NBA Daily Tip Sheet Picks and Predictions – Wednesday’s Triple Threat

There's several ways to bet on the NBA, and some of the most popular ones include taking a side, a full-game total, or a player prop. So, this is what we like to call our Daily Triple Threat. Our three best bets in the aforementioned categories for NBA matchups on Wednesday, March 1st. Best of luck!

NBA Best Bets for Wednesday, March 1

  • Miami Heat +2 (-110) vs. PHI
  • Nets-Knicks Over 222.5 (-110)
  • Cameron Johnson (BKN) Over 14.5 Points (-110) @ NYK
Updated on 05/17/2024
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Miami Heat +2 (-110) vs. PHI

Just a few nights ago, the Sixers and Heat met in South Philly for their second matchup of the season, and in that contest, Miami managed to escape with a narrow 101-99 victory on the heels of an impressive late-game sequence by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, marking the first time Philly has lost back-to-back home games since dropping a pair of clunkers to Washington and New York in the waking days of November.

The Sixers have arguably been the best team in basketball since the Holidays, though, they’re now 27-9 in their last 36 games, and they rank 2nd in the league in net rating across that window (+5.1 NetRtg). However, this Philly’ team plays a completely different brand of basketball at home than they do on the road, and quite frankly, they’re fortunate that 22 of their last 36 contests have been played on their home floor.

The Sixers own an impressive record of 24-10 at home this year, compared to just 15-11 on the road. Which, at face value, might not seem like an enormous drop off, however, it’s something that should be taken into consideration in matchups against top-shelf squads like Miami.

While on the other hand, the Heat continue to fly under the radar for a variety of reasons, currently stationed 7th in the Eastern Conference standings with a record of 33-29 on the year. However, make no mistake about it, the Heat are one of the most dangerous teams in basketball at full strength, and they’re more than capable of standing toe-to-toe with this high-caliber Sixers’ squad on a routine basis, especially in a favorable environment.

The Heat are 10-2 in their last 12 home games, despite drawing tough matchups against the Nuggets, Celtics, Bucks (2), Wolves, Lakers, and Thunder during that timeframe. So, I’ll back Miami to handle business in Wednesday’s home meeting against a Sixers’ squad that’s just 13-13 ATS on the road this season.

Take Miami!
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Nets-Knicks Over 222.5 (-110)

The Knicks are playing excellent basketball at the moment, they’re now 10-4 in their last 14 games, while ranking 3rd in the league in net rating across that window (+5.9 NetRtg), and the most impressive part of their latest run, is the fact they held their opponent to under 110 points in eight of those contests.

Make no mistake about it, though, this New York’ team is far from a defensive powerhouse, and on a broader scale, something about their defense typically doesn’t satisfy the eye-test, for lack of a better term. Around the league, all the recent buzz seems to be applauding the Knicks for finally playing some good basketball, especially at the defensive end of the floor.

However, truth be told, New York's defense hasn’t gotten any better as of late, they’ve just slowed things down, and faced an underwhelming group of opponents. Across their latest 10-4 stretch, the Knicks rank 13th in the league in defensive rating at 113.9 DRtg, which just happens to fall directly in line with their overall numbers on the season, currently ranked 13th at 113.9 DRtg. 

While on the other hand, Brooklyn had already conceded to waving the white flag prior the trade deadline after parting ways with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but in the aftermath of the fire sale, the Nets are actually left with a pretty fun group of guys, stacked from top-to-bottom with dynamic mid-level scores, and little-to-no size in the frontcourt. 

Due to the recent reconstruction of their roster, nobody’s expecting Brooklyn to make any noise in the postseason. So, we’ll probably see them shift into cruise control for the rest of the way, especially on defense. The Nets still have plenty of threats out on the perimeter to compensate, though, and there’s a good chance that we’ll see their pace stats begin to climb as they learn how to lean into their newfound strong suits.

Take the Over!
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Johnson is averaging 16.7 PPG since joining the Nets. (Getty)

Cameron Johnson (BKN) Over 14.5 Points

At the trade deadline, the Nets conjured up a deal with Phoenix to part ways with Kevin Durant in exchange for four first-round picks, a first-round pick swap, Mikal Bridges, and, of course, Cameron Johnson, who averaged 13.9 points on 4.8 field goal attempts per game across 17 outings for the Suns this season.

In Phoenix, Johnson was more of a complementary piece, usually averaging somewhere between 22 and 26 minutes per game across his four years or so with Phoenix. However, now in Brooklyn, Johnson is one of the best players on the floor at any given moment, and as a result, his volume scoring numbers have seem an immediate uptick, averaging 16.7 PPG  on 5.8 FGA in his six contests since joining the Nets, while also posting a career-high runtime of 29 minutes per game across that brief span.

Johnson played things relatively safe In his first two trips out for Brooklyn, however, it looks like he’s finally settled in now, having scored 18+ points in three of the Nets’ last four contests, while putting up 13+ shot attempts in all three of those affairs. So, I’ll back Johnson to clear his scoring number in Wednesday’s NYC rivalry matchup against a Knicks’ squad that’s scored 122+ points in four of their last six games.

Bet On Johnson!
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Michael's Triple Threat Tracker: 54-34-2 (+1,429)

  • Miami Heat +2 (-110) vs. PHI
  • Nets-Knicks Over 222.5 (-110)
  • Cameron Johnson (BKN) Over 14.5 Points (-110) @ NYK