Santa Anita Derby Picks, Predictions, Odds

The 148th Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place on Saturday May 7, 2022 from Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby prep schedule continues to heat up during the months of March and April.

VegasInsider horse racing expert Anthony Stabile will be providing his Free Picks and Finish Predictions for key races throughout the prep season and he's focusing on one race for Saturday April 2, 2022 -- the 2022 Santa Anita Derby.

Santa Anita Derby Resources

  • Date: Saturday, April 9, 2022
  • Post-Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
  • Race: 6
  • Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/8 Miles
  • Qualification: Three-year-olds
  • Track: Santa Anita Park
  • Location: Arcadia, California

Betting On The Santa Anita Derby

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Santa Anita Derby Betting Analysis

1) HAPPY JACK (20-1)

He finished well behind the two big guys in here in his two stakes tries and he’ll again draw the rail while putting blinkers back on. The pace does figure to be quick and maybe he’s looking at weary front runners late, but he’s got some improving to do to seriously factor today.

2) ARMAGNAC (20-1)

Had things his own way on the front end over a speed favoring surface when breaking his maiden over the track two starts back before getting crushed by a couple of today’s rivals last time. He and his two uncoupled stablemates leave the Bob Baffert barn and are now under the care of an outfit that has had a nice meeting, but this colt doesn’t look to be much of a player in this short field.


Two time G2 stakes winning speedball answered the distance question with a powerful front running score when stretched out to two turns in the San Felipe last month, soundly defeating a couple of today’s foes in the process. Son of a Triple Crown winner figures to have little difficulty with the slightly longer distance of this heat, but he does have a couple of quick rivals to deal with from the opening bell. They’ll have him to beat.

4) MESSIER (1-1)

He’s had some time to recover since destroying G3 rivals in the Lewis and earning a big speed figure in the process. A perfect 2 for 2 over the track, he’ll go for a new barn today after not missing a beat in training in the interim. Capable of rating, his versatility may prove the key for him here. Looms the main danger.

5) WIN THE DAY (20-1)

Earned a sharp late pace figure when running away from maidens first time on the dirt and now he’ll take a big step up the class ladder. The added furlong should pose him little trouble and the pace does figure to flatter his running style so we’d include him underneath in exotic wagers and hope some of the pace comes back to him in the lane.

6) TAIBA (4-1)

This $1.7 million auction buy dropped jaws with his debut sprint score and is the third of this field to leave the Bob Baffert barn and land in the capable hands of trainer Tim Yakteen. He loses his rider to uncoupled stablemate MESSIER, but he gets a strong replacement in the saddle and his pedigree says he’s a two turn horse so maybe this isn’t too much too soon for him and they just let him roll from the bell. Off his unveiling he has a right to be any kind.


3 – FORBIDDEN KINGDOM guns to the top from his starting position inside the other speedy runners signed on and continues his powerful run on this circuit and beats this field to the wire. 4 – MESSIER settles early and hooks his aforementioned rival in the lane but proves second best. 5 – WIN THE DAY rallies to battle it out with 6 – TAIGA for the minor awards.


  • $20 TRIFECTA 3 over 4 over 5, 6
  • $15 TRIFECTA 3 over 4 over 1, 5, 6
  • $5 TRIFECTA 3 over 1, 5, 6 over 4