Thursday’s Picks from Saratoga

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

The Pick 6 paid a hefty $49,798 on Wednesday at Saratoga despite the final leg coming back chalky with the favorite Clever Fellow paying $3.80 to wrap things up.

My second choice Anejo got things started paying $24.20 and then my top pick Shining Colors returned $14.80 with the daily double paying $191.00. I was feeling pretty good. My personal tickets shrunk when my fifth choice Jordan’s Leo won and paid $29.60 in the seventh race. I was still alive but had to be close to perfect the rest of the day.

My second choice won the eighth, ninth and final leg, paying $12.80, $6.10 and $3.80, not quite perfect enough. leaving me with just a few five out of six tickets which paid $289.50 each.

The early Pick 5 slipped through my fingers despite having three Live Longshots in yesterday’s column in the sequence. Red Danger kicked things off paying $16.60 but was my fourth choice. Strong Odor was my fourth choice in the fourth, paying $29.80. and Anejo capped things off paying $24.20 as my second choice.

I had the favorite Extra Effort as my top pick in the second race who paid $5.10 and Sea Foam won the third as my third choice paying $12.00.

My top pick in the third race was a key horse in my early Pick 5 tickets and had to settle for second. That hurt. The Pick 5 came back at $26,844.75. I had four out of five on most of my tickets and needless to stay I had a sleepless night.

We knocked down a couple of good exactas including the Anejo-Tivoli Twirl exacta that paid $90.50, so it was still a pretty good day.

No Pick 6 carryover today and the card does not have as many live long shots as yesterday, but the early and late Pick 5 will still get most of my attention.

“Saratoga Live” is on FS2 (and streaming on YouTube) from 1:00 to 6:30 ET. Looking to play the ponies? TVG is offering new players  up to a $300 Risk Free wager.  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Saratoga Report for Thursday click here .

Here is the opener from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SARATOGA 1 ANALYSIS (1:05 P.M. ET)

 Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #5 Juggler 7-2
• #7 Who Hoo Thats Me 6-1
• #2 Gimmedamoney 3-1
• #8 Convertible Freeze 9-2

Analysis: Juggler chased the early pace and could not make up any ground late in the mud over an inside speed favoring racing strip in a third-place finish in his second career start here. He was a non- threatening fourth two back in his debut where he was sent off at 2-1 in a field of six at Belmont Park. He came back with a good work for Breen who does good work with juvies, hitting at a 23% clip overall. This guy should be forwardly placed and Saez sticks. The colt was a $115,000 Keeneland purchase out of the stakes winner Alpha Kitten ($227,010) who has dropped four other runners with three winners..

Who Hoo Thats Me debuts for the Abreu barn that is 27% winners (with a +ROI) with first timers. The colt is by Keen Ice out of a Hard Spun mare, her first foal to race. The colt has been working over the Oklahoma training track and while the drills are not jumping off the page this barn tends to have them tight and ready to go first out..

SARATOGA 8 ANALYSIS (5:05 P.M. ET)

SAR Race 8 OClm $80,000N2X

• #3 Briefcase Bully 4-1
• #5 Shoplifted 3-1
• #2 Mihos 2-1
• #4 Letmeno 7-2

Analysis: Briefcase Bully pressed the early pace and could not get past the winner late in a runner up finish at Ellis Park last out going seven furlongs over a sloppy track. This colt has not seen a fast dirt surface since his maiden breaker last November where he earned his best career number. His next three starts came on turf and he beat Alw-1 foes two back over a wet fast surface at Churchill Downs in a race taken off the turf. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and Saez picks up the call for DeVaux who has won with 3 of the first 6 she has sent out here.

Shoplifted made a mild late rally behind a sharp early pace to check in fifth last out at Churchill Downs at this condition. This guy gets an extra furlong here and he has some back class, running third in the Woody Stephens (G1) at Belmont Park and the HA Jerkens (G1) here last summer. H broke his maiden over the Spa main track in his debut back in '19 followed by a runner up finish in the Hopeful (G1). He looks to be on the improve and he has been facing mostly tougher than he faces in this spot. He has run well at seven furlongs without a win at the distance, landing in the money in 3 of 4 trips. This race looks like it will set up nicely for him but Santana needs to keep him a bit closer to the pace which seems likely to happen here.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager. 

Saratoga

• R5: #5 Hot Rod Rumble 10-1
• R5: #10 Happy Happy B 8-1
• R7: #8 Sweeter 12-1
• R7: #2 Thief of Hearts 10-1

Good luck today!

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