Wisconsin vs. Michigan State Predictions, Odds

  • December 25, 2020
  • By David Schwab
  • VegasInsider.com

In the first of four Big Ten matchups on Christmas Day, the No. 9 Wisconsin Badgers head on the road to the Breslin Center to face the No. 12 Michigan State Spartans. Tip-off on FOX is set for 12:30 p.m. (ET).



Wisconsin-Michigan State Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Wisconsin -1
  • Money-Line: Wisconsin -125 Michigan State +102
  • Total: 140

Odds Subject to Change

Wisconsin opened as a slight +1.5-point underdog but the spread has shifted quickly to favor the road team by 1.5-points. The total line is currently set at 140 points.

The Badgers’ lone straight-up loss against seven wins came against Marquette on Dec. 4. After failing to cover as heavy favorites in their Big Ten opener against Nebraska, they are 4-4 against the spread.

The total has gone OVER in five of the eight games. Wisconsin is 0-12 SU in its last 12 road games against Michigan State and it is 6-13 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall. The total has gone OVER in six of its last nine conference games.

Michigan State was stunned by Northwestern 79-65 in its Big Ten opener closing as a -7.5-point road favorite. This was its first loss of the season against six SU wins while going 2-5 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in three of its last five games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the Spartans’ last six games against Wisconsin.


Betting Analysis – Wisconsin Badgers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-1
  • ATS: 3-4-1
  • SU - Home: 7-0
  • SU - Away: 0-1
  • O/U: 5-3

This will be a big test for the Badgers given their past track record against this conference rival. Team depth is a major plus with five players averaging at least nine points a game.

Forward Micah Potter has led the way with 13.4 points and he also leads the team in rebounds with 7.3 a game. Guards’ Brad Davison and D’Mitrik Trice are each adding 11 points per game. Davidson is shooting 40.4% from the field and he has connected on 47.1% of his three-point shots.

The Badgers are scoring an average of 77.3 PPG while shooting 45.8% from the field. Their field-goal percentage is a solid 41.8 from three-point range.

Defensively, they are holding opposing teams to just 57.5 points. Total rebounds a game average 36 with 32.3 on defense.

Betting Analysis – Michigan State Spartans

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-1
  • ATS: 2-5
  • SU - Home: 5-0
  • SU - Away: 1-1
  • O/U: 4-3

The sloppy 14-point loss to Northwestern this past Sunday is hard to explain. Even long-time head coach Tom Izzo called his team’s performance “inept.”

This could actually work as a source of motivation in Friday’s matchup. The keys to overall success this season have been forwards Joey Hauser and Aaron Henry. They are each averaging around 12 points while combining for 14.3 rebounds. However, Hauser still has a question mark next to his name for Friday with a knee injury.

Overall, the Spartans have put up an average of 82 PPG and they are shooting 46.9% from the field. That drops to 34.6% beyond the three-point line. They are pulling down 41.7 rebounds a game.

Solid defense has been an issue at times this season with a points-allowed average of 73.3. Michigan State matches up well in defensive boards with 32.1 a game.

Inside the Stats – Wisconsin Badgers

  • PS/G: 77.2 (108th)
  • PA/G: 57.5 (15th)
  • Off Rtg: 114.4 (36th)
  • Def Rtg: 85.2 (31st)

Inside the Stats – Michigan State Spartans

  • PS/G: 98.7 (1st)
  • PA/G: 72.9 (231st)
  • Off Rtg: 128.9 (2nd)
  • Def Rtg: 95.1 (145th)

Key Players to Watch

  • WIS - Micah Potter (13.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG)
  • WIS - D'Mitrik Trice (11 PPG, 3.4 APG)
  • MSU - Joey Hauser (12.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG)
  • MSU - Aaron Henry (12 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.9 APG)

Wisconsin-Michigan StatePredictions

My first instinct is to go with Michigan State SU on the money line given its dominance over Wisconsin on its home court. Yet, there is some concern over Hauser’s availability for this game.

If for some reason he cannot go, I would hold off on betting the side. At 140 points, my lean for a total line bet is OVER. Playing in the featured Big Ten matchup on Christmas Day should add some juice to each team’s performance on offense.

Once again, Hauser’s situation could impact this bet but I think he will be ready to go.

  • Score Prediction: Michigan State 72 Wisconsin 70
  • Best Bets: Michigan State
  • Best Bets: OVER

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