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Last Updated Apr 28, 2022, 13:21 PM

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions, Picks, Odds

Wednesday’s slate of First Round NBA Playoff action will conclude with a Western Conference Game 5 between the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors. Coverage begins from Chase Center in San Francisco at 10:00 p.m. ET.

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Score Prediction

Warriors 119, Nuggets 114

Best Bets

Over 226 (-110) at Caesars

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with an impressive 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Golden State was far less dominant in the combined presence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering Golden State closed the regular season with a relatively pedestrian 35-25 SU and 26-31-3 ATS stretch, with most of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

On the other hand, Denver posted a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Nuggets kicked things off with a lackluster 20-19 SU and 16-23 ATS stretch, while averaging just 105.6 OPPG across that window.

The Nuggets have played solid basketball since the midway point of January though, considering Denver enters Game 5 riding a sturdy 29-18 SU run, while generating a lofty 118.7 OPPG during that timeframe.

I’ll take the over here, as the first four matchups of this series all went over the total, with Golden State averaging 122 OPPG and Denver averaging 113 OPPG across that stretch, which should ultimately lead to a similar result between these teams in Wednesday’s Game 5.

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Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

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Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Resources

Denver Nuggets Betting Analysis

  • SU: 49-37
  • ATS: 37-48-1
  • O/U: 48-36-2

Despite the year-long absence of Jamal Murray, Denver still strung together an admirable 2021-22 campaign, considering the Nuggets finished sixth in the West with a record of 48-34 SU, which fell just one game shy of the fifth-seeded Jazz and four games behind the fourth-seeded Mavericks.

The Nuggets inevitably encountered their fair share of additional health issues throughout the year though, primarily highlighted by the season-ending injury to Denver’s tertiary scoring option, Michael Porter Jr.

However, Denver still boasts solid numbers at both ends of the floor, considering the Nuggets rank fifth in the league in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency on the year (1.113 OE, 1.095 DE), which comfortably ranks alongside other offensive powerhouses such as the Bucks (1.115 OE, 1.080 DE) and Timberwolves (1.102 OE, 1.080 DE).

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

  • SU: 56-30
  • ATS: 44-38-4
  • O/U: 39-45-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State quickly bounced back with a chip on its shoulder to open this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games – with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State’s success has surprisingly come through defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Game 5 riding a relatively pedestrian 35-25 SU and 26-31-3 ATS stretch, while surrendering just 108 DPPG during that span.

However, Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson, highlighted by the Warriors averaging roughly 115.6 OPPG across their 36 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return.

The total has gone OVER in six of the last seven matchups between Denver and Golden State. (Getty Images)

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Head-to-Head

The Warriors won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Denver last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 218.7 PPG. However, Denver went 3-1 SU against Golden State this season, with two of those matchups staying under the total at an average of 195 PPG, while the other two cruised over at an average of 244 PPG.

More recently though, Golden State stomped Denver by 15+ in the first two matchups of this series, with both contests soaring over the total at an average 231 PPG. However, the following two matchups in Denver were far more competitive, as the Warriors escaped with a narrow 118-113 victory in Game 3, ultimately setting the stage for Denver to bounce back with its first win of the series in Game 4.

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Key Players to Watch

  • DEN: Nikola Jokic - C (27.1 PPG, 13.8 REB, 7.9 AST)
  • DEN: Aaron Gordon - PF (15 PPG, 5.9 REB, 2.9 AST)
  • GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
  • GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (20.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST)

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Conclusion

After narrowly avoiding a sweep with a 126-121 victory in Game 4 this past Sunday (W, 126-121), the Nuggets hit the road for Wednesday’s fifth contest as nine-point underdogs against the Warriors at Chase Center, marking the heaviest number Golden State has been favored by in this series.

I’ll take the over here, as Denver has yielded lofty averages of 119.9 OPPG and 121.6 DPPG across its latest 7-7 SU and 5-9 ATS stretch, which includes an ugly trio of losses against Golden State to open the postseason – setting the stage for a fourth straight high-scoring battle against a Warriors squad that averaged 122 OPPG across Games 1 through 4 of this series.

Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Trends

  • The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Warriors are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the last seven Warriors' games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the last 17 Nuggets' games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the last seven matchups between the Nuggets and Warriors.
  • The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups against Golden State.
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