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NFC Championship Notes



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AFC Championship

NFC Championship (FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET)
Green Bay (12-6 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) at Atlanta (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS)

Line Movement: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Atlanta -4 and the number jumped as high as 5 ½ but settled back down to the opener. The total was sent out at 58 ½ and moved up quickly before finally settling between 60 and 61. CRIS, a major global betting shop, opened Atlanta -5 with a total of 60 1/2. As of late Sunday, they’re holding the Falcons -4 (-115) with a total of 60.

Green Bay Road Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS
Atlanta Home Record: 6-3 SU, 6-4 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams met in Week 8 from Atlanta and the Falcons came away with a 33-32 decision but failed to cover as three-point home favorites. Green Bay led 24-19 at halftime and held a 32-26 lead late in the fourth quarter before Atlanta answered with a 75-yard game-winning touchdown drive that ended with an 11-yard passing score from quarterback Matt Ryan. There were no turnovers in the game that saw seven passing touchdowns, three from Ryan and four from Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.

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Despite losing the first regular season meeting, Rodgers has gone 4-2 in his career versus the Falcons and that includes a 48-21 victory in the 2010 playoffs at Atlanta when he completed 31-of-36 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns. Ryan is 3-3 in his career against Green Bay, one of the wins coming against a Packers team that didn’t have Rodgers in the lineup.

Playoff Notes: Including last week’s 34-31 win over Dallas, the Packers are now 10-6 in the playoffs with Rodgers at QB. He’s gone 6-4 in games away from home in the postseason and three of the losses came in overtime. Atlanta improved to 2-4 in the postseason with Ryan under center after the team defeated Seattle 36-20 last Saturday in the Divisional Playoff round. While the quarterback has taken some heat in his career, the four playoff losses came against opponents that went onto the Super Bowl and two of them captured the title with one of them being Green Bay in the 2010 edition.

Total Notes: According to VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence and his archives, the highest NFL postseason total came in 2012 when New Orleans defeated Detroit 45-28 and the game went 'over' (59.5). While this will likely go down as the highest postseason total you’ll ever see, it’s deserving of the number and it’s hard to argue for the ‘under’ in this spot. Atlanta has watched the ‘over’ go 9-0 at the Georgia Dome this season behind the league’s top scoring offense at 33.9 points per game. Green Bay has watched the ‘over’ go 7-2 on the road and it enters this game on a 6-0 run to the high side behind an offense averaging 34.8 PPG in its last six.

The Falcons have seen the 'over' go 5-1 in six playoff games with Ryan at quarterback, which includes a 4-0 mark in Atlanta. The offense averaged 28.5 PPG in those games. Green Bay has seen the 'over' go 7-3 in 10 road playoff games with Rodgers at QB and the club has never been held under 20 points during this span.

NFC Championship Notes: The favorite has gone 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in the last four NFC title games. Green Bay is 1-1 in its last two trips to the title game, losing in 2014 at Seattle and defeating Chicago in the 2010 playoffs. The Falcons made a trip to the 2012 NFC Championship and dropped a 28-24 decision to San Francisco from the Georgia Dome. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four NFC title games.

NFC Championship (1970-2015)
Year Matchup Line Score ATS Result
2015-16 Arizona at Carolina Carolina (-3) (47) Carolina 49 Arizona 15 Favorite-Over
2014-15 Green Bay at Seattle Seattle -8.5 (45) Seattle 28 Green Bay 22 (OT) Underdog-Over
2013-14 San Francisco at Seattle Seattle -3.5 (40.5) Seattle 23 San Francisco 17 Favorite-Under
2012-13 San Francisco at Atlanta San Francisco -3.5 (48) San Francisco 28 Atlanta 24 Favorite-Over
2011-12 N.Y. Giants at San Francisco San Francisco -2 (40.5) N.Y. Giants 20 San Francisco 17 (OT) Underdog-Under
2010-11 Green Bay at Chicago Green Bay -3.5 (42) Green Bay 21 Chicago 14 Favorite-Under
2009-10 Minnesota at New Orleans New Orleans -4 (54) New Orleans 31 Minnesota 28 (OT) Underdog-Over
2008-09 Philadelphia at Arizona Philadelphia -3.5 (47) Arizona 32 Philadelphia 25 Underdog-Over
2007-08 N.Y. Giants at Green Bay Green Bay -8 (41) N.Y. Giants 23 Green Bay 20 (OT) Underdog-Over
2006-07 New Orleans at Chicago Chicago -2.5 (42.5) Chicago 34 New Orleans 14 Favorite-Over
2005-06 Carolina at Seattle Seattle -3.5 (43.5) Seattle 34 Carolina 14 Favorite-Over
2004-05 Atlanta at Philadelphia Philadelphia -5.5 (37.5) Philadelphia 27 Atlanta 10 Favorite-Under
2003-04 Carolina at Philadelphia Philadelphia -4 (36.5) Carolina 14 Philadelphia 3 Underdog-Under
2002-03 Tampa Bay at Philadelphia Philadelphia -4 (34) Tampa Bay 27 Philadelphia 10 Underdog-Under
2001-02 Philadelphia at St. Louis St. Louis -10.5 (49) St. Louis 29 Philadelphia 24 Underdog-Over
2000-01 Minnesota at N.Y. Giants N.Y. Giants -2.5 (42) N.Y. Giants 41 Minnesota Favorite-Under
1999-00 Tampa Bay at St. Louis St. Louis -14.5 (44) St. Louis 11 Tampa Bay 6 Underdog-Under
1998-99 Atlanta at Minnesota Minnesota -10.5 (55) Atlanta 30 Minnesota 27 (OT) Underdog-Over
1997-98 Green Bay at San Francisco Green Bay -2.5 (44) Green Bay 23 San Francisco 10 Favorite-Under
1996-97 Carolina at Green Bay Green Bay -12.5 (38) Green Bay 30 Carolina 13 Favorite-Over
1995-96 Green Bay at Dallas Dallas -8.5 (50) Dallas 38 Green Bay 27 Favorite-Over
1994-95 Dallas at San Francisco San Francisco -7.5 (48) San Francisco 38 Dallas 28 Favorite-Over
1993-94 San Francisco at Dallas Dallas -3 (47.5) Dallas 38 San Francisco 21 Favorite-Over
1992-93 Dallas at San Francisco San Francisco -4 (37) Dallas 30 San Francisco 20 Underdog-Over
1991-92 Detroit at Washington Washington -13 (43) Washington 41 Detroit 10 Favorite-Over
1990-91 N.Y. Giants at San Francisco San Francisco -8 (37) N.Y. Giants 15 San Francisco 10 Underdog-Under
1989-90 L.A. Rams at San Francisco San Francisco -7 (46) San Francisco 30 L.A. Rams 3 Favorite-Under
1988-89 San Francisco at Chicago Chicago -1 (34.5) San Francisco 28 Chicago 3 Underdog-Under
1987-88 Minnesota at Washington Washington -3.5 (45) Washington 17 Minnesota 10 Favorite-Under
1986-87 Washington at N.Y. Giants N.Y. Giants -7.5 N.Y. Giants 17 Washington 0 Favorite
1985-86 L.A. Rams at Chicago Chicago -10.5 Chicago 24 L.A. Rams 0 Favorite
1984-85 Chicago at San Francisco San Francisco -9 San Francisco 23 Chicago 0 Favorite
1983-84 San Francisco at Washington Washington -10.5 Washington 24 San Francisco 21 Underdog
1982-83 Dallas at Washington Dallas -2 Washington 31 Dallas 17 Underdog
1981-82 Dallas at San Francisco San Francisco -3 San Francisco 28 Dallas 27 Underdog
1980-81 Dallas at Philadelphia Dallas -1 Philadelphia 20 Dallas 7 Underdog
1979-80 L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay L.A. Rams -3.5 L.A. Rams 9 Tampa Bay 0 Favorite
1978-79 Dallas at L.A. Rams Dallas -3.5 Dallas 28 L.A. Rams 0 Favorite
1977-78 Minnesota at Dallas Dallas -11.5 Dallas 23 Minnesota 6 Favorite
1976-77 L.A. Rams at Minnesota Minnesota -4.5 Minnesota 24 L.A. Rams 13 Favorite
1975-76 Dallas at L.A. Rams L.A. Rams -6 Dallas 37 L.A. Rams 7 Underdog
1974-75 L.A. Rams at Minnesota Minnesota -4 Minnesota 14 L.A. Rams 10 Push
1973-74 Minnesota at Dallas Dallas -1 Minnesota 27 Dallas 10 Underdog
1972-73 Dallas at Washington Washington -3 Washington 26 Dallas 3 Favorite
1971-72 San Francisco at Dallas Dallas -7.5 Dallas 14 San Francisco 3 Favorite
1970-71 Dallas at San Francisco San Francisco -4 Dallas 17 San Francisco 10 Underdog

  
 
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