Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Sept. 21, 2021

Joe Williams
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The third week of NFL regular season action sees a lot more divisional matchups, including a key battle in the AFC West Division. The Chargers and Chiefs split a pair of regular-season matchups in 2020, with L.A. covering each battle. It's the first game inside the division for each of these sides, and it's a key game with both the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders each entering Week 3 with unblemished records.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 34, Chargers 27

Best Bet: Chiefs -6.5

Best Bet: Over 54.5

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

The Los Angeles Chargers opened with a pair of games against the NFC East, traveling to meet and beat the Washington Football Team in Week 1, while returning home to lose to the Dallas Cowboys in a heartbreaker in front of fans for the first time at SoFi Stadium in Week 2.

The Kansas City Chiefs had a close call in Week 1 against the Cleveland Browns in a marquee matchup, winning 33-29, although they failed to cover that night. And then they had another marquee matchup on Sunday Night Football, coming up short against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, 36-35. It was a memorable matchup, but it was very forgettable if you were holding a money line ticket, or laying the points with the Chiefs, as the defense really folded in the end.

These teams met twice last season like they always do, although one game was more important than the other. In Week 2 the teams met in SoCal, with the Chiefs coming out victorious by a 23-20 score in overtime, although L.A. covered there. In Week 17, with playoff seeding all locked in, the Chiefs rested many key personnel, and the Chargers won 38-21 at Arrowhead to cover as seven-point favorites. The Chiefs will certainly not be resting any key personnel this time around, and they're going to be awfully angry coming off their first setback of the campaign. Look for Kansas City to fire out of the box early, and perhaps lead this one wire-to-wire.

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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds

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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Resources

• Matchup: AFC West
• Date: Sunday, September 26, 2021
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Location: Kansas City, Missouri
• TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report
• Super Bowl 56 Betting

Los Angeles Chargers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 1-1
• ATS: 1-1
• O/U: 0-2
• ATS - Home: 0-1
• ATS - Away: 1-0

Last season, QB Justin Herbert took the reins of the offense early in the season from caretaker Tyrod Taylor, and he showed the rest of the NFL why the scouts and management were so high on him. He was the consummate pro, turning things around for the Chargers and giving them a chance to win every week. If not for some bad bounces, gaffes on defense and other assorted issues, things could have been tremendously different for the Chargers. They were losing close games week in and week out.

This season the Chargers have had some better fortune already, gutting out a close game in Washington, which is likely one they would have found a way to lose in 2020. Of course, they lose on a last-second field goal last week to Dallas, so there is still work to be done.

However, the defense has been sharp to date, allowing just 339.0 total yards per game to rank 13th, and they are fourth in the league with just 177.0 yards per game through the air despite facing the dynamic QB Dak Prescott last week. The number figures to be put to the test against Patrick Mahomes, but they did hold him down in Week 2 last week. They're allowing just 18.0 PPG, good for seventh in the NFL, although again, the sample size i still rather small.

On offense, they have 323.5 passing yards per game to rank fourth, and 416.0 total yards per game to rank fifth. That hasn't translated to many points, however, as they're 27th in the league with just 18.5 PPG. They need to curb the turnovers, and be a little more efficient in the red zone, too.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 1-1
• ATS: 0-2
• O/U: 2-0
• ATS - Home: 0-1
• ATS - Away: 0-1

Mahomes passed for 343 yards last week with three touchdowns, and each of the scoring strikes were good for big yardage. He hit WR Demarcus Robinson for a 33-yard score, WR Byron Pringle for a 40-yard touchdown and he connected with TE Travis Kelce for a 46-yard jaunt to the end zone. In fact, after three quarters, Kansas City led 35-24, and it looked like things were going to end up in its favor.

The Chargers pass defense has been stout, so Mahomes will certainly have his work cut out. But, he will be at home, and the hostile crowd will work against the Chargers defense and in his favor, certainly.

On defense, the Chiefs had some trouble stopping the run game, particularly Jackson. Of course, that happens to a lot of teams, as he is just different. They need not worry about Herbert juking and jiving all over the field, breaking the ankles of defenders, and RB Austin Ekeler left last week's game with an ankle issue, although he went through a full practice Wednesday and appears to be in line to play. Look for Kansas City to have its way against L.A., especially at home, perhaps with its most complete defensive effort of the season.

The Los Angeles Chargers have gone UNDER the point total in eight straight games when playing in September. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Los Angeles Chargers

• Record: 1-1
• Division Standing: 3rd - AFC West
• Points Scored: 37 (27th)
• Points Allowed: 36 (7th)
• PS/G: 18.5
• PA/G: 18

Inside the Stats - Kansas City Chiefs

• Record: 1-1
• Division Standing: 3rd - AFC West
• Points Scored: 68 (3rd)
• Points Allowed: 65 (28th)
• PS/G: 34
• PA/G: 32.5

Key Players to Watch

• LAC: Justin Herbert - QB (62/88, 675 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT)
• LAC: Mike Williams - WR (15 catches, 173 yards, 2 TD)
• KNC: Patrick Mahomes - QB (51/67, 680 yards, 6 TD, INT)
• KNC: Travis Kelce - TE (13 catches, 185 yards, 3 TD)

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Conclusion

It won't take much for the Chiefs to get better defensively. They have allowed 29 points to the Browns, and 36 points to the Ravens. But they will be better in this one, simply because the Chargers don't have the superstars on offense to roll up big points. They're more methodical, although WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams always have to be accounted for.

I expect the Chiefs to be very mad after letting last week's game slip away, and they'll take it out on the Chargers early. Los Angeles should be able to get back into the game, and they always seem to do so against Kansas City. In fact, they're 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings, and 4-1-1 ATS in the past six trips to K.C. The road team is also 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings in this series. But I am bucking the trends, although I might change my tune if the Bolts were catching seven and a hook. I think the Chiefs play their most complete game of the season, not only offensively, but defensively.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends

• TBD

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