rare to see a college football game with a total under 40, but both the Boise State Broncos and San Diego State Aztecs have strong defenses and terrible offenses. Boise State is ranked 105th in Offensive SP+, while San Diego State is ranked 118th in Offensive SP+. Both teams are 2-2, but the Broncos are in disarray after head coach Andy Avalos fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough on Saturday. That makes San Diego State the play as a moderate underdog, and the under is worth a long look too.

Score Prediction: Boise State 20, San Diego State 17
Best Bet: San Diego State +6 (-110)

SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS vs. BOISE STATE BRONCOS BETTING ODDS

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SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS vs. BOISE STATE BRONCOS BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Friday, Sept. 30, 2022
Matchup: Mountain West
Venue: Albertsons Stadium
Location: Boise, Idaho
Time-TV: FS1, 8:00 p.m. ET
Expert Picks

SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS BETTING ANALYSIS

The San Diego State Aztecs might have the worst offense in the country. They are averaging just 3.9 yards per play, and their passing game is nonexistent. Three different players have thrown a pass for the Aztecs, but former Oregon and Virginia Tech signal caller Braxton Burmeister will likely be the starter on Friday night.

Burmeister is completing just 53.1% of his passes for a putrid 3.6 YPA with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He hasn’t completed a pass longer than 16 yards, but he is still a better option than his colleagues. Kyle Crum and William Haskell have combined to complete just 8 of 23 passes for 65 yards this season. Burmeister is the third leading rusher on the team with 149 yards and is averaging 5.3 YPC.

San Diego State has had a decent amount of success moving the ball on the ground considering this offense is one-dimensional. The Aztecs are averaging 5.8 YPC, and they have four players with at least 20 carries. Jordan Byrd leads the way with 224 yards on 7.7 YPC, while Jaylon Armstead is averaging 10.6 YPC since he has one run of at least 10 yards in every game to this point.

The Aztecs didn’t have much success stopping Arizona or Utah. However, they completely held Idaho State in check and forced four turnovers against Toledo in their last game. They should be able to stop Boise State’s one-dimensional attack this week, turning this into a defensive slugfest.

San Diego State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against Boise State. (Getty Images)

BOISE STATE BRONCOS BETTING ANALYSIS

The Broncos didn’t just lose their offensive coordinator this week when Avalos relieved Plough of his duties. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier announced that he would be transferring in wake of the move, remaining eligible for two more seasons by not playing in a fifth game. Bachmeier has been the starter for the Broncos since 2019, but he has really struggled this season, and he was awful in last Friday’s loss to UTEP.

Freshman Taylen Green will be the Broncos’ new quarterback, and former Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ head coach Dirk Koetter will be Boise State’s interim OC. Green completed 19 of 28 passes for 155 yards with an interception in the season opener against Oregon State. That is his lone game of experience prior to this start, but he has proven to be a dangerous runner. He is 6’6 and ran the ball 11 times for 102 yards and two touchdowns against the Beavers last month. Look for Koetter to have Green run a lot of RPOs with Green using his size to try and run over opponents.

George Holani is averaging 3.6 YPC as the primary runner, and freshman Ashton Jeanty is a little more explosive as his backup. This offense has done a poor job of moving the ball, as the Broncos are averaging just 4.3 yards per play, and they are only picking up 30% of their third down conversions.

Avalos was a star linebacker during his time at Boise State, so it’s not a surprise that the other side of the ball is fine. The Broncos are allowing just 3.4 YPC, and they rank 21st nationally in total defense. They have done a good job getting after the quarterback too with a sack rate of 10%.

BOISE STATE BRONCOS VS. SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS BETTING TRENDS

  • San Diego State is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games.
  • Boise State is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games.
  • San Diego State is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Boise State's last 11 games.
  • San Diego State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against Boise State.
  • San Diego State is 4-2 SU in its last six games against Boise State.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of Boise State's last six home games.
  • San Diego State is 5-1 SU in its last six road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last six matchups between Boise State and San Diego State.
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