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Super Bowl 58 Prediction, Picks, Odds | Chiefs vs 49ers

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read

Here's everything you need to know about the Chiefs vs 49ers Picks, Prediction, and Odds for Super Bowl 58.

Well, the big game is finally here. The Kansas City Chiefs will meet the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday, February 11. Coverage begins from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

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Chiefs vs 49ers Prediction & Odds for Super Bowl 58

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

Many of this year’s playoff games have been very difficult to predict – with several different factors tipping the scales in totally opposite directions in the eyes of bettors throughout the postseason.

Contrary to the rest of the playoffs though, the Super Bowl matchup poses a rather simple question. Do you trust the dominant regular season data presented by the 49ers? Or do you trust the championship pedigree of the Chiefs after knocking off the top-two seeds in the AFC?

Personally, I have way more faith in KC – but that isn’t necessarily because the Chiefs’ recent track record has instilled me with newfound confidence in their ability to win big games. My stance on this matchup primarily stems from my distrust in Brock Purdy and the 49ers as the level of pressure bubbles to an all-time high for their young QB.

San Francisco absolutely dominated ⅔ of its regular season games. The Niners locked up the top seed in the NFC a week early with a record of 12-4 through 16 games, with 11 of those 12 victories coming by margins of 10-plus points. 

In the playoffs, however, SF has played eight quarters of football, and four of them have been quite bad. In the Divisional Round, the 49ers went to the fourth quarter trailing Green Bay by a score of 21-14, yet they were saved down the stretch by a 52-yard field goal and a late TD drive.

Believe it or not though, the Niners played even worse in the first half of the Conference Round and still managed to escape with a victory. 

The Niners went to halftime of the NFC Championship trailing Detroit by a score of 24-7, but thanks to a series of unfortunate events for the Lions and a handful of truly poor coaching decisions by Dan Campbell, SF has stumbled all the way to a Super Bowl appearance and a date with the defending champs this Sunday – despite appearing incredibly vulnerable since mid-December.

It seems like the moment has been too big for Purdy the last three times SF has stepped into the spotlight in high-pressure situations. He threw four INTs in a loss to Baltimore in Week 16, and then clearly felt the heat early-and-often in both of his playoff starts as he spent the first half of both contests sailing the ball over the heads of open receivers and missing short range targets before eventually settling down and leading the Niners to a pair of comeback wins and a chance to dance on the Super Bowl stage.

Well, this is his shot to prove all the naysayers wrong – myself included. Maybe Purdy finally extinguished the last of his playoff jitters in the Conference Round against Detroit. But if his performances in SF’s last three “big games” are any indication of what’s to come, we’re destined to see another slow start from the Niners offense – and they can’t afford to get put behind the 8-ball early against KC.

Look, it’s the Super Bowl. I can’t guarantee anything. This is a matchup between two really good teams, and neither squad lucked into this position. The 49ers were the top dog for most of the season, which is why they walked a favorable path through the playoffs and find themselves tagged as short favorites again in this spot. But a lot has changed in the last five weeks, and at this point, it seems to be pretty clear that the wrong team is favored in this matchup.

The way I see it, the Chiefs own advantages over SF in the three most important aspects of any football game – QB, head coach, and defense. That said, I can’t put on a jersey and win the game for them. Weirder things have happened. The Niners aren’t exactly a bunch of pushovers, and the Chiefs are no strangers to playing down to their competition. But what I can do, is tell you who has the upper-hand in this matchup – and the answer is KC.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, 49ers 20
Best Bet: Chiefs ML (+110)

SF @ KC Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
-2.5 -118 -0.5 -105 -1.5 -110 -0.5 even -0.5 even -0.5 -105 -1.5 -115 -1.5 -104 -2.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -115 +1.5 -110 +0.5 -120 +0.5 -120 +0.5 -115 +1.5 -115 +1.5 -121 +2.5 -115  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
o47.5 -110 o23.5 even o23.5 +105 N/A o23 -110 o23.5 -105 o21.5 -130 o23.5 +102 o46.5 -115  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
u47.5 -110 u23.5 -120 u23.5 -125 N/A u23 -110 u23.5 -115 u21.5 even u23.5 -125 u46.5 -105  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
-142 -125 -146 -125 -125 -130 N/A -136 -134  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
+120 +105 +120 +105 +105 +110 N/A +110 +114  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
-2.5 -118 -0.5 -105 +1.5 -140 +0.5 -145 -0.5 -110 N/A +0.5 -120 +1.5 -139 -2.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -115 -1.5 +120 -0.5 +110 +0.5 -110 N/A -0.5 -110 -1.5 +112 +2.5 -115  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
o47.5 -110 o23.5 -110 o23.5 -105 N/A o24.5 +115 N/A o23.5 -115 o23.5 -112 o46.5 -115  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
u47.5 -110 u23.5 -110 u23.5 -115 N/A u24.5 -135 N/A u23.5 -115 u23.5 -113 u46.5 -105  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
-142 -125 -100 -120 N/A N/A N/A -114 -134  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
+120 +105 -116 -105 N/A N/A N/A -108 +114  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
-2.5 -118 -0.5 +115 -1.5 +106 -0.5 even -0.5 +135 -0.5 +124 -0.5 +105 -1.5 +114 -2.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -135 +1.5 -128 +0.5 -120 +0.5 -160 +0.5 -148 +0.5 -135 +1.5 -141 +2.5 -115  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
o47.5 -110 o9.5 -105 o7.5 -116 N/A o9.5 -110 o9.5 -110 o7.5 -110 o9.5 -109 o46.5 -115  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
u47.5 -110 u9.5 -115 u7.5 -106 N/A u9.5 -110 u9.5 -110 u7.5 -120 u9.5 -114 u46.5 -105  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
-142 -135 -154 -130 -110 -125 N/A -150 -134  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
+120 +115 +126 +110 -110 +105 N/A +120 +114  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
-2.5 -118 -0.5 +115 -1.5 +116 -0.5 +115 -0.5 +115 -9.5 -120 -0.5 even -1.5 +123 -2.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -135 +1.5 -142 +0.5 -140 +0.5 -145 +9.5 -110 +0.5 -130 +1.5 -152 +2.5 -115  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
o47.5 -110 o13.5 -120 o10.5 +114 N/A o13.5 -115 o13.5 +105 o13.5 -105 o13.5 -114 o46.5 -115  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
u47.5 -110 u13.5 even u10.5 -138 N/A u13.5 -105 u13.5 -135 u13.5 -125 u13.5 -109 u46.5 -105  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
-142 -120 -120 -115 -110 -118 N/A -118 -134  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
+120 even -102 -105 -110 -102 N/A -106 +114  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
-2.5 -118 -0.5 +140 +1.5 -148 +0.5 -175 -0.5 +130 +0.5 -135 -0.5 +130 +1.5 -152 -2.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -165 -1.5 +122 -0.5 +125 +0.5 -155 -0.5 +114 +0.5 -170 -1.5 +123 +2.5 -115  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
o47.5 -110 o9.5 -135 o3.5 +102 N/A o9.5 -130 o9.5 -120 o9.5 -130 o9.5 -134 o46.5 -115  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
u47.5 -110 u9.5 +115 u3.5 -134 N/A u9.5 even u9.5 even u9.5 even u9.5 +108 u46.5 -105  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
-142 even +108 -110 -110 +110 N/A even -134  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
+120 -120 -132 -110 -110 -130 N/A -124 +114  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
-2.5 -118 -0.5 +115 -1.5 +126 -0.5 +110 -0.5 +115 -0.5 +110 -0.5 +110 -1.5 +120 -2.5 -105  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
+2.5 -104 +0.5 -135 +1.5 -154 +0.5 -135 +0.5 -145 +0.5 -130 +0.5 -140 +1.5 -150 +2.5 -115  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
o47.5 -110 o13.5 -120 o13.5 -116 N/A o13.5 -115 o13.5 -112 o13.5 -115 o13.5 -109 o46.5 -115  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
u47.5 -110 u13.5 even u13.5 -106 N/A u13.5 -105 u13.5 -108 u13.5 -115 u13.5 -114 u46.5 -105  
Final
San Francisco 49ers 101 49ers
-142 -115 -118 -120 -110 -118 N/A -121 -134  
Kansas City Chiefs 102 Chiefs
+120 -105 -104 even -110 -102 N/A -103 +114  

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Super Bowl 58 Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, February 11
Matchup: AFC West vs NFC West
Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Time-TV: CBS, 6:30 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full Super Bowl 58 Odds Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Use our BetMGM bonus code before making your Chiefs vs 49ers pick to get bonus bets!

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

At this point, even the most casual football fans are familiar with the prolonged success of KC with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. The Chiefs have won eight straight division titles, and they’ve participated in five straight AFC Championship Games – while winning two Super Bowls during that span. And historically speaking, you definitely shouldn’t bet against them as underdogs. The Chiefs are 9-3 SU and 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog with Mahomes at QB.

However, the better-kept secret is the fact that Chiefs defense has carried this team all season; not their offense – highlighted by KC ranking 2nd in scoring and 5th in yardage per play on the defensive side of the ball, as opposed to their offense ranking 15th in scoring and 9th in yardage per play.

If you’d like to read more about why the Chiefs are the more trustworthy option in this matchup, continue to the sections below. But there's no need to overthink this one.

Check out our Super Bowl odds for the latest odds for the big game.

San Francisco 49ers Betting Analysis

The tides turned noticeably for the 49ers in Week 16, and they’ve looked like a shell of themselves ever since. In the biggest regular season game of the year, Brock Purdy threw four interceptions in an ugly 33-19 loss to the Ravens on Christmas Day – which seemingly did some major damage to SF’s overall confidence level.

In their following game, the 49ers went to halftime with a narrow 13-10 over Washington before eventually pulling away in a matchup they were 14-point favorites in. 

Then they closed their campaign with a loss to Carson Wentz and the Rams – which gets an asterisk next to it since the 49ers had already locked up the one-seed and elected to rest starters – but any way you slice it, a loss to the Wentz Wagon isn’t exactly a confidence boost – and it’s not like the playoffs have been a walk in the park for SF.

In theory, if the spread for this matchup was Niners +3.5, I might actually be tempted to take the points with SF. Push comes to shove, I think they have a puncher’s chance at winning this game – the better team doesn’t necessarily always win. It’s football. Stuff happens. 

But come on, listing KC as an underdog makes this decision way too easy.

Chiefs vs 49ers Betting Trends

  • The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of SF's last nine games.
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of KC's last six games.
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last five games.
  • The 49ers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games.
  • The 49ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven matchups against KC.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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