College Football Week 12 Best Bets: Bets For Early-Week MACtion

College Football Week 12 Best Bets: Bets For Early-Week MACtion

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We blink, and college football week 12 is already here. I have compiled my best bets for midweek MACtion and early Saturday best bets. I will be adding to this list as the week goes so add us as a preferred source to get notifications on any new publications!

Click any of the links attached to the best bet to place the bet instantly.

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First things first: to make the most of college football saturday, you want to make sure you are getting the best line and taking advantage of the best sportsbook promos. Our college football odds page has odds for every game and every major sportsbook. We also have plenty of offers for users to take advantage of, below.

KENT STATE VS. AKRON BEST BET

KENT @ AKR Odds

Kent State is one of the slowest offenses in college football. They average 61.4 offensive snaps per game and 57 plays per game. This ranks them 135th in offensive pace.

Akron is in the 6th percentile for offensive explosiveness. When combined with Kent State's slow pace of play, it's a recipe for a low-scoring affair for Tuesday MACtion.

Bet: Kent State Golden Flashes @ Akron Zips u46.5 (-105)

TOLEDO VS. MIAMI (OH) BEST BET

TOL @ M-OH Odds

The standout unit here is Toledo's defense. They rank 4th in defensive success, and they are particularly strong against the pass (ranked 2nd). They are top 10 in early-downs EPA/play allowed and 8th in third-down success rate allowed. All great marks for a MAC team.

Miami's strength is in the passing game, which just so happens to be the strength of Toledo's defense. Toledo should take down Miami in this MAC matchup.

Bet: Toledo Rockets -3.5 (-105)

BUFFALO VS. CENTRAL MICHIGAN BEST BET

BUFF @ CMU Odds

Although Buffalo is not a huge underdog here, I do believe the wrong team is favored in this MACtion matchup. Both of these teams have comparable schedules, but Buffalo's defense has CMU's offense outclassed in a major fashion.

Buffalo's defensive success rate ranks 24th in college football, presenting an advantageous matchup for them.

Bet: Buffalo Bulls +2.5 (-110)

CLEMSON VS. LOUISVILLE BEST BET

CLEM @ LOU Odds

Both of these defenses are tough. Clemson ranks 22nd in defensive success rate allowed, while Louisville has a slight edge ranking 21st. Both teams' defenses are stellar on late downs, preventing conversions late in drives. Both paces are average, but these teams' respective defensive prowess will keep this a low-scoring ACC matchup.

Bet: Clemson Tigers @ Louisville Cardinals u51.5 (-110)

EASTERN MICHIGAN VS. BALL STATE BEST BET

EMU @ BALL Odds

EMU's defense and Ball State's offense come out to a wash - they are both poor. However, EMU gains the advantage on the offensive side of the ball. EMU ranks top 50 in both EPA/pass and EPA/rush, where Ball State's defense ranks 93rd and 88th, respectively.

EMU's offense ranks 29th in late-down success and 47th in early-downs EPA/play, providing a huge advantage for them in this matchup.

Bet: Eastern Michigan Eagles -2.5 (-110)

NORTHWESTERN VS. MICHIGAN BEST BET

MICH @ NW Odds

This feels like too many points for a Michigan team that has looked worse and worse as the season has gone on. Bryce Underwood has not thrown for 200+ yards since 10/18 against Washington and has just above a 60% completion rate on the season. There is no doubt that Michigan's defense is strong, but I am not sure their offense can score enough to beat out this spread.

Bet: Northwestern Wildcats +12.5 (-110)

SOUTH FLORIDA VS. NAVY BEST BET

USF @ NAVY Odds

This total seems way too high for two teams that keep a low offensive pace. USF averages 73.8 offensive snaps per game, while Navy averages 65 offensive snaps per game. Although USF has a reputation of playing fast and airing the ball out, their defense has stepped up in a major way this season.

USF ranks 36th in defensive success rate, which is a far cry from the USF we used to know. This game will be lower scoring than we are used to with the South Florida Bulls.

Best Bet: South Florida Bulls @ Navy Midshipmen u65.5 (-115)

KANSAS STATE VS. OKLAHOMA STATE BEST BET

KSU @ OKST Odds

Kansas State has Oklahoma State completely outclassed. Oklahoma State is 116th in defensive success rate, 128th in offensive success rate, and 135th in net EPA/play. Kansas State's defense has been pretty strong, ranking 16th in defensive success rate. Without a discrepancy in strength of schedule, this spread just seems too small for this matchup.

Best Bet: Kansas State Wildcats -19.5 (-108)

AIR FORCE VS. UCONN BEST BET

AFA @ UCONN Odds

These are two really bad defenses. UConn has a defensive success rate that ranks 120th in the nation, while Air Force ranks 135th. Conversely, the Air Force's offense is extremely stout. They rank seventh and EPA per pass attempt and 17th and EPA per rush attempt. UConn also has a very strong offense ranking, 6th and EPA pass while being particularly strong on early downs ranking 21st and early downs EPA/PLAY. I think this is going to be a very high-scoring matchup and I could see it sailing over the total of 63.5.

Best Bet: Air Force Falcons @ UConn Huskies o63.5 (-108)

ARKANSAS VS. LSU BEST BET

ARK @ LSU Odds

Both of these teams have average pace numbers. The Arkansas Razorbacks are averaging 69.4 offensive snaps per game, and the LSU Tigers are averaging 68.7.

LSU's defense is extremely stout. They are ranked 29th in defensive success rate, 39th in defensive pass success rate, and 26th in defensive rush success rate. Their offense has performed poorly this season, ranking 113th in offensive success rate. They are specifically poor in the running game, where they rank 132nd in offensive success rate.

I do not see how LSU's offense gets anything going in this game, and I think their defense will be able to shut down this Arkansas offense. I think this will be a low-scoring SEC affair.

Best Bet: Arkansas Razorbacks @ LSU Tigers u56.5 (-110)

OREGON STATE VS. TULSA BEST BET

ORST @ TLSA Odds

Oregon State has Tulsa outclassed statistically in almost all areas of the game. Sometimes, this can be accounted for if one team has played a tougher schedule than the other. However, Oregon State has played the 60th-rated strength of schedule, while Tulsa has 101st-rated strength of schedule. Oregon State's offense ranks out pretty average compared to the rest of college football. However, their defense ranks 28th in defensive success rate. Oregon State wins this game outright.

Best Bet: Oregon State Beavers +0.5 (-115)

OKLAHOMA VS. ALABAMA BEST BET

OU @ BAMA Odds

If you love defense, then boy is this the matchup for you. Oklahoma has the top-rated defense in terms of defensive success rate, ranking 1st against the rush and 7th against the pass. This is thanks to their extremely strong defensive line and their ability to rush the passer. Quarterback Ty Simpson has been great for Alabama. However, I think this Oklahoma defense will be too much for the Alabama offensive line to handle. I think Alabama will win this game, but Oklahoma will keep it within reach the entire way.

Check out my full Oklahoma vs. Alabama preview.

Best Bet: Oklahoma Sooners +6.5 (-110)

USC VS. IOWA BEST BET

IOWA @ USC Odds

This is only going to be Iowa's 4th away game this season. They have yet to travel to the West Coast, so I can see this being an issue for them. I have long maintained that in the era of conference realignment, we are going to have to severely downgrade teams that have to travel two or three time zones to play. We have a case of that in this matchup. USC has the 2nd-rated passing offense and 11th-rated rushing offense. This will be enough to counter Iowa's stout defense. I think USC wins this game handily.

Best Bet: USC Trojans -6.5 (-110)

DUKE VS. VIRGINIA BEST BET

UVA @ DUKE Odds

The Duke Blue Devils are the net success rate darlings. They are extremely efficient offensively, but their special teams have cost them games. This is a pseudo-playoff game, with the winner seemingly finding themselves in the ACC Championship game if all else goes right. With the status of Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris up in the air, this feels like the right time to get in on the Duke side before his status is announced. Duke has the 9th-ranked pass offense, and they are extremely efficient on early downs. I think Duke separates themselves as the top contender for the ACC in this matchup.

Check out my Duke vs. Virginia preview.

Best Bet: Duke Blue Devils -6.5 (-110)

EAST CAROLINA VS. MEMPHIS BEST BET

MEM @ ECU Odds

East Carolina is a well-rounded football team. They rank 38th in offensive success rate and 31st in defensive success rate. Their defense is particularly stout against the rush, which is something Memphis' offense is particularly good at. East Carolina will be attacking Memphis' 96th-ranked passing defense, and I believe they are primed to exploit that matchup in the air.

Best Bet: East Carolina Pirates -2.5 (-120)

GEORGIA SOUTHERN VS. COASTAL CAROLINA BEST BET

Georgia Southern has a huge advantage on offense in this matchup. They have the 53rd-ranked rush offense, but the real story here is Coastal Carolina's defense. Coastal Carolina ranks 100th or worse in many various defensive metrics, including early-downs EPA per play allowed and EPA per rush attempt allowed. Georgia Southern's rushing offense will be able to attack coastal Carolina, which will open up the passing game for them.

Best Bet: Georgia Southern Eagles -2.5 (-110)

GEORGIA VS. TEXAS BEST BET

TEX @ UGA Odds

Arch Manning and this Texas offense has been lackluster so far this year. They only rank 76th in EPA per pass attempt and 80th in EPA per rush attempt. Conversely, Gunner Stockton has been one of the more efficient passers ranking 14th and EPA per pass attempt. There is no doubt that this Texas Longhorns defense is strong, particularly on early downs, but I believe Georgia's offense will be able to get enough going to keep Texas out of this game. I do not see how Texas will be able to move the ball.

Check out my full Texas vs. Georgia preview.

Best Bet: Georgia Bulldogs -5.5 (-115)

MISSISSIPPI STATE VS. MISSOURI BEST BET

MSST @ MIZ Odds

Missouri has the best pair of edge rushers in college football. They should be able to make life extremely rough for Blake Shapen and this Mississippi State offense. Missouri's defense ranks 23rd in EPA per pass attempt allowed. They rank 11th on early downs EPA per play and 29th in late down success rate allowed. Missouri's offense has been affected by injuries, but they still manage to have the 13th-ranked rush offense and remain efficient on late downs. Missouri should be able to take care of this Mississippi State team that has struggled in SEC play.

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Best Bet: Missouri Tigers -6.5 (-110)

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