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Last Updated Oct 15, 2021, 21:00 PM

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Predictions, Odds, Picks

Oct. 17, 2021
Thom Cunningham
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

An AFC West meeting between the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders is set for late afternoon Sunday. Kick off for this crucial divisional game is set for 4:05 p.m. ET and will air on CBS from Empower Field at Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado.

Score Prediction

Denver 21, Las Vegas 17

Best Bets

Under

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Predictions

The UNDER seems to be the safest play in this game, for many reasons. Aside from the turmoil in the Vegas organization right now, the offense has sputtered lately and dropped to 19th in points per game at only 22.6. For the talent the Radiers' offense has in Derek Carr, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow they should average more than three touchdowns per game.

With Gruden now gone, the offense hits the road to a dangerous defense in Denver. The Broncos are only allowing 15.2 points per game, so Vegas touching 21 to 24 would be a huge win for this Raider offense. Consider the trends as well, as the point total has gone UNDER in eight of the last nine games played between both teams. Also, the point total has gone UNDER in five of the last six meetings played in Denver while Denver has gone UNDER in 17 of its last 25 games played in Mile High Stadium.

Between the trends, the Denver defense point allowance and the Raiders inconsistent scoring (along with the turmoil) seems to indicate the point total staying UNDER. The spread is a bit tricky, as the Broncos offense isn't elite by any means with just 20.4 points per game. The trends do indicate Denver covering the spread however, as the Raiders have failed to cover four of five games on the road while Denver has covered four of six games overall.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC West
  • Date: Sunday, October 17, 2021
  • Venue: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium
  • Location: Denver, Colorado
  • TV-Time: CBS - 4:25 p.m. ET



Las Vegas Raiders Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-2
  • ATS: 2-3
  • O/U: 2-3
  • ATS - Home: 1-2
  • ATS - Away: 1-1

The Raiders will need the offense to elevate its game with the departure of Gruden, or the defense will need to create takeaways and bad field possession for Denver in order to win this road game. Carr's inconsistency is still relevant, but has earned the benefit of the doubt to perform well in any game. Waller has seemingly disappeared since his Week 1 dominance, as it would be nice to see him step up on a consistent basis as well. Granted, he was the victim of an awful 'taunting' penalty in prime-time and had a spectacular touchdown grab.

With Carr and Waller, however, the spectacular plays need to be more frequent and often not just in-game but week-by-week as well. Renfrow is becoming one of the more reliable receivers in the game, and uses his small size to fit smoothly into passing lanes and zone windows. Between Renfrow and Waller, the two have 56 catches, 624 yards and four touchdowns. One could argue those numbers could be better.

Aside from the top three needing to step up big time on Sunday, the defense will need to pressure Teddy Bridgewater into bad throws while also stopping both Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams on the ground. The Raiders don't stop the run very well, so players like Denzel Perryman and Maxx Crosby will need to target the back field as importantly as rushing the quarterback.

Denver Broncos Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 3-2
  • ATS: 3-2
  • O/U: 1-4
  • ATS - Home: 1-1
  • ATS - Away: 2-1

The offense will need to play well in order to avoid a home upset, as the defense should be fine for a majority of the game. The Broncos have given up over 23 points in two straight weeks after giving up 13 or less the first three however. Keep in mind the Giants, Jets and Jaguars were the first three opponents for Denver before giving up points to the Steelers and the Ravens after.

Vegas is better than the first three opponents for Denver, so it's understandable if a bettor is skiddish on Denver's defense performing well on Sunday against a talented offense. Playing at home against a team in turmoil might smell blood in the water for Denver though, as Von Miller will be coming for Carr.

This game is a true measuring stick for the Broncos' defense, failing to allow 100 rushing yards in its first three games before allowing over 100 to Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Overall, the Broncos' defense ranks Top 10 in both passing and rushing yards allowed but one has to wonder if the numebrs are inflated from the first three games of the season. We will find out Sunday.

Whether or not Denver's good defense is a myth or a fact might not matter though, because Bridgewater's play will need to be good enough to pull away from a potentially lethal Vegas offense. He takes care of the ball with only one interception on the year, while completing 69.8% of his passes. He will need help though, as Gordon and Williams will have to provide a good ground game - each averaging 4.6 yards per carry but haven't scored much this season.

The wide receivers will help Bridegwater too, one of the more underrated cores in football. Both Cortland Sutton and Tim Patrick average 13.7 yards per catch or more to go along with a combined 679 receiving yards. Noah Fant is also a great safety valve for Bridgewater in short yardage situations.

Inside the Stats - Las Vegas Raiders

  • Record: 3-2
  • Division Standing: 2nd - AFC West
  • Points Scored: 113
  • Points Allowed: 120
  • PS/G: 22.6 (19th)
  • PA/G: 24 (17th)

Inside the Stats - Denver Broncos

  • Record: 3-2
  • Division Standing: 2nd - AFC West
  • Points Scored: 102
  • Points Allowed: 76
  • PS/G: 20.4 (24th)
  • PA/G: 15.2 (2nd)

Key Players to Watch

  • LVR: Derek Carr - QB (131/205, 1,605 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT)
  • LVR: Hunter Renfrow - WR (28 catches, 305 yards, 2 TD)
  • DEN: Teddy Bridgewater - QB (104/149, 1,180 yards, 7 TD, INT)
  • DEN: Von Miller - LB (15 tackles, 4.5 sacks)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Betting Conclusion

The UNDER seems to be the play here, for two offenses averaging less than 24 points per game and the home favorite featuring a defense that allows the third-fewest points in the league. If uneasy on the point total, it seems Denver should win and cover the spread - although the -4-point spread feels more like a push. If you can get -3.5 that would obviously be better.

Denver has covered the spread in four of its last six games, while Las Vegas has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five road games. The only issue with Denver's spread, besides the 4-point spread that will prevent Denver from covering a FG win, is that the Broncos have failed to cover the spread in six of seven games when facing Las Vegas.

There is more conviction in both the trends and stats for the point total to go UNDER rather than Denver covering a spread that surpasses a FG. To each their own, but the UNDER has more smart odds to play on.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Betting Trends

  • Las Vegas has failed to cover the spread in eight of its last 11 games.
  • Las Vegas has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five road games.
  • Denver has gone UNDER in 17 of its last 25 home games.
  • Denver has covered the spread in four of its last six games.


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