Friday’s Picks from Belmont

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

It was a chalky day at Belmont Park on Thursday with all nine winners paying single digits with the highest win mutual being Dynadrive at $9.90 in the fourth race.

The first four lengths of the early Pick 5 paid $5.70, $5.60, $4.10, and $9.90. If you used my top two picks in each race, you were alive going into the final leg.

I was alive and not expecting much of payoff, but they will pay with my to pick Warfront Fighter, who was 6-1 on the morning line, was $2,674.75 for .50 cents. I was stunned.

The entry of Market Impact and Joint and Several was the even-money favorite, and my second choice and the will pay was still a decent $219.00.

War Front Fighter was a fighter for most of the race but weakened in the stretch to finish fifth. Joint and Several got up late and paid $3.20, giving us the Pick 5 if you played it.

The low takeout rate of the Pick 5 in New York makes the wager one of the best values in horse racing. I whiffed on the late Pick 5, which was won by my second, fourth, first, second and third choices, paying $106.50.

The early Pick 5 today starts with a five-horse maiden race in the opener, and the second race looks on the chalky side. However, the final three legs of the sequence offer some value, and we likely can catch a better payoff than yesterday.

Don’t forget we have Empire Showcase Day at Belmont Park and Maryland Million Day at Laurel Park on Saturday. Between the two tracks, we have 20 stakes races on tap.

You can catch the action from Belmont Park today from 12:30 to 5:30 ET on FS2. Also, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. offers a risk-free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Friday, click here.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily, and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday, and my two-day Breeders’ Cup Reports.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK RACE 1 ANALYSIS (12:20 P.M. ET)

BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #5 Plum Awesome 5-2
• #1 Millefeuille 8-5
• #2 Wedding Band 6-1
• #4 Mo Dean 5-2

Analysis: Plum Awesome debuts for the Pletcher barn that is 20% winners with first-timers. This year the trainer is 21% winners with juvenile firsters. This gal is by Curlin out of the multiple Grade 1 stakes winner Plum Pretty ($1.6 million), who has dropped three foals to race with one winner. She has been working sharply in the mornings and breaks from the outside while only facing four foes.

Millefeuille stalked the early pace and came with an excellent late rally to finish in the runner up spot, going a mile here. She was three clear of the rest of the field in the effort. The barn does better with second outers (16%) than with firsters. She is also by Curlin and the first foal to race out of a War Front mare.

BELMONT PARK RACE 7 ANALYSIS (3:39 P.M. ET)

BEL Race 7 OClm $40,000N2X

• #5 Build to Suit 7-2
• #1 Fort Worth 3-1
• #4 Charlie McCoy 8-1
• #2 Celtic Chaos 8-1

Analysis: Build to Suit came off a 3 1/2 month break last out facing Alw-3 $80,000 optional claimers where he tracked the early pace and weakened to finish fifth going seven furlongs. He is back in with state breds here and won at this condition four back here at 6 1/2 furlongs. He then won the state-bred Hudson in his following start before hitting the sidelines. He returned in June of this year with a fifth in the state-bred Commentator. He reunites with Franco, who was aboard for his last three wins and drops into an easier spot for the Brown barn.

Fort Worth pressed the early pace, opened up a lead heading for home but could not hold off the top pair late in a third-place finish on his first try at this level. He beat state-bred Alw-1 foes two back in his first start against winners and off a 16-month layoff. Three good works since his last effort, and looks to have as much upside as any in the field here as he makes his third start off the bench and just fifth career start overall.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park

• R3: #2 Equant 10-1
• R4: #6 Sargeant Drive 12-1
• R6: #3 Sneakiness 8-1
• R7: #4 Charlie McCoy 8-1
• R7: #2 Celtic Chaos 8-1
• R8: #9 Stuy Town Baby 12-1
• R10: #7 Girl Dad 20-1

Good luck today!

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