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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM

Horse Races Today: Sunday's Belmont Park and Churchill Downs Analysis & Odds

I guess age is just a number after all.

I thought the seven-year-old Tom’s d’Etat might be vulnerable in Saturday’s Stephen Foster (G2) at Churchill Downs and at such a short price would be worth a play against, but he proved me wrong, rolling to a very impressive 4 ½ length victory.

There were eight graded stakes between Belmont Park and Churchill Downs, and it proved a daunting task to make money as short priced favorites dominated. Tom’s d’Etat paid $4.60.

Midnight Bisou stamped her ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) in the Fleur De Lis Handicap (G2) at Churchill Downs, rolling to an 8 ¼ length win and paying $3.00 to win.

Cazadore won the Bashford Manor paying $2.80 and Harvey’s Lil Goil was the upset winner of the day, winning the Regret (G2) paying $24.20.

At Belmont Park, Firenze Fire won the True North (G2) at $4.20, Mean Mary returned $4.40 in her win in the New York (G2), and Newspaperofrecord took the field gate to wire in the Just a Game (G1), the payoff at $4.10.

The only longshot to score at Belmont Park in the stakes action was Victim of Love in the Vagrancy Handicap (G3). She was the biggest price in the field and returned $56.00 with 4-5 favorite Come Dancing having to settle for the runner up spot.

Overall, it was not a good day for my bankroll, but we have plenty of solid betting opportunities this afternoon. My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Churchill Downs and Belmont Park.

You can catch the action from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs from 1:00 to 6:00 ET on FS2. NBCSN will be simulcasting the TVG Network today from 4:00 to 8:00 ET. In addition, you can stream the action using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.

Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

Belmont Park Race 1 Analysis - 6/28 (1:15 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 1 Md $40,000 (1:15 ET)

6 Rapide Franey 8-1

7 True Grace 8-5

2 Danegeld 4-1

3 After Prom Party 9-2


Analysis: Rapide Franey
debuts for the Englehart barn that is 14% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. The colt is by Central Banker out of a Purge mare that ash dropped one foal to race, 6 for 13 Dark Money ($213,457). This guy is working as if he has some ability and this is not exactly a tough looking group her debuting for a $40,000 tag.

True Grace makes her first starts since December for the Clement barn that is 19% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. He faded to finish a well beaten eighth last out but was right in the mix two and three back with a third and a second. He returns a gelding and put in a good breeze over the main track here on June 24. The gelding is out of a Smart Strike mare that has dropped four other foals to race, all winners.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

Churchill Downs Race 4 Analysis - 6/28 (2:38 p.m. ET)

CD Race 4 Md $40,000 (2:38 ET)

2 Kid Shelleen 6-1

9 Chasing Anna 7-2

6 Britannia Kitten 5-1

4 Kid Shelleen 6-1


Analysis: Kid Shelleen
was off a beat slow in his debut where he was sent off at 5-1 in a field of 12 and came with a good late rally to finish third, beaten three lengths for the top spot. He was claimed out of the race by the Kenneally barn that is 29% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He steps up to $40,000 and should move forward with a race under his belt. He is bred to like a wet track, out of a Yonaguska mare that has dropped two other foals to race with one winner.

Chasing Anna stalked the early pace from the outside and weakened to finish sixth last out and drops in for a tag for the first time. The colt had the lead heading for home in his debut but weakened to finish fourth and was fourth again second time out. The $400,000 Keeneland purchase drops in for a tag here for the McPeek barn. He is out of a Distorted Humor mare that has dropped one winner. He is bred to like a wet track.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

Belmont Park Race 8 Analysis - 6/28 (5:04 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 8 The Bouwerie (5:04 ET)

6 Big Q 7-2

1 Critical Value 6-5

2 Ilchester Cheetah 6-1

3 Naked Avenger 8-1


Analysis: Big Q
is making her first start since January where the filly pressed the early pace and was no match for the winner late in a runner up finish in the state bred Franklin Square. She won the state bred Key Cents three back and broke her maiden at the Spa last July. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and Johnny V. sticks for the Gullo barn that is 21% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff.

Critical Value is making her first start since running fourth in the Demoiselle (G2) trying to get nine furlongs. She won the one-mile state bred Maid of the Mist two back, drawing clear to win by 5 1/2 lengths. that outing was her first after graduating three back at the Spa going six furlongs in her second career outing. The Englehart barn is 9% winners with runners returning off a +180-day layoff. She has been working quickly in the mornings and will appreciate eh return to the state bred level and the cut back to seven furlongs. She is the logical one to beat but her price is going to be on the light side.

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #6 Rapide Franey 8-1
R4: #2 Indochine 8-1
R6: #5 Yousaidhello 12-1
R8: #3 Naked Avenger 8-1
R9: #1 Kiss and Run 8-1
R9: #3 Timeless Journey 10-1

Good luck today!

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