Last Updated Oct 23, 2022, 1:23 PM

NFL - Total Talk - Week 7

The 2022 National Football League regular season heads into Week 6, as we steam into the month of October. We're starting to see the leaves turning bright colors in the northern cities, and there is also a chill in the air. Remember, the autumn wind is a pirate. That's easily one of my favorite NFL pieces of music, etc.

Anyway, if you were an UNDER bettors, at least during the primetime games last week, you feeling good. In those games under the lights, and the marquee game between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs, we had a lot of lower than expected scores, finishing 10-4 or 11-3 depending on the closing line at your shop.

The UNDER continues to dominate through the early portion of the season going 58-35-1 (61.1%) to date, and especially so at night. The UNDER is now 14-5 (73.7%) in 19 primetime games.

Thursday Night Football

New Orleans at Arizona: The Saints head into this one with three consecutive OVER results, going for 25, 39 and 26 during the span, while yielding 28, 32 and 30. In fact, New Orleans has coughed up 20 or more points in all six of its games this season

The Cardinals are on an unexpected 5-0 UNDER run, but this team has scored 21 or more points on three occasions. It scored a season-low 9 points last time out in Seattle. The defense has been surprising good, allowing 20 or fewer points in each of the past four games.

Other interesting nuggets, the Saints have cashed the OVER in four straight in the month of October, but the UNDER is 12-3-1 in the past 16 appearances on a Thursday. For the Cards, the UNDER is 5-0 in the past five in October, 4-1 n the past five against losing teams, and 16-5 in the past 21 following a straight-up loss.


Division Over-Under Notes

We had four divisional matchups in Week 6, with the UNDER going 3-1. That's been par for the course for the entire season, as the UNDER is now 24-8 (75.0%) through the first six weeks of NFL.

In Week 7, we have three divisional matchups on tap, and for the first time this season none of those games fall during a primetime slot.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: The Colts erupted for a season-high 34 points in a win over Jacksonville, a team which had previously shut out Indianapolis back in Week 2. In fact, the UNDER was a perfect 5-for-5 before Indy's Week 6 offensive explosion, as the team finally figured out how to work in WR Michael Pittman Jr. to a prominent role for the first time since Week 1.

The Titans are coming off a bye. Prior to the rest, the Titans had scored 21, 24 and 24, going UNDER in each of the past two. The defense has been better, allowing 17 in each of the past two outings, too.

The Colts have cashed the UNDER in 10 of the past 11, with that lone OVER last week. The UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven inside the division, while going 4-0 in the past four against winning teams, and 6-0 in the past six on the road.

The Titans have cashed the UNDER in eight of the past 11, while going 6-1 in the past seven at home. However, the OVER is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Nashville.


Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Buccaneers have hit the UNDER in five of six games overall, scored 18, 21, 31, 12, 20 and 19 so far this season. The defense has done its job, allowing 15 or fewer points in four of the six outings, and 20 or fewer in five of six. In divisional games this season, QB Tom Brady and the Bucs have cashed the UNDER both times, averaging 20.5 PPG on offense, while allowing 12.5 PPG on defense.

The dreary season continues for the Panthers. Last week, Carolina was dumped 24-10, and their only touchdown was thanks to a defensive score. QB P.J. Walker was injured in his first start taking over for the injured QB Baker Mayfield, and now interim head coach Steve Wilks has a conundrum. QB Jacob Eason could potentially be recalled from the practice squad to start, or perhaps QB Sam Darnold (shoulder) is worked in after being injured in preseason. Either way, it figures to be ugly yet again. It seems like a certainty that Carolina starts its third different QB in just seven games.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six NFC South games for the Bucs, and 5-1 in the past six on the road. The UNDER is 6-2 in Carolina's past eight divisional games, and 4-1 in the past five overall.


Cleveland at Baltimore: The Browns scored a season-low 15 points last week, while allowing a season-high 38 points. Those were both anomalies compared to the team's performance in the other five games, but the total result remains the same - another OVER. The UNDER has hit in just one of Cleveland's six games, and the OVER cashed in its only divisional game to date. The UNDER is 4-1 in Cleveland's past five on the road, however.

The Ravens are on a 3-0 UNDER run, going for 20, 19 and 20 across the past three games, while the defense has allowed 24, 17 and 23. The UNDER is 6-2 in Baltimore's past eight going back to last season, while going 4-1 in the past five at home. The UNDER is also 8-3 in the past 11 meetings in Baltimore.


Conference Angles

We had five conference matchups in Week 6, and for UNDER outpaced the OVER 4-1. That halted a four-week run where the OVER had been equal to or greater than the UNDER in conference games this season.

In Week 7, we have six more conference matchups, including the Saints-Cardinals TNF game (see above), the Steelers-Dolphins SNF game (see below). Through five weeks the UNDER is 25-24 (51.0%) in conference play.

Detroit at Dallas: The Lions have had two weeks to think about their ugly 29-0 loss and UNDER result in New England in Week 5. After going for 35, 36, 24 and 45 in the first four outings, the Lions posted the inexplicable goose egg. It might not be much better against the stout defense of the Cowboys.

The Cowboys cashed the UNDER at some shops last week, depending when you got your bet down, but the line closed at 42.5, so we'll call their 26-17 loss an OVER. It was the first in six games after the UNDER went 4-0-1 in the first five weeks.

The UNDER is 7-3 in Detroit's past 10 road games, while the UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven against winning teams. The UNDER is 5-0 in the past five at Jerry World for the 'Boys, too.


Green Bay at Washington: The Packers scored just 10 points in Week 6, the lowest since Week 1 when QB Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay managed just 7. The UNDER is 4-2 in six games overall, while going 2-0 on the road in two outings.

The Commanders opened with a pair of OVER results, but the offense has stumbled with 8, 10, 17 and 12 in the past four games, all UNDER results. Now, QB Carson Wentz is out with fractured finger which required surgery, so he is out 4-to-6 weeks. In steps backup QB Taylor Heinicke.

The UNDER went 9-2 in Heinicke's final 11 appearances in 2021, including a 24-10 loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field in Week 7 opposite Rodgers.


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N.Y. Jets at Denver: The Jets defense had its best and most unexpected performance of the season, going into Lambeau Field and holding the Packers to just 10 points last week in a win and UNDER result. The UNDER is now 3-3 overall, with the Jets defense improving in each of the past five games. New York allowed a season-high 30 points in Week 2, before allowing 27, 20, 17 and 10. Now, it faces the low-scoring Broncos.

Broncos QB Russell Wilson added a hamstring injury to his laundry list of aches and pains. He entered last week with a partial torn latissimus muscle, and then he pulled a hamstring in Monday's loss at L.A. Chargers, an UNDER result. The injury was bad enough to warrant an MRI, and he is now considered day-to-day. If Wilson is forced to sit, QB Brett Rypien might be forced into action.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five for the Jets following a cover, although the OVER is 21-9 in the past 30 against a losing team, and 12-3-1 in the past 16 in Week 7, although that's a bit of a ridiculous trend.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six games for Denver, while going 4-1 in the past five at home, and 10-4 in the past 14 against winning teams. These teams met last season, with the Broncos winning 26-0. QB Teddy Bridgewater, now with the Dolphins, started that game. Still, it's worth mentioning.


Houston at Las Vegas: The Texans were on a bye last week, resting after a 13-6 win at Jacksonville in Week 5 when the UNDER easily connected. The Texans have scored 20 or fewer points in four of five games overall, while the defense has allowed 20 or fewer points in three of its games, going 3-2 to the UNDER. The UNDER is 8-2 in the past 10 road games, while going 7-2 in the past nine games following a cover.

The Raiders were also on a bye after a MNF loss in Week 5 at Kansas City, a third straight OVER result. The OVER is 6-2 in the past eight games for the Raiders following a bye, while going 4-1 in the past five meetings with the Texans.


Non-Conference Angles

The Week 6 schedule saw five AFC-NFC matchups, and the UNDER was a stellar 4-1. On the season, the UNDER is now 12-8-1 (60.0%) across 21 intra-conference matchups. In Week 7 we have five AFC-NFC matchups, including the Bears-Patriots MNF game (see below).

N.Y. Giants at Jacksonville: The Giants head down to Northeast Florida looking to stay on track. The big news is that the Giants are 5-1 SU/ATS, but the UNDER is 4-1-1, and that's what we're more concerned about in this column. The offense has averaged 25.5 PPG, up a tick after posting 21, 19, 16 and 20 in the first four outings. The defense has allowed 23 or fewer points in all six outings to date. The UNDER is 2-0 in two games against the AFC so far.

The Jaguars have been up and down all season, going for 22, 24, 38, 21, 6 and 27, while allowing 28, 0, 10, 29, 13 and 34. It's hard to know which team is going to show up. The OVER is 2-0 so far in Jacksonville's two games against NFC East teams, averaging 21.5 PPG while allowing 28.5 PPG.


Atlanta at Cincinnati: The Falcons are on to Cincinnati, and they're on a 3-0 UNDER run after hitting the OVER at a 3-0 clip to start the season. The Falcons offense has scored 23, 15 and 28 during the 3-0 UNDER streak, while allowing 20, 21 and 14. It has faced just one AFC team so far, winning 23-20 against the Cleveland Browns with an UNDER result in Week 4 at home. The UNDER is 7-1 in the past eight following a SU win, and 7-3 in the past 10 following a cover.

The Bengals entered last week on a 5-0 UNDER run, one of just two teams yet to experience an OVER, but Cincinnati won 30-26 in a high-scoring game in New Orleans to easily hit the OVER. It is 5-0 to the UNDER vs. AFC, and 1-0 to the OVER vs. NFC, for what it's worth. The UNDER is 10-1 in Cincinnati's past 11 games overall, and 4-0 in the past four at home.


Kansas City at San Francisco: The Chiefs offense vs. the 49ers defense is what will be featured here in the late window. Kansas City has scored 29.8 PPG to rank No. 1 in the NFL, while San Francisco has allowed 14.8 PPG to rank No. 2 in the NFL.

The 49ers have cashed the UNDER in five of six games, including an UNDER in their only game against an AFC opponent this season. San Francisco has allowed 19, 7, 11, 9, 15 and 28 in six outings to date, while scoring 14 or fewer points in three of six games overall.

The OVER is 6-1 in the past seven road games for the Chiefs, while going 10-4 in the past 14 games overall. The UNDER is 12-2 in the past 14 games overall for the 49ers, while going 4-0 in the past four games at home, and 5-0 in the past five against winning teams.


Seattle at L.A. Chargers: The Seahawks scored just 19 points in a win over the Cardinals last week, cashing the UNDER for the first time in four games. Previous to that, the Seahawks had averaged 40.0 PPG in the prior two games while allowing 42.0 PPG. Seattle also allowed 27 or more points in the four games prior to Week 6.

The Chargers saw the UNDER cash in Monday's game against the Broncos, snapping a 3-0 OVER run. The defense allowed a season-best 16 points in the OT win, and the OVER-UNDER is now 3-3. The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven at home for the Bolts, while going 9-3 in the past 12 games overall.


Primetime Notes

The UNDER was 3-0 across the three Week 6 primetime games, and the UNDER is now 14-5 (73.7%) through the first six NFL weekends. The UNDER produced at a 25-19-1 (56.9%) clip in 46 primetime games during the 2021 regular season.

Sunday Night Football Notes

Pittsburgh at Miami: The Steelers hit the road for Miami, and they will turn back to rookie QB Kenny Pickett. He was knocked out of the Tampa Bay game due to concussion, but he is out of protocol and practiced in full Wednesday. Head coach Mike Tomlin confirmed the rookie will start SNF.

The UNDER is 2-0 in the past two games for the Steelers, with Pittsburgh posting just 20, 3, 20, 17 and 14 across the past five outings. The UNDER is 4-2 overall for the Steelers, who have allowed 20 or fewer points in three of six games. The UNDER is 2-1 for Pittsburgh on the road this season, too.

The Dolphins also get a QB back from concussion protocol, as Tua Tagovailoa has been cleared. We last saw Tua after that brutal hit in Cincinnati which left him on the ground seizing up. The UNDER is 3-1 in his four starts overall, and 3-1 in the past four games for Miami, too. At home, Miami has cashed the UNDER at a 3-0 clip, averaging 19.0 PPG while allowing 16.7 PPG.


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Monday Night Football Notes

Chicago at New England: The Bears and Patriots meet in a Super Bowl XX rematch. The Bears sure would love to have that 1985 defense back, although the 2022 version isn't too shabby. Chicago allowed just 12 points last week in a loss to the Commanders on TNF, and the UNDER is 4-2 overall for Chicago, with the D allowing just 178.7 passing yards per game to rank 3rd in the NFL, while allowing only 19.7 PPG to check in 12th.

The Patriots exploded for a season-high 38 points last week, and the offense has really improved under rookie QB Bailey Zappe. There might even be a QB controversy brewing in Foxboro, harkening back to the days when QB Drew Bledsoe was knocked out, and a late-round rookie named Brady came on. That's what has happened with Zappe over the injured QB Mac Jones, who might have a fight to get his job back.

Since coming into the Green Bay OT loss in Week 4, the offense has posted 33.5 PPG in Zappe's two starts, while the defense has allowed a total of 15 points. That's a winning combination.


Fearless Predictions

Last week's predictions were just so-so, as it was a 2-2 (-10) week. Overall, we're now at 10-14 (-440) through the first six weekends. Let's build back that bankroll for Week 7 and down the stretch toward Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona on Feb. 12, 2023.

  • Best Over: OVER 45.5 Browns at Ravens
  • Best Under: UNDER 47.5 Falcons at Bengals
  • Best First-Half Total: OVER 22.5 Browns at Ravens

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7, +135)

  • UNDER 54.5 Falcons at Bengals
  • OVER 38.5 Browns at Ravens
  • UNDER 55.5 Chiefs at 49ers

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