Thursday’s Picks from Aqueduct

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

We start the winter meeting at Aqueduct this afternoon and the weather has cooperated enough in New York that we will have some turf racing, two races on the grass this afternoon.

It looks as if we will have a few turf race through Saturday.

The fall meeting ended on Sunday and Kendrick Carmouche picked up his first jockey title in New York with 23 wins from his 123 mounts. Carmouche also picked up his first career Grade 1 win booting home True Timber in the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) last Saturday.

He was aided by the Ortiz brothers riding out of town through some of the meet including Breeders’ Cup weekend, but horseplayers know that Carmouche puts in a 100% effort with each and every one of his mounts.

“I give thanks to everyone who put a good effort in to supporting me and pushed me along to win this meet. I’m very appreciative,” Carmouche said. “I seized the opportunity at hand and I’m grateful for all the trainers and owners for letting me show other people that I can win races. I’m very blessed to say that I’ve come to New York five years ago and I got a title for the fall meet. I’m very pleased with myself. I’m sure my mom and dad and all my fans are just so happy for me. I’m on cloud nine right now and I might not come down until next Thursday.”

Carmouche is my favorite jockey riding in New York, and I am hoping trainers continue to give him live mounts. He won seven races for trainer Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown might be well served to throw him a few more mounts.

Coming up on Saturday the feature at the Big A is the $100,000 Alex M. Robb for New York breds. We also will make a trip to Gulfstream Park where there are five stakes on the card including the $200,00 Ft. Lauderdale (G2).

You can stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Thursday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start: 

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (12:20 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Clm $35,000N3L

• #3 Qian B C   8-1
• #5 Complexifier   7-5
• #1 Smile Bryan   8-5
• #2 Money in the Bank   9-2

Analysis: Qian B C was pinched back coming out of the gate which left him near the back of the pack, and he finished evenly in a sixth-place finish last out going six furlongs on turf. He was a decent third at this level on turf two back. This is just his second career start on dirt, his first coming while in the maiden ranks in his second career start and he was not a threat. Rosario sticks for Baker and this guy has been facing a bit tougher. He has worked well on dirt throughout his career and gets another look here at a decent price.

Complexifier made his last start at Keeneland versus restricted $30,000 foes where he stalked the early pace and finished evenly in a fourth-place finish as the beaten favorite. He was claimed out of the race by the Gargan barn that is 47% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He did not fire his best two and three back but has back numbers good enough to handle this group and figures to move forward on the barn switch. 

AQUEDUCT RACE 7 ANALYSIS (3:17 P.M. ET)

Race 7 Clm $16,000

• #6 Dangerous Edge   6-1
• #8 No Lime   5-2
• #9 Anzio Beach   6-1
• #11 Diannesimpazible   5-1

Analysis: Dangerous Edge was away at the back of the pack last out and came with a god late run to finish fourth going six furlongs at this level in his first start off the claim by the Noda barn. The gelding caught a racing strip that was kind to inside speed that day. The gelding stretches out to a mile for the first time here for a sharp barn that had a quiet fall meeting here (3 for 23). This guy has plenty of pedigree to handle the extra ground and the barn is 19% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.

No Lime makes his first start off a four month break here and his first start for the Rice barn that is 21% winners first off the claim. After breaking his maiden in his debut the Mott barn thought enough of this guy to try him in stakes company in his next three starts. He fits well at this level and the barn has solid numbers with layoff types, hitting at a 17% clip with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R1: #3 Qian B C   8-1
• R3: #2 Twisted Tom   8-1
• R6: #14 Farragut   12-1
• R6: #5 Advanced Strategy   8-1
• R8: #9 Graetz   10-1
• R8: #2 Doll   8-1
• R9: #8 The Beast and I   15-1
• R9: #10 Confectioner   12-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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