Bucks vs. Hawks Predictions, Odds, Preview

Apr. 25, 2021
by Jonathan Willis
NBA Expert

Milwaukee is having its worst regular season yet under head coach Mike Budenholzer.

The Bucks went 60-22 in his first season and 56-17 last year, but they are just 36-22 going into the final few weeks of the 2020-21 NBA season. They are chasing Brooklyn and Philadelphia in the Eastern Conference standings, and the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks aren’t too far behind.

Both of those teams have been performing better than the Bucks over their last ten games, and the Bucks will face the Hawks on Sunday night in Atlanta.

Bucks vs. Hawks Betting Resources

Betting Odds - Bucks vs. Hawks

Line Movements

Subject to Change

  • Spread: Bucks -6.5
  • Money-Line: Milwaukee -250, Atlanta +205
  • Total: 226.5

The Bucks look for their third win against the Hawks this season as the two Eastern squads meet up in Atlanta. (AP)

Bucks vs. Hawks Current Form-Last Game

Atlanta was one game under .500 at the start of the month. The Hawks have looked like one of the best teams in the East since that point though with a 10-3 record in April.

Their only three losses have come against the Grizzlies, Bucks, and Knicks, but they have also benefited from a relatively soft schedule. None of their victories in this run have come against a team in the top six in either conference.

The Hawks have yet to beat the Bucks this season. They met in Milwaukee in late January, and the Bucks picked up a 129-115 win despite 30+ points from both John Collins and De’Andre Hunter.

Trae Young and Clint Capela were not available due to injury, but they did play in Atlanta’s 120-109 loss to Milwaukee ten days ago.

Unfortunately, Collins and Hunter missed that game due to injury, so the Hawks have yet to face the Bucks at full strength. That won’t happen on Sunday either as Hunter and Young have been ruled out, and Capela is a game-time decision.

Bogdan Bogdanovic led Atlanta past Miami, 118-103 on Friday. The Hawks didn’t have Capela, Hunter, or Young, but Bogdanovic and Collins combined for 41 points in the win.

Milwaukee has been one of the streakiest teams in the league. The Bucks alternated three-game losing streaks with three-game winning streaks from late March until the middle of April, and they followed up two consecutive losses with two straight wins over Philadelphia this week.

Giannis Antetokuonmpo had 27 points and 16 rebounds in the 124-117 victory on Thursday, and he was electric in Saturday afternoon’s 132-94 throttling of the Sixers. He had 24 points and 14 rebounds to become the Bucks’ second-leading scorer in franchise history.

Philadelphia made just 22.6% of its threes in the loss as Joel Embiid sat out with soreness in his right shoulder.

Bucks vs. Hawks Head-to-Head

  • Apr. 15, 2021 - Bucks 120 at Hawks 109, Milwaukee -4, Under 236
  • Jan. 24, 2021 - Bucks 129 vs. Hawks 115, Milwaukee -12, Over 225

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 37-22 SU, 27-32 ATS, 35-23-1 OU
  • Road: 17-12 SU, 12-17 ATS, 15-13-1 OU

Antetokuonmpo surpassed Glenn Robinson as the second leading scorer in team history on Saturday, only trailing Hall of Famer Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. The two-time NBA MVP has not been as dominant this season as we have seen in the past, but he is still putting up great numbers.

Antetokuonmpo is averaging 28.5 PPG and 11.3 RPG on the season with a 28.87 PER. His three-point shooting continues to be an issue though as he is making just 18.2% of his threes in April.

Khris Middleton is the second leading scorer on the Bucks. He is averaging 20.3 PPG, and he is also helping out in other ways with 6.0 RPG and 5.6 APG to become a solid second option to Antetokuonmpo.

Middleton is knocking down 43% of his threes on the year, but he had an awful day on Saturday as he failed to make a single field goal in 20 minutes of action.

Picking up a quality guard was crucial for Milwaukee this offseason, and they have found a big upgrade for Eric Bledsoe in Jrue Holiday.

Holiday is averaging 17.2 PPG and 5.6 APG for the Bucks this season. He started off slow, but he has since rallied to hit at least 40% from beyond the arc in each of the last three months. Currently, Holiday is making 44.7% of his threes in April.

The Bucks have the top scoring offense in the league (119.4 PPG). They are still playing solid interior defense to go with that, but the perimeter defense has struggled. Milwaukee is allowing opponents to hit 37.6% of their threes on the year.

Atlanta Hawks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 33-27 SU, 33-26-1 ATS, 30-30 OU
  • Home: 17-11 SU, 17-11 ATS, 13-15 OU

Three of Atlanta’s four leading scorers might miss this game. That will put a lot of pressure on John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic if Capela is unable to play on Sunday.

Collins is the second leading scorer on Atlanta with 17.9 PPG, and he is the second-best rebounder (7.7 RPG) behind Capela. He is making 54.8% of his field goals and is able to spread the floor more with Capela on the court.

Bogdanovic is one of the best three-point shooters on the Hawks. He is averaging 14.7 PPG while making 41.8% of his threes on the year. We have seen more from him lately given all the injuries Atlanta has dealt with though, and he has flourished with the increased playing time.

Bogdanovic is averaging 21.5 PPG and making 49.6% of his threes while averaging 36.5 MPG in the month of April.

Deadline acquisition Lou Williams figures to see more time too. Williams struggled with the Clippers this year, but he has played better since arriving in Atlanta. He is averaging 12.1 PPG while making 42.4% of his threes with the Hawks. Williams has scored at least 10 points in three straight games.

The Hawks have been much better on defense this season. Although they are league average in scoring defense, allowing 111.5 PPG, they are allowing opponents to make just 34.8% of their threes against this team (3rd in the NBA).

Key Injuries

Milwaukee Bucks

  • None

Atlanta Hawks

  • C Clint Capela: Back - Questionable
  • PG Trae Young: Ankle - Out
  • SF Cam Reddish: Achilles - Out
  • SF De'Andre Hunter: Knee - Out

Bucks vs. Hawks Prediction

This line is a little puzzling given what Milwaukee has done to Atlanta this season. The Hawks will be without multiple key players, while the Bucks are fully healthy. Lay the chalk with the road favorite here.

Score Prediction: Bucks 119, Hawks 107
Best Bet: Milwaukee -6.5