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Last Updated Jul 02, 2022, 23:58 PM

UFC 276 Betting Odds Analysis

The most anticipated UFC card of the summer is UFC 276 on Fourth of July weekend. Israel Adesanya will defend his UFC Middleweight Championship against Jared Cannonier in the main event, and Alexander Volkanovski will face Max Holloway for the UFC Featherweight Championship for the third time in the co-main event. We will also see former UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Miesha Tate face Lauren Murphy, and fan favorite Robbie Lawler will also be in action.

UFC 276 will take place on Saturday, July 2, 2022, from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.  


We saw betting odds for UFC 276 open in early May, and reigning champion Israel Adesanya was installed as a heavy favorite. Adesanya initially was pegged as a -334 favorite, and his odds have slowly risen to currently make him a -350 favorite against Jared Cannonier. 


There are plenty of sites to bet Adesanya vs. Cannonier, and you can compare the odds at multiple licensed sportsbooks in the United States.

Adesanya (c)-350-350-350


Israel Adesanya had trouble with Jan Blachowicz’s size when he moved up a division to face Blachowicz for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship 16 months ago at UFC 259. His power didn’t mean the same at light heavyweight, leading to his only loss as a professional MMA fighter.

Adesanya is a perfect 22-0 as a middleweight though, and he has had a stranglehold on this division for the last three years. He has quality stopping power at 185 pounds while also showcasing his superior stamina time and time again in the Octagon. The Last Stylebender has yet to score a submission victory, but his takedown defense is strong, and his kicks can stop opponents in their tracks if they shoot for his legs due to his background as an extremely successful kickboxer.

This will be the first time that Jared Cannonier has challenged for a title in the UFC. Cannonier started his career as a heavyweight, but he quickly moved down to light heavyweight after joining the UFC, and he settled as a middleweight after going 3-4 in those two divisions. Cannonier is 5-1 as a middleweight, and he has scored knockout wins inside of two rounds in four of his five wins.

Cannonier will have a difficult time against Adesanya though. He does not have a strong ground game, and he is giving up four inches and 2.5 inches of reach to the champion. That will allow Adesanya to keep Cannonier from getting inside, and the reigning champion will punish the challenger repeatedly with his stinging kicks.

Prediction: Israel Adesanya defeats Jared Cannonier by Unanimous Decision

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Israel Adesanya UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5 Fights)

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2
(WIN) Israel Adesanya (-275) vs. Robert Whittaker

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
(WIN) Israel Adesanya (-220) vs. Martin Vettori

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
(LOSS) Israel Adesanya (-225) vs. Jan Blachowicz

UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
(WIN) Israel Adesanya (-189) vs. Paulo Costa

UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
(WIN) Israel Adesanya (-265) vs. Yoel Romero

Jared Cannonier UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5 Fights)

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2
(WIN) Jared Cannonier (-154) vs. Derek Brunson

UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
(WIN) Jared Cannonier (-144) vs. Kelvin Gastelum

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
(LOSS) Jared Cannonier (-120) vs. Robert Whittaker

UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
(WIN) Jared Cannonier (+235) vs. Jack Hermansson

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
(WIN) Jared Cannonier (-125) vs. Anderson Silva




Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway will square off for the third time in less than three years as the co-main event for UFC 276. Volkanovski has won both of his previous meetings with Holloway, but a lot of observers think that Holloway will be able to reclaim the UFC Featherweight Championship in their third meeting.

There was no doubt that Volkanovski was the better fighter in his first match against Holloway. He repeatedly kept Holloway at bay with strong leg kicks, shutting down his opponent’s explosive capabilities. It was Holloway’s first loss at featherweight in over six years, and Holloway had successfully defended the belt three times before that loss.

The former champion was much better in the rematch seven months later. Holloway adjusted his strategy to not allow Volkanovski to connect on the leg kicks as often in the first two rounds, and he won those rounds on all three judge’s scorecards after connecting with late blows. However, Volkanovski roared back to win rounds three and four on every judge’s scorecard to set up a winner-take-all fifth round. It went back and forth, but two of the three judges thought that Volkanovski did enough to take the round, and he kept his title belt with a controversial split decision victory.

Volkanovski is 24-1 in his MMA career and has won 21 straight fights. He was a heavy favorite against The Korean Zombie three months ago, but he isn’t that big of a favorite in his third match against Holloway although he won both previous showdowns.

Holloway was dominant and won Fight of the Night bonuses for his unanimous decision victories over Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez in his last two fights. He hasn’t scored a knockout since stopping Brian Ortega in late 2018 though, and it’s pretty likely that this match goes the distance given what we saw in the previous meetings. Neither one of these fighters is likely to score a submission victory, so ignore the tempting odds with that fight outcome.

It's not the most aesthetically pleasing, but the footwork and reach of Volkanovski gives him an edge over Holloway. While Holloway is 5’11, he only has a 69-inch reach, and that limits what he can do against Volkanovski. The current champion is only 5’6, but he has a 71-inch reach, and his more compact frame makes him harder to hit. 

Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski defeats Max Holloway by Decision

Alexander Volkanovski UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5 Fights)

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
(WIN) Alexander Volkanovski (-550) vs. Chan Sung Jung

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
(WIN) Alexander Volkanovski (-178) vs. Brian Ortega

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
(WIN) Alexander Volkanovski (-189) vs. Max Holloway

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
(WIN) Alexander Volkanovski (+170) vs. Max Holloway

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
(WIN) Alexander Volkanovski (+125) vs. Jose Aldo

Max Holloway UFC Betting Lines History (Last 5 Fights)

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez
(WIN) Max Holloway (-570) vs. Yair Rodriguez

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
(WIN) Max Holloway (-150) vs. Calvin Kattar

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
(LOSS) Max Holloway (+165) vs. Alexander Volkanovski

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
(LOSS) Max Holloway (-195) vs. Alexander Volkanovski

UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
(WIN) Max Holloway (-330) vs. Frankie Edgar

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