Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Thursday’s slate of First Round Playoff action will conclude with a compelling Game 3 between Western Conference foes in the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets. Coverage begins from Ball Arena in Denver at 10:00 p.m. ET.

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Score Prediction

Warriors 113, Nuggets 107

Best Bets

Under 224.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with an impressive 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run – with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Golden State was far less dominant without the combined presence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering Golden State closed the regular season with a relatively pedestrian 35-25 SU and 26-31-3 ATS stretch – with most of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

On the other hand, Denver posted a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Nuggets kicked things off with a lackluster 20-19 SU and 16-23 ATS stretch – while scoring just 105.6 OPPG across that window.

The Nuggets have played excellent since the midway point of January though, considering Denver enters Game 3 riding a sturdy 28-17 SU and 20-24-1 ATS run – while averaging a lofty 118.6 OPPG during that timeframe.

I’ll take the under here, as the Warriors averaged 124.5 OPPG on 53.6% FG and 44% 3FG across their commanding victories in Games 1 and 2, and while Golden State should ultimately cruise past Denver in this series, I doubt they’ll knock down quite as many threes on the road in Games 3 and 4.

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Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds

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Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Resources

• Matchup: Pacific vs. Northwest
• Date: Thursday, April 21, 2022
• Venue: Ball Arena
• Location: Denver, CO
• TV-Time: TNT - 10:00 p.m. ET
• Injury Report
• NBA Playoff Betting Central

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

• SU: 55-29
• ATS: 43-37-4
• O/U: 37-45-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State quickly bounced back with a chip on its shoulder through the opening days of this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games – with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State’s success has primarily come through defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Game 3 riding a bumpy 28-31-3 ATS skid, while surrendering just 107.7 DPPG during that timeframe.

However, Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson, highlighted by the Warriors averaging roughly 115.3 OPPG across their 34 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return. 

Denver Nuggets Betting Analysis

• SU: 48-36
• ATS: 36-47-1
• O/U: 46-36-2

Despite the year-long absence of Jamal Murray, Denver still strung together an admirable 2021-22 campaign, considering the Nuggets finished sixth in the West with a record of 48-34 SU, which fell just one game behind the fifth-seeded Jazz – and four games behind the fourth-seeded Mavericks.

The Nuggets still encountered their fair share of additional health issues throughout the year, primarily highlighted by the season-ending injury to their tertiary scoring option, Michael Porter Jr. 

However, Denver boasts solid numbers at both ends of the floor regardless of the circumstances, considering the Nuggets rank fifth in the league in offensive efficiency and 18^th in defensive efficiency on the year (1.112 OE, 1.094 DE) – which comfortably ranks alongside other offensive powerhouses such as the Nets (1.098 OE, 1.090 DE) and Bucks (1.118 OE, 1.085 DE).

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Head-to-Head

The Warriors won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Denver last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 218.7 PPG. However, Denver went 3-1 SU against Golden State this season, with two of those matchups staying well under the total at an average of 195 PPG, while the other two cruised over at an average of 244 PPG. 

The Warriors stomped Denver by 15+ in the first two matchups of this series though, with both contests soaring over the total at an average 231 PPG. 

Key Players to Watch

• GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
• GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (20.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST)
• DEN: Nikola Jokic - C (27.1 PPG, 13.8 REB, 7.9 AST)
• DEN: Aaron Gordon - PF (15 PPG, 5.9 REB, 2.5 AST)

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Conclusion

After getting blown out by 15+ PTS in back-to-back contests at Chase Center to open this series, the Nuggets return home for Thursday’s third matchup as two-point underdogs against the Warriors at Ball Arena – marking the first time Denver has been a home underdog since hosting Boston on March 20^th (DEN +3).

I’ll take the under here, as Golden State was phenomenal offensively in Games 1 and 2, highlighted by the Warriors racking up 124.5 OPPG on 53.6% FG and 44% 3FG across their commanding pair of home victories to open this series, and while the Warriors should ultimately emerge victorious again Thursday, I think we’ll see a pair of inspired defensive efforts and a much lower point-total in Game 3.

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Trends

• The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
• The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS int their last five games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of the last five Warriors' games.
• The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight Nuggets' games.
• The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups against Denver.
• The total has gone OVER in four of the last five matchups between the Warriors and Nuggets.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson