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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM

RBC Heritage - Weekend Best Bets

Weekend Chasers
2020 RBC Heritage

It's never a bad idea to allocate some of your weekly golf betting units for weekend play – after the cut and/or before the final round – and it's got a number of advantages overall.
 
For one, the field has thinned itself out enough to the guys who appear to be in average/above average form at worst, and bettors have already come along for that ride for 36 holes. Making decisions on guys with all of that already in the rear-view mirror is just more helpful data available to use.

How bettors use what they've seen through two rounds is entirely up to them, as weekend and live betting golf tournaments on Saturday and Sunday is something that could take a bit of getting used to.
 
Secondly, the field may officially be cut in half, but when thinking about outright winners on Friday and Saturday night, the field is actually much thinner then that. Congested leader boards like the Heritage this year does bring more betting options, and with it the knowledge that the guys you back will at least have two rounds with a chance. That's not something your selections are guaranteed by any means in pre-tournament betting.
 
Statistical data available through two rounds is the clincher in the argument for making weekend golf betting part of the trade, as sometimes scores lie a little bit and there are a few golfers who may be sitting where they are thanks to a highly unsustainable hot putter. Using different approaches in interpreting that data and projecting how it may play out over the weekend is where money can be made in weekend golf betting.
 
In the end there are plenty of reasons to keep units available for golf betting as the event goes on, and the more one gets accustomed to it, they might even prefer it more. When you've got a clustered leaderboard at the top like we do with the RBC Heritage this week, it adds even more betting intrigue to the event.
 
Hopefully we can get this weekend action started out on the right foot, as there are a couple of names worthy of adding to the outright look.

Event So Far

Putting is such a fickle aspect of the game that it's one of those things that can't really be called in terms of getting hot, but you tend to always know when things are going to cool off for some guys.
 
Well, Webb Simpson leads the field in Strokes Gained: Putting by a wide margin through two rounds, gaining six shots on the field on Friday alone with that hot putter. Webb's got plenty of talent to cool off with the putter and still end up winning the event as his ball striking is still superb (+1.29 Strokes Gained: Approach).

RBC Heritage Odds
After 36 Holes
Top 10 Contenders

  • Bryson Dechambeau +300
  • Webb Simpson +350
  • Brooks Koepka +900
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick +100
  • Corey Conners +1400
  • Tony Finau +2000
  • Dustin Johnson +2200
  • Erik van Rooyen +2200
  • Abraham Ancer +2500

Odds per DraftKings
Subject to Change
T&C's Apply, 21+, Legal US States Only 


Yet, from a betting perspective, you can't be taking Simpson at this stage with the likelihood of is putter cooling off tremendously quite high, and you've probably got to be considering fading him in various matchups and other ways that seem to make sense.
 
So here are two names I'm adding to my list of those trying to chase down Simpson at the front, with Dustin Johnson the only surviving ticket from pre-tournament action.

After the Cut
Odds to Win Bets

Abraham Ancer +2500

Ancer calmly went about his business on Friday in putting up a smooth 64 to finish three shots back of the lead, and he's done so on the strength of his ball striking. Ancer is among the best in the tournament in Strokes Gained: Approach, and if his putter decides to heat up at all with these chances he's giving himself, Friday's 64 may not be the only one we see from Ancer this week.
 
Three shots back isn't much when you expect the leader's putter to cool off dramatically, and with much bigger names occupying similar space on the leaderboard, Ancer may end up being the guy that's a little undervalued in this position.
 
Tightening things up off the tee and draining a few putts is all his game really needs right now to be at the top of this leaderboard.

Matthew NeSmith +4000

NeSmith is another name in this range that's a few shots back of the leader who's rather undervalued relative to where he sits, simply because of the bigger fish like DJ, Koekpa, and others occupying the same space. But NeSmith grew up in this state, considers this his 'home course' and has just steadily stayed with a solid game through two rounds.
 
That -9 score has come despite starting Friday with a double bogey on his opening hole, and carding two other bogeys in the opening round. He's doing everything right from a statistical approach as well, gaining strokes on the field in every category but narrowly missing out on doing so around the green. Eliminate those few bad swings and NeSmith might have been our leader at this stage.
 
Through two days it's been apparent that NeSmith is plenty comfortable on this course – he won here as a junior – and him being a relative unknown to the majority of the market have to be viewed as positives. A guy that was considered to be a potential nice story at the beginning of the tournament is showing that he can hang with the best of them. Tag him with an each way wager for some extra cushion if you'd like too, as his first career Top 5 on the PGA could easily be the end result.

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