NFL Odds Divisional Playoff Round: Chiefs vs Bills Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Divisional Playoff Round: Chiefs vs Bills lines, spreads, betting trends and more.

The second round of the NFL Playoffs concludes on Sunday night with a heavyweight AFC showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. The betting odds see Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog as Patrick Mahomes hits the road in the playoffs for the first time in his career. Coverage begins from Higmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Sunday, January 21 at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Odds

• Opening point spread: Bills -2.5 (-120)
• Opening moneyline: Bills -145/Chiefs +125
• Opening total: Over/Under 46.5 points scored
• Time: 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)

UPDATE 6 P.M. ET SUNDAY: With kickoff approaching, the Bills are -2.5 (-115) in BetMGM's Divisional Round odds market. It's two-way ticket count with a lean toward Buffalo, at 55%, and money is little more on the Bills at 62%.

On the moneyline, 65% of tickets are on underdog Kansas City, but 56% of money is on Buffalo.

"It's looking like we'll need the Chiefs, but it's not that lopsided," BetMGM's Christian Cipollini said.

BetMGM's total opened at 46 and is now 45.5. The Over is netting 60% of tickets/63% of money.

UPDATE 2 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Buffalo opened -2.5 at TwinSpires and is now -3 (+102). The Bills are drawing 63% of spread bets/60% of spread money.

"Not only are the Bills a liability in this game, but they're also our biggest Super Bowl liability," Lucas said. "The Chiefs happen to be the best outcome for us in the Super Bowl futures market. So we're going to be big Chiefs fans on Sunday."

The total is down a tick from 46 to 45.5. Opinion is divided, with 55% of tickets on the Over/60% of cash on the Under.

"Sharp play on Under 46," Lucas said.

UPDATE 9 P.M. ET MONDAY: Kansas City (12-6 SU/10-7-1 ATS) had a shaky 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS stretch late in the season. But the Chiefs head to the Divisional Round on a 3-0 SU and ATS upswing.

On Wild Card Weekend, Kansas City coasted past Miami 26-7 laying 4.5 points in the freezing cold at home.

Speaking of freezing cold at home, Buffalo hosted Pittsburgh on Monday. The game was supposed to be played Sunday, but the extreme weather conditions – heavy snow and high winds – led to a one-day delay.

The Bills (12-6 SU/8-9-1 ATS) closed as 10-point home favorites and notched a 31-17 victory.

The SuperBook opened Chiefs-Bills at Buffalo -2.5 (-120), and the line is stable tonight in the NFL odds Divisional Playoff Round market. There was a nudge on the total, as it dipped from 46.5 to 46.

"I think Buffalo's defensive injuries are playing a part, in terms of why this line came so cheap," Michaelson said. "The two teams have pretty similar power ratings at this point, with a slight nod to Buffalo."

Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard suffered an ankle injury in Monday's win vs. Pittsburgh. Several other players on Buffalo's defense are banged up, too.

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Divisional Playoff Round Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Chiefs vs Bills Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

We're used to fireworks when Mahomes and Allen play, but that really hasn't been Kansas City football this season. Chiefs games average just 38.8 PPG this season and have only topped 46 three times all season, none since November. Chiefs unders are 13-5 now, best of any team, and Kansas City second-half unders are a wild 16-2.

Winter weather favors the run game, and so do the matchups here with both pass defenses so good and both run defenses vulnerable. More running means long drives chewing up the clock and keeping the other QB on the sidelines, and that means less scoring. Remember, we only got 37 points between these teams in December. Bills unders are 11-7 themselves, and games with 10+ MPH winds are 64% to the under over the past three seasons.

These are different teams right now than what we've seen, and I'm expecting this battle to take place mostly on the ground. But I think I'll avoid that second-half under, despite the trend. Both teams have scored in all six meetings between Mahomes and Allen, averaging 14.5 PPG in the fourth quarter. In fact, I like both teams to score in the fourth quarter at -160 over at bet365.

This thing will be low-scoring and close, and you just know Allen or Mahomes will have the ball late with a chance to win. And this year, the defenses will be ready.

Pick: Under 46 (-110)

For more NFL picks, check out Action Network's NFL Divisional Round Playoffs: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.

The One Stat to Know About Chiefs vs Bills

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes is 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.

For more NFL betting stats, check out Action Network's NFL Divisional Round Playoffs Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson