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Arkansas vs. LSU Predictions, Odds

 

  • January 13, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham
  • VegasInsider.com

The Arkansas Razorbacks head to Baton Rouge, Louisiana to face the LSU Tigers in a crucial SEC game. Tip is set for 7 p.m. (ET) and will air on ESPN2.

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WHERE TO BET ARKANSAS-LSU

Arkansas-LSU Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: LSU -2
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 156.5

Odds Subject to Change

LSU opened as a -4-point favorite, although that spread has dropped to just -2 for the home Tigers. LSU is 4-6 when trying to cover the spread this season, while Arkansas has covered seven of 11 games.

The point total is set at 156.5, a bit high. It makes sense though, as both teams have two of the most efficient offensives in the country. Arkansas has gone OVER in seven of 11 games, although LSU is just 5-6 on the O/U.

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Betting Analysis – Arkansas Razorbacks

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-2
  • ATS: 7-3-1
  • SU - Home: 9-1
  • SU - Away: 1-1
  • O/U: 7-3-1

Arkansas quietly has the ninth-most points scored per game, nearly touching 90. The Razorbacks almost touched 100 against Georgia, and saw 85 points or more in five of their last six games prior to the Missouri-Tennessee stretch. The one time they failed to touch 85, they scored 79.

Coming from Nevada, Eric Musselman's offense has never really been a big concern. His Razorbacks attempt the 31st-most three pointers per game in the country (27.2), make the 27th-most three-pointers per game in the country (9.7), attempt the fourth-most field goals per game in the country (67.3) and convert on the 34th-most free throws per game (16.3).

They can also get big, averaging 43.3 rebounds per game (sixth-best in nation) and 5.3 blocks per game (13th-best in nation). Arkansas gets steals (8.3 per game ranks 54th) and pass the ball very well (16 assists per game ranks 56th). There's a lot to like about this Razorbacks team, although this game against LSU becomes the ultimate measuring stick after losing to two top SEC schools in Missouri and Tennessee.

Freshman Moses Moody could be the conference player of the year, averaging 16.7 points per game and 5.6 boards too. What's great about Moody is that he has plenty of experience to lean on with other Razorbacks. JD Notre averages over 15 points per game, while both Desi Stills and Jalen Tate average a double-digit point total.

With Justin Smith out, Arkansas loses their leading rebounder which means Connor Vanover will need to pickup the slack. What's scary to consider with Arkansas is that with the high-powered offense, they actually have a solid defense.

It's not a defense to rely on in order to win games, but it's efficient. Arkansas allows 67.2 points per game and has an efficiency rating at 88.6, which ranks 27th nationally. Arkansas' overall resume isn't very impressive, but they have competed well against good teams despite not being able to close them out.

Betting Analysis – LSU Tigers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-2
  • ATS: 4-6
  • SU - Home: 7-0
  • SU - Away: 1-2
  • O/U: 4-5-1

For as good of an offense Arkansas has, LSU's is just as good. Will Wade is one of the most creative coaches on offense, and the Tigers are showcasing it. They average the 14th-most points per game at 85.6.

Their efficiency rating ranks ninth in the nation, which is slightly better than the visiting Razorbacks. LSU has four different players who average 13 points or more per game, beginning with Cameron Thomas.

This will be a fun battle of freshman between Thomas and Moody, so expect both players to put on a show to try and carry their teams. The rebounding doesn't come from Thomas however, as Trendon Watford and Darius Days are the main glass contributors for LSU.

Watford also averages four assists per game, so despite Thomas getting the offensive attention it seems justified to believe Watford is the most important Tiger. Javonte Smart rounds out a solid group of players, averaging 4.1 assists per game. What seems to be the issue for LSU then?

It seems the defensive post is a pretty big issue, only seeing 2.2 blocked shots per game which ranks an atrocious 282nd nationally. Anyone who can get to the rim virtually scores on LSU, so expect a high-scoring game in what should be a sprint to the finish line between both clubs.

Inside the Stats – Arkansas Razorbacks

  • PS/G: 88.2 (9th)
  • PA/G: 67.2 (115th)
  • Off Rtg: 116.1 (13th)
  • Def Rtg: 88.6 (27th)

Inside the Stats – LSU Tigers

  • PS/G: 85.6 (14th)
  • PA/G: 70 (179th)
  • Off Rtg: 117.7 (9th)
  • Def Rtg: 96.3 (148th)

Key Players to Watch

  • ARK - Moses Moody (16.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG)
  • ARK - JD Notae (15.4 PPG)
  • LSU - Cameron Thomas (22.3 PPG)
  • LSU - Tendron Watford (17.8 PPG, 6.7 RPG)

Arkansas-LSU Predictions

The best odds to play lie with Arkansas, although LSU is the home team and possibly better. For simplicity sakes, let's call the rosters even. Arkansas is 7-3-1 ATS and O/U. Considering the point total trends discussed already for both schools, the OVER seems justified here.

Both teams should touch 80, which hits 160 and OVER. For the even talent though, live betting a winner SU would be the best play here. Either team can win, as the game may very well come down to a jump shot or even go in to overtime. Don't let the 75-61 game LSU played against Ole Miss scare you too much, as the Rebels are 1-9 on the O/U this season.

  • Score Prediction: LSU 81 Arkansas 80
  • Best Bets: OVER

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