Prediction Market Hub for December 2025
Over the last couple of years prediction markets have become all the rage amongst US traders, as they offer fast-paced event-based trading that merge at the intersection of sports trading, investing, and crowd-sourced forecasting.
Our comprehensive prediction market platform hub from provides you with everything you need to know about the booming industry, offering educational insights, the prediction markets app available today, and everything in between. Are you familiar with prediction markets already? Our prediction market odds converter allows users to convert kalshi prices to sports betting american odds.
Whether you are a fan of sports prediction markets, political markets, cultural events, economics, or other areas, we will dive deep into it all. We'll scan what these markets consist of, the current legal landscape, expert strategies for trading event contracts successfully, the best prediction market apps, available bonuses, and everything else you need to know about the prediction market industry.
Let's get this prediction market party started.
TOP PREDICTION MARKETS IN THE US FOR December 2025
| 📈 Prediction Markets | 💰 Bonus | 🚨 Referral Code/Promo Code |
| Kalshi | ||
| Polymarket | TBD - Re-launching legally in the US soon | TBD - Re-launching legally in the US soon |
| Fanatics Markets | TBD - Launched December 2025 | TBD - Launched December 2025 |
| Novig | ||
| ProphetX | ||
| PrizePicks Prediction Markets | No prediction market offer since their markets are in the general PrizePicks app (DFS Offer: | No prediction market code since their markets are in the general PrizePicks app (DFS code: |
| Crypto.com | TBD | TBD |
| Robinhood | TBD | TBD |
| FanDuel Predicts | TBD - Launch is imminent. Meanwhile, here's the FanDuel sportsbook offer: | TBD - Launch is imminent. No promo code is needed for the FanDuel Sportsbook offer. |
WHAT ARE PREDICTION MARKETS?
Prediction market sites represent a fascinating evolution of sports trading operators mixed with financial markets, blending elements of the stock market with speculation on future events.
At their core, real money prediction markets operate by allowing users to buy and sell event contracts, which are binary instruments that resolve to either "yes" or "no" based on the outcome of a real-world event.
Unlike a sports bet, where you pick a side and wait for the market to resolve, prediction market prices fluctuate all the way up until the event ends, meaning you can trade the event contracts in real time with prices fluctuating based on the collective user sentiments.
As an example, imagine sports event contracts on the Super Bowl, where you might buy a "yes" contract stating "Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win?"
That market's contract price is a direct reflection of the market's perceived probability of the outcome occurring.
- Initial Pricing and Implied Probability: If that contract is priced at $0.30, the market price reflects a 30% probability of the Steelers win happening.
- Buying and Winning: If you buy a contract for $0.60 and the predicted outcome occurs, the contract settles at $1.00. You receive $1.00, pocketing a $0.40 profit per contract purchased.
- Selling for Intermediate Profit (Trading): You can sell your contracts all the way up until the market settles. If you bought a contract at $0.30 and the price subsequently moves to $0.50, you can sell your position for an immediate profit of $0.20 per contract.
This same set of economics applies to event contracts across all of the markets they offer, ranging from political markets to event contracts based on the price.
Again: one of the key differentiators with prediction market apps versus sports betting is that you can trade out of positions on event outcomes, all the way through settlement.
Another differentiator is that, unlike sports betting operators, prediction market operators don't take a "vig" like traditional sportsbooks do, instead relying on fees from trades to earn revenue.
HOW THE CFTC REGULATES US PREDICTION MARKETS
Regulation is at the cornerstone of prediction markets in the US, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) serves as the federal regulator to ensure prediction sites operate fairly, transparently, and without undue risk to traders across the country.
Officially established in 1974 under the Commodity Exchange Act, the CFTC is an independent US agency tasked with overseeing the derivatives markets, which also includes futures, options, and now event contracts like those found on prediction market sites.
Unlike state regulators that sports betting operators have to contend with, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission views prediction market platforms as financial instruments akin to futures, not games of chance.
This distinction is at the center of the prediction markets craze, allowing users to access prediction markets apps nationwide without needing 50 separate state regulators' approval.
The CFTC's oversight of prediction market platforms begins with registration requirements, as each must qualify as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), clearing through Derivatives Clearing Organizations, and complying with anti-manipulation rules.
What this means in practice for traditional prediction markets (such as Kalshi, which became the first of the national prediction markets to gain full CFTC approval), is a robust system of real-time surveillance for unusual trading, position limits to curb manipulation, and daily reporting to the CFTC's Division of Market Oversight.
To legally offer prediction contracts, platforms must meet several requirements set by the CFTC. These include forcing users to pass "Know Your Customer" (KYC) checks—with age minimums between 18 and 21, depending on the state—as well as maintaining segregated funds and transparent pricing.
Furthermore, the CFTC requires that platforms offer recourse via the National Futures Association (NFA).
VEGASINSIDER'S TOP PREDICTION MARKETS
Now that we have covered the basics of event trading and understand how prediction sites work, the time has now come to take a look at the best prediction market sites available on the market today.
Drawing on everything from user volumes, regulated status, accessibility, innovative features, safety, prediction market offerings and more, let's dive into our top picks as we start with the undisputed leader: Kalshi.
#1 PREDICTION MARKET: KALSHI
There is no doubt about it, Kalshi reigns supreme as VegasInsider's top prediction market, now capturing more than 40% of the US market share thanks to its CFTC approval and flawless blend of event outcomes postings on sports, politics, economics, culture, and much more.
First launched in 2021, Kalshi offers contracts via a unique API-driven interface, powering real-time insights via partnerships with global outlets such as CNN.
Now available in most states, Kalshi is also known for high limits ($100,000+) and earning users ~4% APY on idle cash, which is FDIC-insured up to $250,000. Offering peer-to-peer trading without a vig, fees are minimal, ranging from $0.02 to just over $1.50 per trade.
With more than 25 million+ trades in 2025, Kalshi is by far the most liquid, beginner-friendly hub we've researched, with sports prediction markets and political markets being its most liquid markets. Available nationwide, Kalshi also offers education tools such as probability graphs.
Whether you are a seasoned trader or a newbie, Kalshi is the gold standard. Use our Kalshi referral code
POLYMARKET
Whether you are looking to trade event contracts on election markets, sports outcomes, or current events, Polymarket accounts are another great option for a prediction market juggernaut.
The king when it comes to crypto-fueled prediction markets, Polymarket was the world's largest prediction market not long ago. With $10 billion in trading volume in 2025, it's important to note that it is not yet legal in the US for direct access due to prior CFTC fines; however, that is set to change soon.
Thanks to the September 2025 acquisition of QCEX, a licensed derivatives exchange, Polymarket has paved the way for a full legal re-launch imminently. Unlike other prediction markets on our list, Polymarket uniquely uses blockchain as its backbone, focusing on USDC stablecoins.
Offering real-time markets spanning across sports, politics, memes, and more, prices instantly update via decentralized market prices, offering global liquidity.
FANATICS MARKETS
Launched late in 2025, Fanatics Markets arrives on the scene as a versatile newcomer, adding to the Fanatics empire for seamless cross-overs. Starting as a sports merchandise giant, Fanatics flawlessly transitioned into sports betting and now the prediction market.
As the first traditional sportsbook to launch a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform, the rollout included 24 states in total, including major populations of California, Texas, Florida, and Washington - none of which have legal mobile sports betting. It also launched with a diversified marketplace, offering crypto prices, stock milestones, and culture events.
What really makes it stand out is its hybrid fiat/crypto funding and exclusive fan-voted markets, where accurate predictions are just a few clicks away. While it started with a focus on major sports (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB), expect niche markets to begin popping in the future.
NOVIG
Novig is another player in the increasingly crowded prediction market hub, focusing on sports prediction markets within the peer-to-peer prediction exchange.
Unlike traditional real-money prediction markets, Novig employs a sweepstakes model, where traders utilize a dual currency system, using Novig coins for practice and Novig cash for redeemable prizes.
Now legal in most US states, thanks to the Novig coins angle, Novig is pursuing a CFTC approval to cover its users who buy contracts in the US. A mobile-only platform, Novig is also a great option for users thanks to its bonuses. Try our Novig promo code
There is a social twist as well: users can converse with one another via group chats and a leaderboard, and the company plans to roll out broader markets once it gains CFTC approval.
PROPHETX
Focusing on sporting events, ProphetX has a lot of similarities to Novig's exchange model, but focuses on props and totals for the NFL, NBA, and soccer. You will find markets such as "Will Aaron Rodgers throw for 250+ yards?", with the market prices for the contracts at the implied probabilities.
Setting itself apart in the online platforms today, you can use our ProphetX promo code
The data analysis on ProphetX is also worth mentioning, as it offers dashboard graphs for volume and user sentiment, helping its traders to make data-driven decisions.
While they are slow to roll out new markets outside of sports, ProphetX is great for sports lovers and those with a background in daily fantasy sports.
PRIZEPICKS PREDICTION MARKETS
Speaking of daily fantasy sports, PrizePicks similarly runs its prediction market, with culture picks and team picks available for trading.
Though they are not fully federally regulated, PrizePicks Prediction Markets launched in 2025 with Kalshi ties, now available in 23+ states.
With a simplified pick 'em interface that mirrors their DFS product, PrizePicks is great for new users, who don't have its core DFS product because of state laws where they live.
CRYPTO.COM
Crypto.com launched a prediction arm this year as well, with theirs targeting sports diehards via yes/no contracts on the NBA, NHL, NFL, and soccer.
Funded by Bitcoin, ETH, or fiat currency, Crypto.com's prediction market hub is available in all 50 states and directly integrated into their 150 million-user exchange.
Using their own native token, CRO, users can also earn rewards with every trade and earn interest by keeping a CRO balance in their wallet. Great for global leagues like the English Premier League, and crypto lovers, of course.
Crypto.com is a must-have for blockchain lovers who now want to dabble in the prediction market space.
ROBINHOOD
Last but not least, no prediction markets list would be complete without mentioning Robinhood.
Powered by a Kalshi integration, Robinhood is available in all 50 states and focuses on sports event contracts. Offering its users 0% commission fees and free stock bonuses, the 25 million existing users of Robinhood in the US and has access today.
With its core financial services product regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Robinhood makes predictions as easy as buying Nvidia shares.
Be on the lookout for Robinhood to expand its offerings in the coming months, with the next presidential election right around the corner in 2028.
FUTURE PREDICTION MARKETS LAUNCHING SOON
The prediction market craze is just getting started, and 2026 should be the year that federally regulated prediction markets begin popping up in bunches.
As a result, big brands are getting involved in the estimated $10+ billion industry. Let's look at the future prediction markets on the horizon.
FANDUEL PREDICTS
CME Group, the company behind FanDuel Sportsbook, is set to launch FanDuel Predicts in the coming weeks, focusing on sports, as well as politics, economics, and even the weather.
Likely to first focus on non-sports betting states, such as California and South Carolina, FanDuel Predicts should be a standalone app, separate from their traditional sportsbook and DFS app.
With data analysis at the core of their brand, expect their 10M+ users to take to the new app right away.
BETR PREDICTIONS
Betr, which is a microbetting app, will also pivot to predictions by early 2026, emphasizing quick sports props and DFS crossovers in more than 20 states.
A recent submission to the CFTC for regulatory approval promises federal backing, and we expect bonuses similar to their DFS product.
This is a great product for small traders, offering bite-sized contracts perfect for social players.
OTHER POPULAR PREDICTION MARKETS
Beyond our top ranking, there is a vibrant array of niche players in the prediction market platforms space, offering contracts on everything from sports to presidential elections.
Let's take a closer look at the best of the rest in this VegasInsiders exclusive prediction market hub outlook guide.
MANIFOLD
Manifold is a social prediction market, offering crypto options and using a virtual currency ("Mana") or sweepcash with markets on everything from politics, economics, and pop culture.
Available in most US states, Manifold is free to play and comes with a low-risk sandbox, with community-voted markets.
Whether you are trading on an event within the Trump administration or movements on Wall Street, Manifold is a great option for beginners.
INTERACTIVE BROKERS
Interest in Interactive Brokers' ForecastTrader is also rising among other investors, as it is great for serious traders offering event contracts on politics, economics, and the climate.
Available in all 50 states, it's directly integrated with a brokerage, though it is still waiting for futures approval.
PREDICTIT
For those with an interest in Politics, PredictIt is the platform for you, as it offers markets covering statements from the White House, all the way through global elections.
With a cap of $850 per contract order, the liquidity is not quite there compared to other platforms we've covered. With academics being at the root of their information markets, PredictIt is a great platform for political junkies who think they have an edge on an outcome versus the market.
NINJA TRADERS
With a market available via Tradeovate, Ninja Traders is great for those looking to predict the outcome of financial markets closes, such as "Will the S&P go over 5,500 this week?"
For those with the ability to read charts, Ninja Traders offers a dynamic set of visuals compared to other sites we have covered.
As always, be on the lookout, however, for liquidity, which will indicate the market's ability to cover open positions.
RAILBIRD EXCHANGE
Last, but certainly not least, Railbird Exchanged gained CFTC approval in June 2025 and is currently prepping for the launch of prediction markets in economics, policy, and entertainment.
WHAT EVENT CONTRACT TYPES ARE POPULAR ON PREDICTION MARKETS?
The attractiveness of prediction markets is undeniable, offering a plethora of event contracts that take event uncertainties and form them into tradable contracts.
From the high stakes of political turmoil to outcomes of the NFL season, there is a contract out there for nearly every real-world event a trader can think of.
Across all the prediction market platforms we've covered today, below are a few of the most popular prediction markets users can trade into (and out) of:
- Sports: There are many more options than just who will win a game, including game winners, spreads, futures, awards and more.
- Politics: From the national to the state level, there is no shortage of political contracts to trade in the politics marketplace of prediction markets, where political junkies can win real money on their forecasts.
- Economics: Almost anything related to economics is covered on prediction markets, including inflation targets, Fed decisions, stock price closes, money moving crypto prices, and more. The economics/finance marketplace is just getting started, with more money flowing in each day.
- Pop Culture: Think album drop release dates, Oscar wins, box office hits, and more pop culture topics you can buy shares of.
- Trending News: Viral events such as the launch of the next iPhone or celeb scandals.
- Mentions: Will Trump mention a certain word in a given week, or will a broadcaster say a word during the broadcast of an NFL game.
- Climate: Hurricane paths on the way to a certain state, or the high/low temperature in a major US city.
- World Events: Geopolitical events, such as the War in Ukraine, Olympic medals, pandemic questions, and other global events.
Niche markets, such as Esports and AI milestones, as well as other technology-focused events, are also increasingly covered by prediction markets.
HOW DO PREDICTION MARKETS WORK EXACTLY?
At their core, prediction markets function as efficient information aggregators. The market sets the price of event outcomes based on the collective wisdom of all participating traders.
For every event, there are two binary contracts (Yes/No) on whether the event will occur. Prices for both sides range from $0.01 to $0.99, directly reflecting the implied odds.
For example, a "Yes" contract priced at $0.84 represents an 84% implied probability that the event will happen. The supply-and-demand nature provides a continuous stream of action, allowing the market price to fluctuate right up until the market settles.
How do you make money on prediction markets?
For every contract you purchase, you make (or lose) the difference between the contract price and the final settlement price of either $1 (a win) or $0 (a loss).
If you purchased the aforementioned share for $0.84 and are correct, you will profit $0.16 (less fees) per contract purchased. Unlike sportsbooks that set a vig on every wager, you will (in most cases) only pay a small fee on your winning trades.
WHAT STATES IN THE US HAVE PREDICTION MARKETS?
The legality of U.S. prediction markets hinges on a regulatory conflict between federal and state authorities.
- Federal Classification: The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) grants national access by classifying event contracts as derivatives (financial instruments), which are federally regulated.
- State Challenge: A growing number of states challenge this, arguing that sports-related prediction contracts are unlicensed gambling that falls under their state-level jurisdiction and laws.
- Contesting States: States actively challenging the CFTC's authority or issuing cease-and-desist orders include Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, Connecticut, Louisiana, and Massachusetts.
HOW TO TRADE ON SPORTS AT TOP PREDICTION MARKETS
Sports event trading work in a pretty straightforward fashion at the top prediction markets, as fans can turn their wisdom into profits via contracts.
Below are a few of the most popular ways to trade on sports:
- Event Winner: These are the simplest contracts, asking traders to predict which team or competitor will win the match. The contract for the winning side settles at $1.00, and the loser settles at $0.00.
- Point Spreads: This type of contract introduces a handicap to an uneven matchup. You buy a contract on whether a favorite will win by more than the set spread, or whether the underdog will win outright or lose by less than the spread.
- Totals: Also known as Over/Under, these contracts ask you to predict whether the combined score of both teams will land Over or Under a pre-set total number of points established by the market.
- Futures: These are long-term contracts based on outcomes far in advance, such as which team will win a championship, which player will win MVP, or which coach will be hired. They can be traded for profit all season long.
IMPORTANT PREDICTION MARKET TERMS TO KNOW
Before you begin trading on prediction markets, there are a handful of key terms you will want to know to unlock the platform you choose to its full potential:
| TERM | DEFINITION |
|---|---|
| Order Book | Real-time list of all the open buy and sell orders on a given contract, which will tell you the liquidity of a market. |
| Trade | The official act of buying or selling a contract at the current market price. |
| Contract | A yes/no financial instrument that is tied to a specific event, priced between $0.01 and $0.99. |
| Graph | A visual chart that displays the contract's price history, as well as the liquidity in a given market. |
| Implied Probability | The market's estimate of the chance an event happens, equal to the contract's current price. |
| Ask Price | The lowest price that someone is willing to sell a contract at. |
| Bid Price | The highest price that someone is willing to buy a contract at. |
| Early Exit | Selling your contract position before an event to lock in a profit or cut your losses. |
| Volume | The total number of contracts bought or sold on a given market in a given period. This indicates overall interest and liquidity. |
| Position | Your current holding of a given contract, either long (yes) or short (no). |
| Settlement | The final payout process once an event resolves, crediting $1 per winning contract and $0 if the contract loses. |
| Expiry | The exact date and time for when an event is scheduled to resolve (settle), and the contract officially closes the trading window. |
PREDICTION MARKETS VS STOCK MARKETS
Prediction markets and stock markets share commonalities like bid/ask, liquidity, and volatility, but they also differ.
While stocks represent company ownership, valued on long-term fundamentals with unlimited upside, event contracts have a limited shelf life and are only valuable before settlement.
Though stock prices can reflect market sentiment in some cases, prediction market contracts rely on sentiment as the sole mechanism for price movement.
Both markets carry plenty of risk, including market manipulation and black swan events.
COMMON BANKING OPTIONS ON PREDICTION MARKETS
Funding prediction markets is straightforward and secure, mirroring fintech norms that have been approved by the CFTC. Below are a few of the most common banking options across prediction market apps:
- ACH Transfers
- Debit/Credit Cards
- Wire Transfers
- Cryptocurrency
PREDICTION MARKETS AND RESPONSIBLE TRADING
Just like with sports betting, responsible trading is critical in prediction markets as the excitement can often get people carried away into dangerous territory.
First and foremost, it's important to remember these are speculative instruments, and should not be considered a reliable source of regular income.
Below are some of the most common responsible trading tools that can be found on prediction market apps:
- Self-Exclusion Lists
- Timeout limits
- Educational resources
- Daily deposit maxes
- Diversification tips
VEGASINSIDER'S EXPERT PREDICTION MARKETS TIPS
With the VegasInsider exclusive prediction market hub recap coming to a close, we are confident we've given you all the tools you need for success.
As liquidity increases across the industry, below are some expert tips to send you on your way to becoming a successful trader:
- Research, Research, Research: Cross-reference your hunch and the implied probabilities across not just other prediction markets, but other sources too.
- Take Advantage of Bonuses: Take advantage of the bonuses offered by sites like Kalshi and Novig, using the bonus funds to stack your bankroll.
- Find Liquidity: Whatever market you decide to go into, make sure there is enough liquidity to cover your positions should the sentiment change.
- Diversify Your Portfolio: With so many markets available, diversify across everything from sports, politics, economics, and others.
- Track Taxes: Make sure to log your trades to monitor your capital gains in a given year.
- Practice First: Using some of the social prediction market apps mentioned above, use their free modes to learn the basic mechanics of how the sites work.
PREDICTION MARKETS FAQS
Still got questions on this exploding industry? Our thorough FAQ section answers the essential questions remaining:
WHAT ARE PREDICTION MARKETS?
Prediction markets are CFTC-regulated platforms for trading on binary event contracts, ranging from sports, politics, pop culture, the weather, economics, and much more. Prices are crowd-sourced and fluctuate based on the probabilities of the market forecasting they will happen.
WHAT ARE THE MOST POPULAR PREDICTION MARKETS?
The most popular prediction markets in 2025 are Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, Crypto.com, and Robinhood.
CAN YOU MAKE MONEY ON PREDICTION MARKETS?
Yes, you can profit on prediction markets by buying low-probability contracts that resolve in your favor, or selling contracts early before news hits the price.
ARE PREDICTION MARKETS LEGAL IN THE US?
Prediction markets are regulated federally nationwide under CFTC guidance, as they are classified as derivatives, not gambling. They're available in most states, but depend on each platform. State challenges still exist for some platforms for sports contracts.
WHAT SPORTS TRADES ARE ON PREDICTION MARKETS?
Sporting event contracts cover everything from straight-up winners, spreads, totals, team props, and futures. Most prediction market sites cover the major sports - NFL, NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, college football and college basketball - but more niche markets are beginning to hit the marketplace each month.
ARE PREDICTION MARKETS SAFE?
Yes, CFTC-regulated prediction markets, such as Kalshi, are completely safe and secure. Under CFTC oversight, funds are segregated, quick settlements are ensured, and there is also surveillance against market manipulation.
ARE THERE VIGS OR FEES ON PREDICTION MARKETS?
Almost all prediction markets do not have a traditional vig, as sportsbooks do, instead relying on charging spreads (0.5 - 2%) per trade, or a flat fee ($0.02 - $1.70) per trade.
HOW DO PREDICTION MARKETS TRADES WORK?
Prediction market trades work by offering yes/no contracts that you can buy/sell, with prices reflecting the implied probability of an event happening. You will earn $1 for every contract that settles in your favor, with the delta between what you bought being your profit, per contract.
WHAT RISKS ARE INVOLVED WITH PREDICTION MARKETS?
The key risks involved are financial losses if your prediction is wrong, liquidity issues in smaller markets, market manipulation, and potential addiction to the excitement.