2022 San Felipe Picks, Predictions, Odds

The 148th Kentucky Derby is scheduled to take place on Saturday May 7, 2022 from Churchill Downs and the Kentucky Derby prep schedule continues to heat up during the months of March and April.

VegasInsider horse racing expert Anthony Stabile will be providing his Free Picks and Finish Predictions for key races throughout the prep season and he's focusing on three races for Saturday Mar. 5, 2022.

Along with breaking down the San Felipe, he's also handicapped the Gotham Stakes and Fountain of Youth for Saturday too.


  • Date: Saturday, March 6, 2022
  • Post-Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
  • Race: 6
  • Distance-Length: Dirt, 1 1/16 Miles
  • Qualification: Three-year-olds
  • Track: Santa Anita Park
  • Location: Arcadia, California

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SAN FELIPE STAKES Betting Analysis

(Morning-Line Odds)

1) HAPPY JACK (8-1)

Blinkers come off after offering little first time going long in stakes company. He was able to settle behind a hot pace before running on to break his maiden first time out and maybe the inside draw enables him to find a good spot behind speed that could be coming back to him. Worth a look in this moderate field.


California bred tries open stakes runners while moving back to dirt for the first time. His lone main track start came first time out but it wasn’t much. He’s shown a decent late kick on the grass but not sure how well that will translate over this footing.

3) ARMAGNAC (5-1)

Set decent fractions when wiring maidens at odds-on going long for the first time and he returned to work sharply for his foray into the stakes ranks. Bob Baffert barn has won this race 4 of the last 6 times it was contested, most recently with Life is Good last year, and 8 times overall, so this colt is in good hands.


Broke his maiden sprinting last time out after getting trounced by one of these in his debut run. His rider Mike Smith has taken 3 of the last 5 runnings of this race, including last year aboard Life Is Good. Doesn’t appear to be much of a threat, even in a soft renewal of this stakes.


Exits an even effort when unable to run down the front running Forbidden Kingdom who draws to his immediate outside in here when odds on sprinting in his stakes debut. Love the way he’s returned to work and his pedigree suggests he’ll handle today’s added trip. Expecting he’ll have a better shot at running down his rival this time.


Speedy colt rolled through quick splits to take the G2 San Vincente with a career best speed figure. Son of a Triple Crown winner boasts a sprinter’s pedigree on the dam’s side so though he’s likely alone of the front end from the outset in his route debut, don’t know that getting this trip will be a slam dunk and he’s going to be a short price. Still, he’s the one to catch.

7) CABO SPIRIT (5-1)

He was dusted by a front running, odds on, 15 length winner when moving to dirt last time in the G3 Lewis and now he’ll try the trip again. He draws outside and should again be able to employ pace tracking tactics while facing a speedster who could well be retreating in the lane. He’ll have to improve but warrants some consideration.



6 – FORBIDDEN KINGDOM jumps out from the gate and attempts to make every pole a winning one, but he gets leg weary late in his first route start and gets passed by 5 – DOPPLEGANGER in the lane. 1 – HAPPY JACK and 7 – CABO SPIRIT pick up the rest of the exotic pieces.